Who could move up, and down, in NHL's most interesting division?

Since the 2017-2018 season the Atlantic Division has been divided between the haves and have-nots when it comes to playoff appearances and success on the ice.

The Big 4 of the Atlantic Division -- Tampa, Boston, Florida and Toronto -- have combined for 306 playoff games, while Montreal, Ottawa, Buffalo and Detroit have combined for only 32 (all coming from the Canadiens). Not only have those four teams dominated within the Atlantic, but they’ve also had a massive impact in the NHL itself.

In the past seven seasons the Atlantic Division has:

• Lifted three Stanley Cups (Florida ‘24, Tampa ‘21, Tampa ‘20)

• Represented the Eastern Conference in six out of seven Cup Finals, including each of the past six

• Accounted for four of the top 11 NHL teams in playoff games played

But is the 2024-25 season the year that balance of power gets toppled? With the bottom four pushing, is this the season any of the perennial power four drop down the charts to be replaced by one of the rebuilding teams?

One factor in how this plays out could be coaching.

It’s often discussed how teams can get a bump by changing a coach in the middle of a season, but the fact is whenever there is a change in coach, there is usually going to be a fresh mentality for the core of the team. Let’s look at a few recent coaching changes that were made in the off-season and the impact it made to a team’s playoff outlook.

Bruins 2022, Jim Montgomery: When Montgomery took over for Bruce Cassidy in the summer of 2022 the Vegas Golden Knights got a coach to lead them to their first Stanley Cup, and the Bruins got a fresh bump from what appeared to be an aging core that had gotten stale after five and a half years under Cassidy. This was an off-season change that bought the Bruins at least two more years of contending with a revitalized team.

Stars 2022, Pete DeBoer: Although the Stars were far from rock bottom, having gone to the Stanley Cup Final in the Covid Bubble of 2020, they still seemed on the precipice of falling away with an aging core of Jamie Benn and Tyler Seguin. In came DeBoer with a shift to youth, and suddenly the Stars have appeared in back-to-back conference finals.

Nashville 2023, Andrew Brunette: While Florida found its way to a Stanley Cup win with veteran coach Paul Maurice after changing out Brunette, Nashville got a young and exciting coach to restart the franchise with. Now with Brunette behind the bench and Hall of Fame coach Barry Trotz in the GM office, the Predators have been able to quickly pivot their franchise. 

Washington 2023, Spencer Carberry: While no one in the Washington region will list the 2023-24 Capitals season as a particularly memorable one, the team was nonetheless able to turn the narrative away from an aging core on the decline to a franchise that can be competitive every night. This was in large part helped by their 10-4-2 start to the first campaign under Carberry. The coach was different, the message was different, and the Capitals were able to squeak into the playoffs with what most believed would be a bottom tier team.

The importance of American Thanksgiving and a fast start

What does American Turkey Day and coaching changes have in common? While coaching bumps are real, their impact does only seem to be for a limited time. Generally, the affects of playing for a new coach wear off after 20-40 games and the return to the grind of an NHL regular season sets in. The caffeine hit of a new coach doesn’t last forever.

It's well documented how important it is to hold a playoff spot on American Thanksgiving, which this year is November 28. Since 2005, 76.9 per cent of teams that are in on this holiday end up making the playoffs in April, so setting up your season through the first quarter is crucial to your post-season outlook.

This season, each of the bottom four Atlantic teams play 22 games before Nov. 28, and generally a points percentage of around .580 is needed to be in a playoff spot by that date. So, think around a record of 12-8-2 is what should do the trick to get you where you want to be.

Three Atlantic Division teams made coaching changes this past summer and if we know that initial bump could last 20-40 games how will it factor into the division's outlook? What is the likelihood any of the bottom four will unseat any from the top?

Here's a team-by-team look at the Atlantic Division and their path to the playoffs, or out of it.

WHICH TEAM COULD JUMP IN?

Ottawa Senators

Last Playoff Appearance: 2016-2017
Games Before Thanksgiving: 22
Home: 12
Away: 10
vs. 2024 Playoff Team: 13
Back-to-Backs: 1
Coach: Travis Green, hired summer of 2024

Reason they will make the playoffs:

1. Coaching bump: Travis Green and his details brought a new intensity to Sens camp. As a team with a new owner, new GM, and now a new coach, expect everyone to be on their best behaviour to start the season.

2. Only one back-to-back situation in their first 22 games: With new stud goalie Linus Ullmark in town, he could conceivably play 21 of the first 22 games with this schedule and help the Sens achieve early-season success. Contrast this with the five back-to-backs the Maple Leafs face, and the schedulers have given the new crew in Ottawa a hand up.

Reason they won’t make the playoffs:

1. Stiff competition: While their schedule is favourable in home games (12) and back-to-backs (1), they have the most difficult strength of schedule among the bottom four in this division early on, playing 13 games against teams that earned a playoff spot in 2023-24.

2. Special teams: With a power play that finished 23^rd last season and a penalty kill that finished 28^th, the Senators have work to do to ensure their special teams don’t sink their ship before it gets to sea. Ullmark will need to be the best PKer to give the team a chance.

