It would be gauche to suggest the most intriguing part of the 2023 NHL Draft will be when the clock starts ticking on the Montreal Canadiens for the fifth selection.
But it could be at that point, some 12 minutes after generational talent Connor Bedard pulls on a Chicago Blackhawks jersey, that things take their first—and most—dramatic turn.
The Canadiens could drift us right into the first hairpin much sooner, too, if they manage to trade up in the draft—something they’re reportedly trying very hard to do as we approach June 28.
We’re told it’s just as—if not more—conceivable they’ll move down.
And if they stand pat, those final three minutes before the Canadiens first take the stage in Nashville are going to bring everyone to the edge of their seats.
Assuming Adam Fantilli, Leo Carlsson and Will Smith follow Bedard—which seems almost as safe a bet as Bedard going first to Chicago—Matvei Michkov will be sitting right there at five. And if the Russian prospect, who’s being hailed as the second-most talented player available, is still sitting there at six, there’s a large swath of Canadiens fans liable to fall right out of their seats.
General manager Kent Hughes was asked at the recent NHL combine, in Buffalo, about the risk-reward evaluation on Michkov, and he certainly didn’t downplay the risk element of it when he first responded the Canadiens had to get to know the player much better having not had anyone from the organization speak with him to that point.
Hughes added, “Michkov has a three-year contract for now, but it’s not as if he’s not allowed to re-sign in Russia either.”
He concluded the Canadiens would do their homework and weren’t “scared” of the unknown regarding the player, but his comments did little to dismantle the notion he’s looking in every other direction but Michkov’s.
Neither did conversations we had with sources over the weekend.
At least a couple of them wondered aloud if the Canadiens wanted people to think they like Michkov a lot less than they actually do, but all of them said they’d be surprised if the 5-foot-10, 172-pound winger would be pulling on a bleu, blanc et rouge sweater come draft day.
We’re not sure what to think.
The Canadiens are the team that stirred the pot most vigorously in the lead-up to drafting Juraj Slafkovsky first overall in Montreal one year ago. They almost tipped the thing right over trading Alexander Romanov to the New York Islanders for the 13th-overall pick before packaging 13 and 66 to Chicago for Kirby Dach before the fourth pick was announced. And they’re in a position this time around to steal away at least some of the attention that will be centred on Bedard—and not just with whom they do or don’t pick.
Trading up or down in the order might not be the only transaction the Canadiens angle for come next Wednesday. The possibility they move for Winnipeg Jets centre Pierre-Luc Dubois is alive, even if it shrank a little with some other teams entering the fray, and that has the potential to be the biggest blockbuster of the day.
Whether the Canadiens make it or not, they have two picks in the first round and nine more in the subsequent ones to play with. They also have a deep prospect pool and a roster to deal from to spice things up considerably, and we expect they’ll do exactly that before leaving Nashville.
DRAFT PICKS:
POTENTIAL ROUND 1 OPTIONS
Assuming the Canadiens stay put at five, we’re not scratching Michkov’s name off their board just yet.
He’s an explosive winger, a genius inside the offensive blue line, and a player with plenty of time to develop his defensive game in the KHL over the next three years.
If the Canadiens get to know—and like—Michkov that much better in the lead up to the draft, and if they get assurances he’ll be coming over when his contract expires, they may be intrigued by the advantage of him starting his entry-level deal with them as they step further into their competitive window.
We would be a lot less surprised to hear them call Ryan Leonard’s name, though.
When Hughes was asked at the combine about the right winger who scored 51 goals in 57 games with the United States Development Team this past season, he said he’s a player who “plays in the style of Matthew and Brady Tkachuk.”
The Canadiens aren’t exactly overflowing with players who fit that description, so it wouldn’t be shocking to see them snatch one up with the fifth-overall pick—even if Leonard slots slightly lower on most prognosticators’ draft boards.
If the Canadiens see him as the best available player, they won’t hesitate.
Hughes said they remain committed to taking the BPA versus drafting for organizational need, and they should be, considering they finished last season near the bottom of the standings and have many organizational needs.
But Hughes is also on the record as saying organizational need would serve as a tiebreaker only if they see two players as equal, and they have no greater need that they can reasonably fill at fifth overall than at right defence.
Should they deem Austria’s David Reinbacher as equal to Leonard, he fills that need.
Reinbacher is arguably the best defenceman available in this draft. He’s a player with a penchant for moving his feet—and pucks—efficiently, a player who’s garnered a reputation for being wise beyond his years in his own end, and a player who could have more offence to him than he exhibited in scoring three goals and 22 points in Switzerland’s top pro hockey league this past season.
Maybe the Canadiens move down to get him or Leonard if they feel one or both will still be available beyond the fifth pick.
If they move up, we anticipate it would be to fourth to nab either Carlsson or Smith—dynamic centres who can each help the Canadiens at a position they’ve been weak at for decades.
The former is arguably the most complete player in the draft, while the latter is a playmaking maven Hughes knows inside-out after having coached him with the Boston Jr. Eagles a few years back.
LAST YEAR’S FIRST PICK
It wasn’t exactly a banner year for Slafkovsky, but you’d have to go back to 2016 and Auston Matthews to find an example of a forward chosen first overall who jumped into the NHL at 18 and immediately dominated.
Still, the Canadiens would’ve hoped for a smoother transition, even if they knew the 6-foot-4, 238-pound winger was stepping onto a North American rink for the first time in his career and doing so in arguably the most pressure-packed market in the league.
Were they disappointed? Only with Slafkovsky’s season ending prematurely with a knee injury, which limited him to just 39 games.
But the Canadiens are committed to Slafkovsky’s development, expecting he’ll improve considerably in all facets of the game—and not just from a production standpoint after he managed just four goals and 10 points.
They knew when they drafted the Slovakian that it would take time for him to adjust to the NHL game, to grow into that massive frame of his and develop into the imposing winger he has the potential to become. They just want the process to keep pushing him forward.
ONE BOLD PREDICTION FOR THE DRAFT
If we have to make one, here it is: The Canadiens will trade for Dubois.
It’s not a prediction that would’ve been considered bold two months—or even two weeks—ago, but with Elliotte Friedman recently reporting on 32 Thoughts: The Podcast the Los Angeles Kings are considering a big play for the 6-foot-2 centre, we think it qualifies as bold now.
We could see the Canadiens’ incentive to get Dubois growing if they whiff on a deal to move up in the draft to get Carlsson or Smith, and we won’t be surprised to see them whiff on a deal to move up.
It is just so rare that teams are able to manifest those kinds of deals.
But deals like the Dubois one will be involved in are happening—and will continue to be happening—more frequently in the NHL.
The restricted free agent, who’s one year away from unrestricted free agency, might be open to playing long-term for a few different teams that covet him, but several sources we’ve spoken to throughout the past year have assured us his destination of choice remains Montreal.
The Canadiens would have to work out a contract with Dubois and agent Pat Brisson that would likely make him the highest-paid player on their team, and they’ll have to work out a fair trade with the Jets. It’s going to be hard to do with more teams in the mix.
But with more teams in the mix, the idea of the Canadiens just waiting for Dubois to walk to them in the summer of 2024 seems a lot more farfetched now.