Which players could Maple Leafs least afford to lose in race for playoff spot?

TORONTO — Heading into the game against the Calgary Flames, Kirill Marchenko had played 11 games in October and had points in 10 of them. In that last game, he managed only seven minutes of playing time before hurting his leg, and that night the Leafs fell a single goal short (before empty-netters) of getting to overtime. 

Two days later, the Toronto Maple Leafs would again fall short of overtime by a goal (versus Seattle), and six days later they’d fall a goal short against Utah. 

Does Marchenko make a play against Calgary, Seattle or Utah to help the club in a positive way? Does him getting his usual 17-18 minutes mean fewer minutes to a lesser player, pushing the game in the right direction more often? 

Maybe. 

What about if they also have John Tavares, who, like Marchenko, has put up a point per game (though in 16:30 a night). Would more of these players, and less of elevated depth guys, have been enough to make a difference? 

At some point you have to just say, Yeah, well, of course it would have. Chris Tanev’s injury has likely cost them too.

Now, of course, the Leafs aren't the only team to suffer injuries, and it’s not against the law to win when guys are out. Montreal has been missing Ivan Demidov (and, more recently, Nick Suzuki) and done just fine, save for the latest meltdown against Winnipeg (which Suzuki probably doesn’t allow to happen). The Ottawa Senators have missed some quality D-men and are off to a great start. 

So, yes, the Leafs struggling in the absence of two of their top-six forwards is reflective of a team that maybe lacks enough depth to claim “next man up” is going to be a viable way to have success. But at the same time — save for those specific examples given — most teams who’ve had injuries haven’t lost players of this calibre, nor to the exact spot where it would hurt their teams most. 

The Leafs' best chance of having a successful season is built on the fact that they’ve got a pile of high-end skill forwards. It’s going to be Auston Matthews, and William Nylander, and Kirill Marchenko. Tavares gets points, Gavin McKenna is a wizard with the puck, Easton Cowan can produce, Jack Roslovic is en fuego, like this was supposed to be the ballgame for them. 

They were to have a veteran, steady D-core that wasn’t special, but ideally would hold their heads above water, and they’d have to get some saves while their skill just out-finished their opponents. It’s their one true weapon, and thinning it by two dropped them down to a more commonplace forward group, and as you’ve seen in the results, they’re often falling just that one goal short. 

The conclusion for me then, after having watched this for awhile, is that if the Leafs are to make the playoffs this year, they absolutely have to be healthy. Plenty of teams can say that, and it can be true for plenty of teams. Injuries are inevitable and so teams hang on this uncertainty, living beneath the hanging sword of Injuries. 

Who has success and who doesn’t in the regular season can feel like watching a roulette ball bouncing across the spinning numbers as the wheel slows and we await to see whose cursed number it falls on next. 

With that in mind, I’ve had the question in my mind: “Which injuries can the Leafs absolutely not afford if they hope to have any chance to make playoffs?” And, "Which ones would hurt the team most, based on their unique team construction?" 

I’ve intimated how I feel about that above (forward skill), but I thought it would be a fun exercise to power-rank the players who are the most essential to be in the lineup for this particular team to have success. They’ve got a great sport science and medicine team, by all accounts, and so these guys are on high alert. Below is my best guess of an importance power ranking, with some very short explanations in tow. 

1. Auston Matthews: Obvious. Captain, top time-on-ice, top points, best defender, their absolute guy. 

2. Darren Raddysh: Plays three minutes more per game than the next-most-used Maple Leaf (including Matthews), runs their successful power play, 41 shots in 17 games, plays top competition with Jake McCabe now, is just a crucial player for them.

3. William Nylander: Say what you will about his ups and downs, he’s top-15 in NHL scoring (on pace for 105 points), and this whole framework of “offensive dominance” collapses without one of their featured game breakers.

4. Kirill Marchenko: I focused on this from the jump, but worth noting that he’s also one of the bright spots of speed and neutral-zone play that helps his teammates get into the O-zone. Without him, the Leafs look slower.

5. Jake McCabe: I know we’ve been talking offence, but while those guys chase glory, McCabe just eats the crap sandwich every night and doesn’t complain. Fourth in TOI behind Raddysh, Matthews and Nylander, he gets the D-zone starts and toughest competition, and it’s scary to think how their other D would look in that role. 

