Last month, Elias Pettersson signed an eight-year contract that will make him the fifth-highest-paid player in the NHL next season. Since putting pen to paper, however, Pettersson’s production has tapered off at a critical point of the season.
Pettersson has 10 points in 14 games since the Vancouver Canucks announced his new deal — a solid stretch for the majority of players in the league, but not for someone who recently inked the richest contract in franchise history. He has gone seven consecutive games without a goal, his longest drought of the season.
The numbers show that Pettersson has been less dynamic lately, averaging 7.21 offence-generating plays per game since March 3 — down from 8.81 over his first 62 games. (Offence-generating plays are those that typically lead to scoring chances, such as passes and carries to the slot.)
Pettersson has had a rotating cast of right wingers during the past month, sharing the ice with Pius Suter, Conor Garland and most recently Brock Boeser, who has lined up opposite Nils Hoglander over the past four games. The current version of Pettersson’s line has generated 68.5 per cent of expected goals at even strength but scored only once.
When Garland occupied that spot in the Canucks’ previous four games (March 19-25), Pettersson’s line generated 88.5 per cent of expected goals and outscored opponents 4-0. Pettersson recorded four points at even strength over that span, so perhaps going back to Garland would help Pettersson get back on track.
Collectively, the Canucks were bound to regress offensively at some point. They outperformed their expected output for most of the season, ranking third in actual goals (3.58) and 19th in expected goals (3.14) per game through the end of February. Only the Detroit Red Wings (0.60 per game) had a greater difference between actual and expected goals. Since the start of March, Vancouver is 22nd in actual goals (2.71) and 25th in expected goals (2.78) per game.
Although the goals have dried up this month, the Canucks have been winning with defence. They have allowed an average of 10.3 slot shots on net and 17.1 scoring chances over the past 14 games, both of which top the league. If and when the offence bounces back, the Canucks will be dangerous.
Pettersson will play a big part in that. The timing of his “slump” could not have been worse, but the Canucks paid him so handsomely because of his elite offensive ability. They need him to find it as soon as possible.