Montreal Canadiens

Last Playoff Appearance: 2020-21
Games Before Thanksgiving: 22
Home: 12
Away: 10
vs. 2024 Playoff Team: 9
Back-to-Backs: 3
Coach: Martin St. Louis, named permanent coach summer of 2022

Reason they will make the playoffs:

1. Building for success: With a stable and growing core, Montreal has hope of executing the plan built by Jeff Gordon and Kent Hughes. High draft picks, electrifying skill and a well-respected coach by the players gives them a great chance to take a big step. However, the injury to Patrik Laine is no doubt a blow to this vision.

2. Quality of competition: After a tough back-to-back facing Toronto and Boston to open the season, the Habs have a reasonable schedule for the six weeks after. With their farthest trip being to Minnesota, and seven straight games against teams that missed the playoffs last season, the Canadiens have a runway to gain confidence early in the year.

Reason they won’t make the playoffs:

1. Individual defence and goaltending: Montreal's forwards might be the most exciting young group in the East, but the defense on the other hand...are not. Although David Savard is a well-respected veteran, and Mike Matheson is a reasonable offensive threat, the rest of the back end is unproven. The Habs have bet on Sam Montembeault and Cayden Primeau to win them games, but so far neither has shown the ability to fill Carey Price's shoes, who took them to the Cup Final in 2021.

2. Team defensive play: Montreal surrendered the third-most shots against per game last season at 33.4, were bottom five in expected goals against and were tied for the fifth-most goals allowed. In a league where you can’t outscore your defensive problems, Montreal needs to tighten up big time to have any chance of finally making the jump back into the post-season.

Buffalo Sabres

Last Playoff Appearance: 2010-11
Games Before Thanksgiving: 22
Home: 11
Away: 9
Off-site: 2 (Europe)
vs. 2024 Playoff Team: 7
Back-to-Backs: 4
Coach: Lindy Ruff, hired summer of 2024

Reason they will make the playoffs:

1. Lindy Ruff: The Sabres haven’t made the playoffs since Ruff was coaching this team in his first go-around and the iPhone 4 was selling like hot cakes. Now Ruff is back -- hopefully to perform better than an iPhone 4 would today. Ruff has a long and successful history in this market. If anyone is going to change the direction of this franchise in a hurry, it’s him.

2. Possibility of a fast start: If the Sabres can get rolling early in a back-to-back in Europe against the Devils (who also have a new coach), then they have a chance to build momentum. Of their nine away games before Thanksgiving, only two opponents made the playoffs last year, and with only seven games in the first quarter against teams that made the playoffs in 2023-24, the Sabres have no reason to be below .500 heading into late November.

Reason they won’t make the playoffs:

1. Because they’re the Sabres: Buffalo has rotated through seven coaches in the past decade, and none have been able to stem the rollercoaster of a season. From exhilarating highs to lengthy losing streaks, the Sabres have been consistently mediocre over that entire time. Many good coaches and managers have come and gone, but the cycle has yet to be broken no matter the players and pieces they have shifted around. Bad starts have sunk this team in past years, so they need to come out of the gates on fire to change the mojo in Buffalo.

2. Starting in Europe: Since the NHL started going back to Europe in the Fall of 2017, of the 14 teams who participated overseas, only four made the playoffs and none of them won a round (excluding the Covid-extended 2019-20 season). Coaches have quietly whispered about how this early trip can get a team out of rhythm and extends the grind of an already long season. But in the name of growing the sport, the Sabres are one of four teams this year trying to break the curse.

Detroit Red Wings

Last Playoff Appearance: 2015-2016
Games Before Thanksgiving: 22
Home: 11
Away: 11
vs. 2024 Playoff Team: 13
Back-to-Backs: 3
Coach: Derek Lalonde, hired summer of 2022

Reason they will make the playoffs:

1. They are so close: The Red Wings came a tiebreaker away from securing a spot in the 2023-24 playoffs and have built towards this since Steve Yzerman took over as GM in the post playoff streak era. They are so close they can smell it at this point, and they need a reason to light up the pizza ovens at Little Caesar’s Arena for its first playoff game.

2. Roster build: They might be the most complete team of the bottom four in the Atlantic, with experienced netminders, a mix of skills on the back end and a top-six forward group to rival anyone in the East. The Red Wings' roster is built for success.

Reason they won’t make the playoffs:

1. What’s New?: I think Lalonde is a great coach, but how can he find the fire that the team showed down the stretch and bring that to the ice in the middle of October?  One of the hardest things a coach can do is motivate experienced players to perform on a Tuesday night in October for a road game against, say, the Islanders (which you'll see on the 22nd). What’s going to light the spark in Alex Debrincat, Patrick Kane and Ben Chiarot to turn up the heat from the puck drop on October 10?

2. Reputation: Like it or not, franchises and groups have reputations, and opponents will take games more or less seriously against them. For Detroit, their opponents are less likely to sleep on Kane, Vladimir Tarasenko and Dylan Larkin and on a team that just missed the playoffs, than they are on Tage Thompson, Alex Tuch and a Buffalo team that hasn't played in May since the opposition was in elementary school.