6. Chris Tanev: They’ve been without him a lot or I would have him higher (at this point, it’s more of a bonus when he’s in), but he’s the adult in the room. One of their few very-smart D who can make a breakout pass and get the opposing offence stopped. He’s a plus-three in eight games, and that isn’t a shocker because get this: with parts of 18 NHL seasons on his profile, he’s finished as a minus player just once. He was plus-31 for the Leafs two seasons ago.

7. Jack Roslovic: This feels shockingly high, even to myself as I write it, but how can it be denied? If offence is going to be this team's calling card, and it's trying to be a faster team than last season, then this guy is just what the doctor ordered. Eighteen points in 17 games, plus-three and 43 shots in under 17 mins of ice per game. He’s been excellent.

8. John Tavares: Nick Paul is an excellent NHLer, and arguably does more to drive a line than Tavares does at this point. But he’s got six points through 17 games, which Tavares would have with a wrong-handed stick. The Leafs are better when this guy gets those minutes.

9. Morgan Rielly: Maybe seems high considering the talk at the start of the season, but he’s been great as a second-pair guy. Third-most primary assists at five-on-five among NHL D-men, 19:30 a night, they’ve needed him.

10. Nick Paul: Maybe the offence isn’t there, but everything else is. He kills penalties, hits, tries and can be a decent connector between good wingers. They’ve relied on him.

11. Easton Cowan: The team’s sparkplug, he brings energy and passion to go with the offence to play with (and get the puck for) elite linemates.

12. Sergei Bobrovsky: Maybe this feels low, but when I play out a Bobrovsky injury in my head, Anthony Stolarz plays more games, Artur Akhtyamov gets some starts and I’m not 100 per cent sure “team save percentage” drops much over those games. If Stolarz could play more, it might even get better.

13. Anthony Stolarz: But what also might happen with him playing more is that Stolarz would get hurt. And, in that scenario, Akhtyamov backs up Bob, and suddenly you go from being unsure on the starter’s nights to being unsure all the time. Bobrovsky is the starter, so he’s listed higher, but I’m not sure which would be worse for the Leafs, really.

14. Gavin McKenna: He’s had some big points at big moments that have earned the Leafs standings points. I also think he needs as many reps as possible, and as he learns, he should get better, and become a more regular feature amidst the Leafs' offensive strength. Later in the season, I expect them to need him, particularly on the power play and at six-on-five, and potentially three-on-three.

15. Troy Stecher: Admittedly, he’s this far down only because of his reputation. On merit alone he’s been one of the Leafs' best D, he plays 19-plus minutes per game, kills penalties and brings a level of “try” that’s welcome every time he’s on the ice. What a bright spot he’s been.

16. Oliver Ekman-Larsson: OEL has more to give, but he’s here because the drop-off from him to the team’s seventh D is substantial. He’s gotten better as the season has gone on, too.

17. Colton Sissons: Sissons seems reliable and extremely fine, but if he missed time, the team’s drop-off doesn’t feel all that drastic. 

18. Brandon Duhaime: You could convince me he’s more important than Sissons because he brings a clear energy, speed and willingness to fight that not many of the regulars possess. 

19. Teddy Blueger: He’s an NHLer, and better than a lot of the quad-A options. But not overly impactful. 

20. Zac MacEwen: Not sure there’s anyone getting sub-10 minutes per game in the league who’s been as effective as MacEwen in his TOI. But it’s so low (below eight minutes, actually), an absence likely isn’t felt too strongly, though that fourth line is hot right now.

21. Dakota Joshua: Just doesn’t impact games much, maybe he will as he finds his footing after a slow start to the year with injury. For now, not moving the needle much.

22. Nick Blankenburg: So far, non-impactful player to lose. Has skills, but tough to see where he fits.

23. Marshall Rifai, Dakota Mermis, Vinni Lettieri, Bo Groulx: Quad-A players who are all serviceable, but replaceable. 

Your mileage on all this may vary. It’s a subjective exercise, but the Leafs — maybe more than any other team with dreams of the playoffs — need at least the top-10 of this list to stay healthy for the bulk of the season. 

If you disagree with the player order (I’m guessing you want the goalies higher?), tell me where I got it wrong (@jtbourne on Twitter/X). The Maple Leafs' only real hope of playoffs is to get healthy and stay there. Tavares should be back Saturday, with Marchenko likely back in a couple weeks.