What the Maple Leafs' play against St. Louis tells us about their playoff chances

The Toronto Maple Leafs were missing Morgan Rielly, Mitch Marner and John Tavares, three players from what you’d deem their five-player core, which made it tempting to write them off heading into Tuesday night’s game versus the red-hot St. Louis Blues. The only reason you wouldn’t write off the Leafs, though, is if you’ve followed this team much at all over the past several years. Their own fans find them insanely maddening, as they constantly zig when they should zag.

Their backwardness is evidenced by a 5-6-3 record against the league’s bottom-six teams — the worst record of any team in a playoff spot against that group.

But the Leafs also consistently win when they should lose, as demonstrated by their excellent record without Rielly in the lineup, or their equally-as-good record without Auston Matthews in the lineup, or just about any time they're playing poorly enough that the noise around the team gets loud. They’ll go down five goals to Columbus (shocking), complete the full comeback in a single period (shocking), and still find a way to lose ... because Leafs.

So, yes, you’d call their exceptional performance in a 4-1 win against St. Louis baffling were it not entirely predictable.

In the first period alone, William Nylander was a defensive stalwart, paying attention to his own zone in a way I wouldn’t call common for him mid-season:

Max Domi played 18-plus minutes (his most as a Leaf) and was excellent. Nick Robertson was a puck-hound and an offensive threat. And the absolutely stymied Tyler Bertuzzi played the best hockey game a player can possibly have without registering a single point. His total of expected goals for while on the ice was about the same as the entire St. Louis Blues team combined.

Bobby McMann had two goals on the year before scoring three in that single game. Jake McCabe looked like an NHL All-Star. And, all told, the Leafs gave up some of their lowest totals of shots and chances and expected goals over the course of the entire season.

It was a complete team effort, and instructive about what they can be the rest of this season and into playoffs.

In theory.

Though by now we know how the Toronto Maple Leafs steadily defy “what should happen, in theory.”

You’re familiar with the phrase “new coach bump,” which players and executives will tell you happens after a coach is replaced because players revert to giving Max Effort. First impressions mean everything, and a good one will lead to better opportunities such as more ice time, better linemates, and special teams minutes. When you get 18 skaters giving maximum effort at the same time, you tend to get some positive results, and voila, there’s your new coach bump.

But that implies guys aren’t always giving maximum effort.

When the puck drops on playoff hockey we're always reminded “Oh right, these guys do have another gear.” It’s crashing and banging and desperation on every play, and it’s absolutely electric.

Hockey’s dirty secret is that if we lopped the scheduled games in half, the product would be far better. You simply cannot play at that playoff pace for an absurd 82 games and keep your body intact. There are back to backs with travel and four games in six nights and sleeping on planes, and you just can’t.

So guys take nights off, and I don’t mean consciously. They think they’re trying, I’ve been there. But there are moments as a player when you can see something potentially bad unfolding and conclude “Ah, it probably won’t,” and suddenly the puck's in the back of your net. But, more often than not, it doesn’t end up in the back of your net, the play goes the other way and nothing comes of it. In a game that really matters you might conclude “I better get back just in case things break the wrong way here.”

And so when you have a top-heavy team like the Leafs that’s asked the same five players to carry the mail for 82 straight games, and you don’t give much opportunity to the other 13 skaters most nights, you’re at the mercy of the games those stars subconsciously take off.

This brings us back to, “How are the Leafs so bad against the bottom teams,” because it’s pretty evident — when do you think those core players are most likely to let off the gas pedal? This is how you end up with a poor record against bad teams despite still playing the heck out of your top guys in those games. (This is also a fair criticism of Toronto's coaching at times — when the top guys aren’t going, they’ve been too slow to dial back the usage and give others a chance.)

Oddly, Toronto's reality of losing to bad teams combined with their Tuesday night showing against St. Louis (who took a bit of a night off themselves) should give the Leafs some hope.

For the first time, Sheldon Keefe was in a scenario where he really had to play some of his “underachieving” depth more, and those players didn't just answer the bell, they showed there may just be more to get from them yet. Robertson’s tracking back on the puck was a particular bright spot.

You may think I’m being over the top here, but I do not say this in jest: I’m not sure there are 10 guys in the league who can fire a wrist/snap shot harder than Robertson. Here’s a great takeaway followed by his typically a-bit-too-slow release (take a stride or let it go!), then goodness is that puck on top of Jordan Binnington before the guy has time to think.

Beyond Robertson you can see a world where the Leafs' depth isn’t as abhorrent as it’s been painted, it’s just been underused and undervalued. You see some of the potential names the Leafs are after in trade — Boone Jenner, Chris Tanev and the like. Any addition would push current Leafs down further and make the team look even deeper. If Domi pushes like he did Tuesday night and brings that scrappiness in the playoffs, you could see him having value. If Bertuzzi starts to get some bounces and confidence at the right time, he could have another post-season like he did last year with Boston.

McMann is big and skates well and can shoot it, and there’s more to get from David Kampf yet, too. Pontus Holmberg has had moments. There’s a world where the Leafs could have a third line that chips in and a fourth line that’s just … fine.

This is a team that’s still going to have real problems, barring the addition of two very good defencemen. They’re still not going to be the grittiest core. The goaltending is a wild card.

But in interviewing Doug Armstrong yesterday — the Blues President and GM — he provided a reminder of how some years just go wrong, but some other years just go right, and so all you can do is get in the dance and hope it’s your year each season.

No, your best guys simply can’t put the hammer down 82 times in a season, but they can in big moments. And because the ceiling of the Leafs' core is as high as it is, we know that a run of that kind of play with even average goaltending will give them a chance in any playoff series.

Seeing the Leafs' “others,” their “Team B,” their “non-core” players commit to chasing down pucks, team defence, and the little things the very first time they got the chance to play a lot should be encouraging for Toronto fans. Maybe there’s more past the core.

They’re not going to head into the playoffs as any type of favourite. They’ve actually had to manage some adversity this regular season, and for once their playoff positioning isn’t set, meaning they’ve got to keep pushing for every point. These aren’t necessarily bad things.

This Leafs team is definitely not "better" compared to the past few, but if nothing else it is absolutely different. And, given the same ol’ outcomes in the past, maybe this group will provide yet one more zig when their fans expect a zag.