WHICH TEAM COULD FALL OUT?

Tampa Bay Lightning

Last Playoff Missed: 2016-17
Games Before Thanksgiving: 22
Home: 12
Away: 10
vs. 2024 Playoff Team: 13
Back-to-Backs: 2
Coach: Jon Cooper, hired spring of 2013

Reason they won’t make the playoffs:

1. All good things come to an end: They’ve been the most dominant team for the past decade, and have won multiple Cups. At some point, though, the luck runs out, the fire inside gets extinguished, and father time catches up. They’ve made hard and unpopular decisions, such as not re-signing captain Steve Stamkos, leaving Julien Brisebois Jon Cooper to push every button they can.

2. Tough Start: The Lightning have as difficult a schedule as it gets before Thanksgiving, and five of their first six games come against some of the league's top teams (Carolina x2, Vancouver, Vegas, Toronto). Mix in 13 games against playoff teams from last season, a couple of tricky back-to-backs in first 10 games, and this team has every excuse to take some time on the beach.

Boston Bruins

Last Playoff Missed: 2015-16
Games Before Thanksgiving: 24
Home: 13
Away: 11
vs. 2024 Playoff Team: 12
Back-to-Backs: 2
Coach: Jim Montgomery, hired summer of 2022

Reason they won’t make the playoffs:

1. Goaltending: After having the league's best duo in net, Linus Ullmark is now in Ottawa and Jeremy Swayman still isn't signed to a contract, leaving the Bruins with serious issues. Joonas Korpisalo is unproven as a starter and was acquired for depth (he’s had success in the 20 to 30-game range), but with a heavy early schedule, the Bruins could be 30 per cent of the way through their season before Swayman gets to the critical Dec. 1 signing deadline.

2. Down the middle: Again what was once a strength of the franchise (Patrice Bergeron, David Krejci) is now an area of concern for this roster. Elias Lindholm seems to be dealing with an injury during pre-season and Charlie Coyle isn’t a true 1C. The Bruins are lacking the power in the middle to deal with the Barkovs, Matthews, Larkins and Points of the Atlantic Division. With a shake up in net, and a lack of depth up front, the Bruins will rely on the defensive core of Charlie McAvoy, Brandon Carlo, Nikita Zadorov and Hampus Lindholm to keep them going.

Toronto Maple Leafs

Last playoff missed: 2019-20 (to me the “playoffs” are the round of 16)
Games Before Thanksgiving: 22
Home: 13
Away: 9
vs. 2024 Playoff Team: 10
Back-to-backs: 5
Coach: Craig Berube, hired summer of 2024

Reason they won’t make the playoffs:

1. Goaltending: I like Anthony Stolarz and I also like Joseph Woll. But at 108 and 36 NHL games played, respectively, it's a lot to ask a couple of unproven goalies in the toughest media market in the league to lead the Leafs. Toronto is never as bad defensively as the fans on X may think, however they aren’t a powerhouse at keeping pucks out of their zone either. If these goalies stay healthy and perform, these will turn out to be great signings. But it would make me nervous, in such a crucial year for the organization, to hand the reins over to two truly unknown players in the most important position.

2. Luck and circumstance: As a coach you never want to act like things are out of your control. The Leafs (knock on wood) have been relatively healthy with their Core 4 over the past five years, but as we saw with the Robertson-Nylander incident in the pre-season, or the Woll injury in Game 6 of last season's playoffs things happen, and when they do it can throw a wrench into the plans.

Along with injuries, another thing out of the coach's control is the scheduling. The Leafs have five back-to-backs before American Thanksgiving, the most of any team in the Atlantic. Not since the start of the 2019 season (when they had six back-to-backs) have the Leafs had as many to start the year. Fans might remember that the Leafs went 0-6 with Garrett Sparks in net in the second half of those back-to-backs and Mike Babcock was relieved of his duties shortly before Thanksgiving of 2019.

Florida Panthers

Last Playoff Missed: 2019-20
Games Before Thanksgiving: 23
Home: 12
Away: 9
Off-site: 2 (Europe)
vs. 2024 Playoff Team: 14
Back-to-backs: 2
Coach: Paul Maurice, hired summer of 2022

Reason they won’t make the playoffs:

1. Out of steam: They’ve played more hockey than any team in the NHL over the past 24 months. After another short summer, the Cats are right back at it to defend their title. It’s hard to repeat, it’s hard to win in this league, it’s hard to keep a championship team intact, but can Maurice push the right buttons to keep them purring?

2. Heavy schedule: Building off the last point, to go along with a trip overseas in early November, the Panthers have 23 games in the first part of the season -- 14 of which are against 2024 playoff teams, the most of any Atlantic Division team. Gone are the days of catching a sleepy team on a back-to-back in South Florida. Everyone is ready to play when they visit the Panthers now.

PREDICTION

This is the year when we'll finally see some shake ups in the Atlantic. I believe Ottawa will figure it out to get in, and one of Buffalo or Detroit will also make the jump (perhaps as a fifth Atlantic team in as a wild card). On the flip side, Tampa and Boston are poised to take a step back after years of controlling the East.