Why a 50-goal season is just the start for bargain scorer Zach Hyman

WINNIPEG — Zach Hyman knows the narrative out there, that he is some modern day version of Jonathan Cheechoo.

A product of Connor McDavid’s brilliance, the same way the Moose Factory, Ont. product Cheechoo was the benefactor of the silky Joe Thornton all the way to a career-high 56-goal season for San Jose back in 2005-06.

Cheechoo scored 37 the next season and fell off from there. 

But what about Hyman?

“(When) I started I was an NHL player, but I was an NHL player who had no hands,” Hyman said Sunday night in Ottawa, after scoring his 50^th goal on a powerplay feed from (who else?) No. 97.

“A grinder playing next to Auston (Matthews) and Willie (Nylander). That was the narrative,” Hyman said. “I scored 10 goals, then 15 and then 20. And then it was, ‘He's an okay player. He just plays with good players.’ And I still have that narrative, which is awesome.

“I wouldn't be in this position without (McDavid).”

So, let’s dig in on this 31-year-old right-winger who has solved the Rubik’s Cube that is McDavid’s hockey I.Q. Who has become the down-low Dave Andreychuk to McDavid’s Doug Gilmour; the crease-crashing Craig Simpson to McDavid’s Mark Messier.

Hyman is a late-bloomer, an NCAA grad who didn’t play pro hockey until age 23. That means his body is 31, but with the wear and tear of a 28-year-old. He’s been largely injury-free and has four more seasons left on his contract after this one with an AAV of $5.5 million — a contract that was supposed to age poorly.

But will it?

Let’s start by listing some facts that we can all agree on:

• In his three seasons in Edmonton, Hyman’s goal totals have risen from 27 to 36 to 50 and counting — one career-high after another.

• Of his 50 goals this season, only 15 have come on the powerplay — compared to 27 for Sam Reinhart, who also hit 50 on Sunday — and no one in the NHL has scored more goals from that area within three feet of the goal line than Hyman.

• Hyman’s game is as cerebral as it is skill-based. By that we mean, his goals don’t come by outskating opponents the way Pavel Bure did, an over powering shot like Alex Ovechkin once had, or simply being bigger and stronger than the defenders like Eric Lindros. Skills that diminish with age. That’s a check mark on the longevity side.

• We know that hockey players get smarter and more wily with age and experience. Leon Draisaitl wins more faceoffs at 28 than he did at age 23; Joe Pavelski tips a better puck today than a decade ago. So too does Hyman work the low slot so much more wisely at 31 than he did at 25.

We’re not saying Hyman gets 50 in each of the next three seasons, but with McDavid at his prime for the next few seasons, and Hyman solidifying his craft as a crease master, is an annual 40 goals realistic?

That’s pretty good for $5.5 million.

“A lot of good things have to happen, but you see the way Hymes scores,” said Corey Perry, whose work in NHL creases over the past 1,300 games qualifies him as an expert on the topic. “There was a chart out the other day — he's got one (goal from) outside of the house. Outside of that 10-foot area (around) the net.

“If you want to score goals in the league, that's where you want to go. That’s where you have to go.”

Currently, McDavid has assisted on 33 of Hyman’s 50 goals (66%), and has the primary assist on 23 (46%).

For context, Mitch Marner has assisted on 55.1 per cent of Matthews’ 58 goals, with 41.3% of them primary assists, while Sasha Barkov has assisted on 56% of Reinhart’s 50 goals, 30% primary.

So McDavid’s help is greater than the others. Also, McDavid is on a career passing jag. What if he goes back to scoring goals, like he did with a career high 64 tucks last season? Hyman’s production would surely suffer.

Now, let’s talk shooting percentage.

Hyman is scoring at a 20.8% clip this season. He has averaged a shooting percentage of 14.6% over the previous five seasons.

Unsustainable?

Likely, but consider that Hyman has two things working for him here in terms of maintaining what is the third highest shooting percentage in the NHL this season among 25-goal scorers:

No one else in the NHL has scored more goals from within 10 feet of the goal line this season, as the accompanying chart shows, with 30 of Hyman’s 50 coming from that range. The closer you are the net, the more sustainable a high shooting percentage is.

Factor in that no one else has McDavid passing them the puck — even though the NHL is well stocked with superior passers — you could deduce that Hyman’s shooting percentage is bound to be higher than most.

Hey, someone has to tap in those backdoor feeds from McDavid, or cash the rebound from a Draisaitl blast.

The point is, a 20 per cent shooting percentage is unsustainable when you score the way Draisaitl does, or Matthews. But is it less so when the vast majority of your shots come from within six feet of the goal line?

Either way, two things seem true:

Hyman, at $5.5 million, is perhaps the league’s best scoring bargain, a point that will be driven home by Reinhart’s UFA deal this summer.

And a contract that was supposed to age badly may have more good years in it than we thought it would. Because Hyman may slow down significantly in his final season at 35, but maybe not so significantly after all.