EDMONTON — First place in the Pacific Division has, as things so often do in Vegas, disappeared from the Edmonton Oilers' grasp.
Suddenly eight points behind the Golden Knights with 14 games to play, that is a gap that is simply too large to close — even with two games left to play with Vegas.
Even second place in the Pacific has become a remote possibility, with five points separating the Oilers and the Los Angeles Kings. However, the two games remaining between the Kings and Oilers will keep that candle flickering for now.
Realistically, however, the Oilers are battling with the Seattle Kraken for the right to navigate their playoff journey through the Pacific or, depending on what Division winner ends up with more points, perhaps take a playoff detour through the Central Division.
If the playoffs began today — before Wednesday’s slate of games — first place Vegas would open against the Winnipeg Jets, and Seattle would cross over to play the Dallas Stars. And once you start out in a Division, you have to stay there through Round 2 as well.
If the NHL was playing 1 vs. 8, 2 vs. 7, etc., the Oilers would draw the Minnesota Wild in Rd. 1. Alas, Gary Bettman said on Wednesday of the NHL’s Divisional format, "Things are working well."
So, as MLS NEXT Pro (the farm system for MLS) announces its playoff format this week — which includes the right for higher seeds to choose their opponents from among the lower seeds — let’s extrapolate that to the Oilers.
If you could choose a playoff path for Edmonton, who would you want them to play?
Los Angeles?
Last spring, a Kings team playing without Drew Doughty and handy, veteran winger Viktor Arvidsson, took a 3-2 series lead on Edmonton in their opening round meeting. The Oilers dug down and won Games 6 and 7 against an L.A. team that proved far tougher than any of us pundits had anticipated.
This season, the Kings have floated three or four points above Edmonton the entire season. They’re a defensively sound, tough matchup for Edmonton — and now they’ve added goalie Joonas Korpisalo to a healthy Doughty, making the Kings even harder to score on.
The Kings are the Oilers most likely first-round opponent, and we would say, an opponent that would have a great deal of confidence against the Oilers.
Vegas?
Edmonton is 2-0 against the Golden Knights this season, with a home and home left to play. The addition of Jonathan Quick is a confidence boost for Vegas, but having dispatched of him in the playoffs a year ago, that won’t intimidate Edmonton’s offence.
This matchup isn’t much different than any for Edmonton: The Oilers get the nod in the Top 6, Vegas has a better defence, and the goaltending is a toss-up, with a slight edge towards Vegas.
Since Jan. 1 these two teams have nearly identical records. It would be a fantastic series, one where the style favours the Oilers.
Dallas?
Nobody really wants to face a team with Jake Oettinger in goal, but since he arrived on the scene last season Edmonton is 2-3 versus Dallas (outscored 20-17) with the Stars in Edmonton for a Thursday night meeting.
Dallas counts on some older guys up front like Jamie Benn, Joe Pavelski and Tyler Seguin. They could have trouble with the Oilers Top 6, though sometimes experience is the difference in a playoff series. Like the Kings, Dallas views itself as a team that needs to get something done in the post-season after losing out in Rd. 1 last season.
In a toss-up like this one, I tend to side with the team that has the best goaltending and there isn’t any question which team that would be in this matchup.
An outside chance: Minnesota
The Wild would have to catch Dallas for the Central lead, and Edmonton would have to finish fourth in the Pacific for this matchup to occur. But if it did, this isn’t a matchup the Oilers want.
Edmonton went 1-2 versus the Wild this season, outscored 7-4 in two losses in St. Paul. The Oilers have lost five straight at the Xcel Energy Center with their last win there coming in the 2018-19 season.
Somehow, the Wild have mastered the art of slowing the Oilers down through the neutral zone and turning the game into more of a grind than a high-flying show of skill. Although Edmonton likes to think they have improved at that style, it is not their preferred way to play the game.
We’re ready to say it: The Oilers WILL be a playoff team.
But will they be favoured when Rd. 1 begins? Do they have the goaltending to replicate the three-round run they went on last season — or go even further?
That’s why they play the games, folks.
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