EDMONTON — The options are simple. For the Edmonton Oilers, however, it’s the various offshoots and long-term repercussions of each option that become complicated.
As the Oilers’ brain trust approaches a seven-day deadline to respond to the surprise attack that was the St. Louis Blues double offer sheet tendered this past Tuesday at about 9:30 a.m. ET / 7:30 a.m. MT, one thing is clear: they’re not positive yet which way they’ll respond, but as each day passes, the gravity of suddenly allotting two young players a combined $6.9 million is daunting.
Our sources indicate that the Oilers have not yet made their final decision on whether to match either or both of the offer sheets that St. Louis general manager Doug Armstrong tendered to defenceman Philip Broberg and left winger Dylan Holloway. But as they go down the various pathways, the downstream effects are beginning to point them in a certain direction.
So, what do we know?
A 23-year-old, six-foot-four, smooth-skating defenceman is always going to be more valuable than a 22-year-old left-winger. That’s why Broberg was tendered an offer sheet that was twice as rich as the one given to Holloway.
However, that makes the long-term ramifications of matching on Broberg twice as punitive.
The Oilers are a short-term team with more star power than most.
Which means that they’re trying to win a Stanley Cup today and they’ll worry about tomorrow down the road. Their window includes the expiration of three key (and expensive) players in the next two seasons: Leon Draisaitl and Evan Bouchard after this season, and Connor McDavid after 2025-26.
Myriad NHL teams could simply erase the whiteboard behind the GM’s desk, reassign some dollars, and match on both Broberg and Holloway. But with three big contracts in the offing over the next 24 months — players who simply have to be signed — the Oilers are not one of those.
Yes, there are reports that GM Stan Bowman is in the summer marketplace, gauging the price on trading either Cody Ceci or Brett Kulak. But he is in a position of weakness, so making a less-than-great trade to make room for an overvalued Broberg might just be the very definition of throwing good money after bad.
If the Oilers match on either or both, they cannot trade either player for one year. And what if Broberg plays a season at $4.6 million and is just OK? He’d be very difficult to trade at that point, due a qualifying offer of $4.6 million at the end of Year 2 of his contract.
At $2.3 million, Holloway is less cumbersome, and gives Edmonton a chance to save face somewhat if he is retained.
So, as the Oilers do their deep dive into each scenario, their fallback position might be to let Broberg go — ensuring that the more important veterans can be signed — and retain Holloway, which is likely what Armstrong envisioned when he offer-sheeted both players.
Does it hurt to lose a former first-round pick in Broberg for a second-round pick from the Blues? You bet it stings.
And we are well aware that even Stanley Cup contenders need a few young and cheap players to balance the salary cap.
But this offer sheet changes that. Broberg remains young, but he is no longer cheap. He is, in fact, largely overpaid, an 81-game NHLer with 13 regular season points on his resume set to make nearly $700,000 more than Evan Bouchard.
The Oilers aren’t watching video of these two players. They’ve drafted and developed both of them and are well aware of what they have.
But while the book on Holloway and what he might become seems more certain — a solid and speedy middle-six winger today, perhaps a second-line regular in the future — the evaluation of Broberg revolves far more around “potential,” we are told.
He has great size and skating ability, an average shot and uses his superior feet to establish body position on defence. But, remember, with this contract he’ll never make less than $4.6 million in Edmonton, and in two years will ask for more.
Is Broberg a late developer? A guy who is never going to play on a power play, but can skate the puck out of trouble better than most?
Does he figure to step in for the aging Mattias Ekholm one day? Can Broberg ever be anywhere close to that pedigree of defenceman?
And what about this: In a room full of veterans, many of whom took less money to keep the band together after a Game 7 Stanley Cup Final loss, how will Broberg’s increase go over? Here’s a kid who clearly is happy with playing elsewhere or would upset the salary structure if he stays; how far does that old chestnut “It’s a business” go when so many others have taken less to stay in Edmonton?
We’ll find out Monday or Tuesday.
Our bet? Holloway stays, Broberg becomes a Blue and Bowman finds a veteran right-shot defenceman to fill his spot.
