The Boston Bruins suffered a rare setback Thursday, dropping just their fifth game in regulation (and first at home) this season in a 3-0 loss to the Seattle Kraken. Despite the defeat, the 32-5-4 Bruins are on pace for 136 points, which would be the most in NHL history.
As with most things, the pertinent question is: How does this affect the Maple Leafs?
The Bruins and Leafs — if they can win a playoff round for the first time since 2004 — are on a collision course come spring. They face each other Saturday for the second time this season.
“It’s not much of a race at this point (in the Atlantic Division),” Leafs coach Sheldon Keefe told reporters after Toronto’s loss to Detroit on Thursday. “Unless I’m mistaken, (the Bruins are) playing at a pace that’s the highest winning percentage in the history of the NHL. … We would like to make it so that they have to try to maintain that pace or we’re going to be right there.
“Anytime we’re playing head to head, it’s a good opportunity to compete. More importantly, it’s a good chance for our team to bounce back and go against a team that’s going to push us in all regards.”
The challenge for the Leafs is to discover a weakness in the Bruins’ game plan, which does not appear to exist. The Bruins are as good as it gets defensively, allowing 1.56 expected goals per game at 5-on-5, second only to the Carolina Hurricanes. When shots have made it on net, Bruins goaltenders have combined to stop nearly 93 per cent of them in all situations (1st), including 85.2 per cent of those from the slot (2nd).
The same goes for the Bruins’ offence, which can score in a variety of ways. In terms of 5-on-5 shot quality, only the New Jersey Devils and Vegas Golden Knights rank higher on a per-game basis.
So what will it take for the Leafs to slow down the Bruins? On Thursday, the Kraken provided a blueprint of sorts in handing the Bruins their first shutout loss of the season.
Although the Bruins won the offensive-zone possession battle by a significant margin (7:13 to 4:52), the Kraken built a wall around the middle of the ice, limiting the Bruins to three inner-slot shots and 11 successful slot passes in all situations. Over their previous 10 games (8-0-2), the Bruins averaged 7.6 inner-slot shots and 16.2 successful slot passes, respectively.
As The Athletic’s Fluto Shinzawa wrote after the game, the Kraken dialed up the pressure on the forecheck, forcing the Bruins into 24 defensive-zone turnovers at 5-on-5. One of those giveaways led directly to Kraken forward Brandon Tanev’s game-winning goal.
Neither of those things are exclusive to stopping the Bruins, but few of their opponents have been able to execute them. The Leafs are one of the better teams in the league at defending the inner slot, ranking sixth with 5.74 shots against per game. When they last met in November, the Leafs held the Bruins to one inner-slot shot in their 2-1 win, excluding Brad Marchand’s penalty-shot goal.
The Leafs are not as opportunistic as the Kraken, though no team is. Seattle leads the league in 5-on-5 goals scored within 10 seconds of a turnover.
Toronto is near the bottom in that category — tied for 26th. But the Leafs scored three such goals against the Philadelphia Flyers last weekend, so they are more than capable of cashing in on those chances.
It would require an epic collapse by the Bruins for the Leafs to pass them in the Atlantic Division, but their matchup Saturday will be a good test.
“We want to see where they’re at and where we’re at right now,” Leafs defenceman Mark Giordano said. “Obviously them being (nine) points ahead of us, if we want to give ourselves a chance to catch them, we’ve got to chip away throughout the next bunch of weeks.”
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