The NHL’s three-point system makes climbing the standings a massive challenge, as teams who lose often still get a point. And so with that, we don’t see many tightly contested playoff races between more than two or three teams.
Watching this year's Eastern Conference race…maybe that’s not such a bad thing?
The 2023-24 playoff “race” in the East has been an absolute turtle derby, packed full of teams losing more than they’re winning down the home stretch. The five teams we’ll be focusing on have combined to win 21 of their past 50 games. It’s single-handedly killing what seemed like reasonable arguments for expanding the playoffs.
But someone will get in, and anything can happen in playoff hockey, so let’s take a look at the relevant chunk of the standings and assess the odds each team has to get in. We’ll leave the Atlantic out of it because it's not relevant here, but in the Metro the third seed is still very much in play.
In talking with a couple people who put models together, the consensus is that 90 points may be enough to get into the playoffs in the East this season (it was 100 two years ago). It could turn out that it'll take 91 or, at most, 92 points to get in, but the data has 90 as the most likely number right now.
If you look at the remaining games for each of these teams and do the math on how many wins they’d need to get there, you can talk yourself into just about any of Philadelphia, Washington, Detroit, the Islanders, and yes, even Pittsburgh. The Sabres have six games left and 77 points, which means even if they run the table they'll be short of 90 points.
So, on to that quintet, any of who can get hot at a moment’s notice (but also, the opposite).
Status of the Philadelphia Flyers
They’re 2-5-3 in the past 10 after they took a stranglehold on a playoff spot, removed said stranglehold, and placed it to the throats of their players via coach John Tortorella. In what feels like abject panic at worst, and overdramatic at best, he’s called them soft, said they have guys who don’t know how to play, and said he doesn’t think they’re ready to be better. They’re hanging on for dear life.
Points: 83
Remaining games: Just 6.
@Buffalo, @Columbus, @Montreal, @NY Rangers, vs. NJD, vs. Washington(!).
While Buffalo is a wild card on any given night, they are still a non-playoff team, and both Columbus and Montreal would prefer losing to winning at this point. If we’re talking about needing just seven or eight points to cross the finish line, surely four or five can come in the Flyers' next three games. But boy, that final contest versus Washington looms large on the schedule.
Playoff chances: Stathletes: 54.9%, HockeyViz: 46.0%, MoneyPuck: 61.9%
Status of the Washington Capitals
After a few good wins over Carolina, Winnipeg and Detroit, the Caps have dropped the ball en route to the end zone. They’ve since lost to Toronto, Boston, and Buffalo (which was particularly ugly), and have opened the door to the chasing teams. It’s here I’d like to note that I cannot fathom how this team is the most likely to be playoff bound, as they’re tough to watch (just so slow), can’t score, and are a minus-35 goal differential.
Points: 83
Remaining games: 8
vs. Pittsburgh, @Carolina, vs. Ottawa, @Detroit, @Buffalo, vs. Tampa Bay, vs. Boston, @Philadelphia(!)
That’s not exactly a pattycake schedule, as even the non-playoff teams (Buffalo and Ottawa) can play, and a few are against direct competition for that final playoff spot. No easy nights on the docket. As noted with Philly, that last game on the schedule may yet matter.
Playoff chances: Stathletes: 52.9%, HockeyViz: 57.6%, Moneypuck: 54.8%
Status of the Detroit Red Wings
Fresh off a big win over the Tampa Bay Lightning, the Red Wings should feel like they’re back in the fight. It’s sad to say “back,” though, as they were solidly there before losing the four games prior.
Points: 82
Remaining games: 7
vs. NY Rangers, vs. Buffalo, vs. Washington, @Pittsburgh, @Toronto, vs. Montreal, @Montreal
It’s a bummer the “Montreal-Montreal” finish isn’t earlier on the schedule, as the Wings play some tough games before getting to such an enviable finish, with the Habs all too eager to drop games at that point. Detroit will likely need both of those to be wins. But if eight or nine more points gets them in the playoffs, they’ll just need to find at least a couple wins among the more challenging five games prior. It’s still very much in Detroit's hands to take.
Playoff chances: Stathletes: 45.9%, HockeyViz: 44.4%, Moneypuck: 42.8%
Status of the New York Islanders
Maybe the league’s most maddening team, the Isles have played their way into and out of the playoff conversation so often their fanbase has almost given up. It seemed like the dream was finally dead before they beat Florida, Philly, and Chicago to get right back in it. They need more from their top defencemen (guys like Adam Pelech and Noah Dobson), but they’ve certainly got enough horses to win hockey games. But is the hole they dug too deep?
Points: 81
Remaining games: 7
@Columbus, vs. Nashville, vs. NY Rangers, vs. Montreal, @NY Rangers, @New Jersey, vs. Pittsburgh(!)
With seven games left, it’s very likely that five wins get the Islanders in. The Rangers have been humming, and the Preds have been too, meaning the Islanders need to play some legitimately good hockey to make it happen. It’s not that they can't do it with that roster, but stretches of consistent quality play is not something they’ve demonstrated often.
Playoff chances: Stathletes: 34.0%, HockeyViz: 31.7%, Moneypuck: 22.7%
Status of the Pittsburgh Penguins
When they lost to the Devils and Stars back-to-back on March 19 and 22, talk started about the future of this franchise. Stuff about the off-season: trading Erik Karlsson, wondering if Sidney Crosby would stick around, etc, etc. They’ve since taken points in six straight games (with four wins), including two road wins against the Rangers and Devils, and are somehow back in the picture. And here’s how many points Crosby scored in each of those games: 4, 3, 2, 1, 3, 2. Just a light 15 points in six games. He’s single-handedly willed them back into it.
Points: 79
Remaing games: 7
@Washington, vs. Tampa Bay, @Toronto, vs. Detroit, vs. Boston, vs. Nashville, @NY Islanders(!)
Unfortunately, it seems like Sid and the Pens are going to be too little too late. I say “seems like,” and not “they’re too late,” because of one little detail – they currently hold the tiebreaker against literally every team they’re chasing (regulation wins). So if they get to 90 points – say they go 5-1-1, not an inconceivable stretch – they could be the team that gets in.
They play some awfully good opponents down the stretch and this comeback is unlikely, but if we know anything in hockey it’s that we shouldn’t count out Sidney Crosby.
Playoff chances: Stathletes: 10.2%, HockeyViz: 18.6%, Moneypuck: 15.1%
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