What to expect next in Oilers-Blues offer-sheet drama

EDMONTON — A double offer sheet deployed against a cash-strapped contender. This hook is going to be hard for the Edmonton Oilers to wriggle off.

An Oilers roster without many young, cheap players just lost its two primary candidates, as defenceman Philip Broberg and forward Dylan Holloway accepted offer sheets from the St. Louis Blues for significantly more than their market value.

But are the numbers — $4,580,917 for Broberg, $2,290,457 for Holloway, both on two-year contracts — so far out of whack that Edmonton will simply say goodbye to one or both players, the way the Montreal Canadiens did when Carolina gave Jesperi Kotkaniemi that $6.1 million deal back in 2021?

So, in light of the fact the Oilers have a week to make this decision, let’s explore some options that new general manager Stan Bowman has, as he begins his tenure in Edmonton with a massive gut punch.

Let ‘em both walk

Neither of these players constitute the difference between winning and losing a Stanley Cup. They are, rather, a big part of the future for an Oilers club that has dealt away enough picks over the recent years that the pipeline is slim indeed.

It is hard to stomach, however, trading away a couple of first-rounders — Holloway went 14th overall in 2020, Broberg eighth in 2019 — for a third- and second-round draft pick, respectively, the compensation required from St. Louis on both offer sheets.

But, you could say that Holloway’s body of work can be replaced fairly easily. And Broberg, well, a team that has to sign Leon Draisaitl and Even Bouchard in time for next season simply can’t have a $4.6-million defenceman who may never be worth that sum.

One thing to remember, though: The Oilers lost both Ryan McLeod and Warren Foegele earlier this summer. If you let Holloway go, that is some serious speed being removed from a forward group that added Viktor Arvidsson (31), Jeff Skinner (32), while bringing back Corey Perry (39), Adam Henrique (34) and a few other vets.

Edmonton needs Holloway’s speed, which is why we think he’ll stay.

Keep Holloway, say ‘bye to Broberg

Hockey logic suggests that you’d prefer to keep a 23-year-old defenceman over a 22-year-old winger — even at twice the price. But work with me here.

The trade-deadline market for defencemen is always strong, and you can find — at least for the 2025 playoffs — a D-man who will more than make up for Broberg’s absence, using the Blues’ second-round pick.

In matching the nearly $2.3-million Holloway contract, Bowman will have no problem fitting that in — assuming Evander Kane is destined for LTIR. Then you go to the free-agent market and grab a right-shot defenceman such as Tyson Barrie, Justin Schultz or Kevin Shattenkirk to get you to the deadline. There, you upgrade using the Blues pick, and Barrie or Schultz moves down a notch on a relatively strong D corps.

Frankly, it’s a fairly easy decision to match on Holloway, and Blues GM Doug Armstrong knows that. Coupled with the Broberg decision, it becomes a lot more complex. Armstrong knows that too.

Retain Broberg, let Holloway go

Of the two, we see Broberg having a much larger impact in Edmonton long-term. It would seriously sting to see him leave for peanuts, after the way he stepped in and took Vincent Desharnais’ job in the most intense games of the season last spring.

But the money is steep, and the Oilers are $7,225,000 over the cap at this moment, with the two offer sheets and Kane ($5.125 million) on the books.

Bowman would likely have to attach a draft pick to Cody Ceci (who's in the last year of his deal at $3.25 million) and trade him out, if he wants to keep Broberg. Then he’d have to hope that Broberg lived up to his salary for the next two seasons, before the Oilers would have to qualify him at the same number just to retain his rights.

The easy decision is to match on Holloway and use the second-round pick to shore up your blueline at the trade deadline.

How did we get here?

Former GM Ken Holland could have dangled a new deal to either or both players last season, when they were either in Bakersfield or not fulfilling big roles in Edmonton. But would they have signed for a team that has mis-developed them over the years? If I’m their agent, I would not have advised them to sign.

Remember when then-head coach Jay Woodcroft would sit a young Holloway every time he made a mistake, turning the youngster into a ball of nerves who knew the coach didn’t trust him? Now, at a moment when Holloway’s career could be turning the corner, the Oilers bring in Skinner at left wing and leave Holloway fighting with Mattias Janmark to stay off the fourth line.

Then there’s Broberg, who fell victim to Woodcroft’s seven-man defence corps — which meant he played about four minutes a night and had his confidence drained. Today, the Oilers have not even a spot on Broberg’s natural left side to offer him, instead forcing their best defensive prospect to make his way on the wrong side of the ice.

It’s no wonder both of these players did not remain loyal to the Oil. They’ve both been mishandled, to a certain extent.

Now, Bowman and CEO of hockey operations Jeff Jackson will have to plan their way through this.

Let’s hope they handle these two prospects better than the last regime did.