VANCOUVER — Before the season began, the Vancouver Canucks were a consensus bubble team, widely expected to compete in the mosh pit at the bottom end of the National Hockey League playoff race. Through 20 games, the question now is whether their bubble will burst.
The Canucks have been one of the league’s biggest surprises in the opening quarter, going 13-6-1 and significantly beating all market expectations. They lead the NHL in scoring (four goals per game), are fifth in goals against (2.55), possess the best goals-differential at plus-29 and are being driven by a Fab Four of Thatcher Demko, Quinn Hughes, J.T. Miller and Elias Pettersson who have reached new levels and would all be finalists for major awards if balloting were done today.
The biggest star may be coach Rick Tocchet, who in his first full season in charge has rebranded the Canucks, making them faster, more aggressive, more disciplined and much harder to play against. As we’ve said before, the ceiling is unclear, but the floor has come way up for the Canucks under Tocchet and his staff.
But, alas, 20 games do not a season make and the finish line is still out of sight somewhere across the horizon, which is why Tocchet and his players have adoped an “earn-your-day” mentality. Hunger and a narrow focus are good things.
Even with three losses in four games to end the quarter, the Canucks are 10 points ahead of last season’s win rate and nine points on the right side of the playoff race.
Their current 82-game pace of 111 points would be the franchise’s best since Vancouver won its second straight Presidents’ Trophy in 2012 with Daniel and Henrik Sedin, Ryan Kesler and Alex Burrows, a deep, formidable defence and goalie Roberto Luongo.
But there are concerns — a couple of orange flags if not red ones. The Canucks’ five-on-five metrics are mid-pack, and they’ve benefitted from the league’s fifth-best shooting percentage (10.8 per cent) and fifth-best save percentage (93.3). The aggregate, PDO, is not in itself an indictment for fraud; last season’s PDO leaders included the 65-win Boston Bruins and Stanley Cup-champion Vegas Golden Knights.
The Canucks, however, need to rely less on Demko and their fourth-ranked power play, and continue to build their five-on-five play.
Game 21 is Friday in Seattle against the Kraken.
Where They Are Relative To Expectations
A year ago, the Canucks were 7-10-3 through 20 tumultuous games, bleeding goals against. If two months ago we’d reversed the wins and losses as a first-quarter target, going 10-7-3 would have been a bold but doable projection. Instead, the team is another four points ahead of that pace, and even farther ahead in the playoff race due to a tepid start to the wild-card chase in the Western Conference.
Top-Six Forwards Grade: A
Only the Tampa Bay Lightning have received as much offensive production from their top six forwards as the 46 goals and 112 points produced by the Canucks’ first two lines. Like the team as a whole, J.T. Miller has redefined himself, becoming an elite, dependable match-up centre whose 13 goals and 30 points in 20 games have him one point behind teammate Quinn Hughes in the NHL scoring race. Elias Pettersson has 28 points and Brock Boeser 13 goals. Andrei Kuzmenko has been inconsistent, but still has 14 points and is a core piece on the dangerous power play. Wingers Phil Di Giuseppe and Ilya Mikheyev provide speed, checking, consistency and solid secondary scoring.
Bottom-Six Forwards Grade: C-plus
This underrated group would grade slightly higher if it had translated its solid territorially play into more scoring. Wingers Conor Garland (two goals, five points, 4.9 per cent shooting) and Anthony Beauvillier (two goals, eight points, 5.4 per cent shooting) have especially outplayed their offensive totals.
Despite a couple of brief stays in Tocchet’s doghouse, Dakota Joshua is driving possession (56.1 per cent expected goals) and among the NHL leaders with 54 hits. Speedy Sam Lafferty has provided versatility, consistency and nine points of secondary scoring. Nils Hoglander has chipped in six goals in 18 games while learning — sometimes the hard way — how he needs to play to build an NHL career.
Defence Grade: B
The Canucks’ defence, and especially its bottom half and the depth spots, is still viewed as the most vulnerable component of the roster and may be further tested now after Tyler Myers and Mark Friedman left Wednesday’s 5-2 loss in Denver due to injuries. Projected sixth-man Guillaume Brisebois (concussion) has yet to play and key summer acquisition Carson Soucy (ankle) could be out another month.
The good news is veteran newcomer Ian Cole has been as steady as advertised, Myers is enjoying a rebirth under Tocchet’s structure, and the top pairing of Quinn Hughes and Filip Hronek has been all-world. Hughes may be the best player in the league so far this season. His eight goals have already matched a career high, and Hughes’ NHL-leading 31 points are more than five teams’ entire production on defence. Between them, Hughes and Hronek (19 points) have outscored the blue lines of all but five teams. The Canucks have outscored opponents by 15 goals in 20 games with Hughes on the ice at even strength.
Goaltending Grade: A
After his personal season of upheaval last year, Thatcher Demko has re-established himself as a top-five goalie in the NHL. His .923 save percentage is among the league leaders and his high-danger save rate of .895 is No. 1 among starters, according to naturalstattrick.com. In 14 starts, Demko has saved 8.4 goals above average. Experienced backup Casey DeSmith has also been excellent, going 4-1-1 in his six starts while posting a .917 save percentage.
Big Question for the Second Quarter
The obvious one is: Can the Canucks sustain this? But an important one is how long general manager Patrik Allvin is willing to wait before adding another defenceman. The forward group is excellent and the goaltending superb. And right now, top defencemen Hughes and Hronek are in a class of their own. But the Canucks needed one more experienced, dependable defenceman even before an injury crisis loomed. Is now the time to go get one? Is this season the time? So far, it sure looks like it.