Auston Matthews sure loves playing on opening night.
The Toronto Maple Leafs superstar notched a hat-trick Wednesday against the Montreal Canadiens, nearly matching the four-goal performance he had in his first career NHL game. It’s a great start for Matthews, who was actually a bit of a steal this year in drafts.
Normally, Matthews is an easy top-four pick, but he had an ADP of 7.6 this season, meaning on average he was going closer to eighth overall. That’s likely because he’s coming off a bit of a down year for his standards, scoring just 40 times in 2022-23.
Matthews had the lowest shooting percentage of his career, though, and a bounceback was inevitable. It’s still early, but it sure looks like Matthews should easily be a 50-goal scorer again if he stays healthy and 60 certainly wouldn’t be out of the question. He’s proven in the past he has the ability to get his game to that level.
There are going to be more than a few people kicking themselves for passing on Matthews.
Time for your questions:
I do think there’s a lot to like about Gabriel Vilardi this season. He’s going to get more opportunities than he did with the Los Angeles Kings, and he’s starting off the year with great deployment, playing on the Winnipeg Jets’ top line and first power play. Vilardi posted seven shots in his first game with his new club but even more encouraging than that was his ice time. He played over 21 minutes against the Calgary Flames after never even averaging 16 minutes in any season prior. Vilardi may not play 21-plus minutes every night, but even if he averages 18 or so, that’s a big step up from what he was getting with the Kings.
The signings of Mark Scheifele and Connor Hellebuyck also signal the Jets don’t plan on rebuilding anytime soon, so the team should be fielding a solid roster around Vilardi for the foreseeable future. Vilardi is a good value option that’s widely available across all leagues at the moment.
In his last full season two years ago, Morgan Rielly put up 68 points, so I don’t think there’s anything to be concerned about necessarily. If you’re hoping he gets back to being a 20-goal scorer like he was a few seasons back, that seems like more of a longshot.
Given the Leafs are so stocked offensively, Rielly shouldn’t have any trouble getting to 60 points if he stays healthy. That said, if John Klingberg takes over power play one, he would be someone to consider rostering and could hurt Rielly’s value a bit. It’s still early, so we’ll have to see if Klingberg can hold that spot.
I’d try to keep Patrick Kane if you can. It sounds like Kane is going to pick his team based on who looks strong to start the season, so he’ll likely end up in a great spot and we all know the offensive talent he possesses.
Spencer Knight is tough to hold right now because we don’t know when he’s going to get called up and then he’d still have to outplay Sergei Bobrovsky to have real value. That’s certainly not impossible, but there’s more uncertainty around Knight than Kane in my opinion.
It’s hard to put too much stock into early season line combinations because things will always change, but Ryan Donato does seem like the under-radar Chicago Blackhawk to roster that’s going to get a bump from Connor Bedard. I still think players like Lukas Reichel, Taylor Raddysh, and Andreas Athanasiou will all get looks there at different points of the season, so you can stream Donato for now, but be prepared for that to change at some point.
If Nick Paul can hold that spot on the top power play, he’ll be a must-roster. I still think I’d prefer Connor Brown though, as he’s going to be on McDavid’s wing all season if all goes to plan. Paul will be in the bottom six, and if he does lose that power play spot to Brandon Hagel let’s say for whatever reason, he likely won’t even be worth rostering. Brown should have the highest ceiling and higher floor.
Middle of the pack is a realistic expectation for the Philadelphia Flyers. John Tortorella is known for squeezing everything possible out of his teams, even if that roster is still pretty thin. I don’t think the Flyers will be in the discussion for the first-overall pick, but I also don’t think they’re a playoff team. There are just too many teams better than them in the East.
Schmid or Vejmelka as my third tender?
I’d go with Akira Schmid here. Karel Vejmelka may play a bit more, but Schmid should have more quality starts and is on a much better team. Plus, there is a lot more upside to Schmid. He stole the job from Vitek Vanecek in the playoffs and there’s no reason he can’t do it again if Vanecek struggles.
I’d put Shayne Gostisbehere at the top of this list. He’s a good offensive player and was getting good power play time in the preseason. Then I’d rank them Mike Matheson, Bowen Byram, Torey Krug and Jamie Drysdale. Matheson looked great in Montreal last season, and Byram has a ton of upside. My concern with Krug is despite getting more opportunities, he always gets outplayed by Justin Faulk and we just haven’t seen enough of Drysdale yet to be overly confident in him.
I do think Cam Talbot could be a good option, but I fear his age and the risk of injury will limit how many games he plays. I’d rather go with Logan Thompson or Jack Campbell, even if they are in a timeshare role. Campbell in particular could be interesting, considering he looked better than Stuart Skinner in the preseason and got the opening night start, even though it didn’t go all that well. He might have the most upside of what’s on your wire.
If you have the IR space, I think you could stash Leo Carlsson, though I don’t know how much value he’ll have this season. His true impact probably won’t be seen for another couple of years.
As for Matthew Knies, he’s starting on the third line and isn’t playing with Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, William Nylander or John Tavares, or getting time on the top power play right now. That’s not ideal, but if Nylander drops back down to centre on that third line at some point, Knies would be much more valuable.
Timeshares are here to stay as they are becoming more of a trend around the league. Thatcher Demko and Jacob Markstrom from the Pacific are two of the few goalies who can play upwards of 55-plus games, but I think I’d rather have guys like Adin Hill or Logan Thompson. They might play a bit less but the teams in front of them are stronger and their upside is much higher. That’s not to say Markstrom and Demko aren’t valuable, they just may have a few more rough outings along the way.
Without knowing who’s available in your league, I’d look at some 1Bs or backups on strong teams that may have a chance to steal a job. Schmid, Joseph Woll or Joel Hofer come to mind and maybe Jonas Johansson as a temporary solution. You can also keep an eye on the goalie landscape in the first couple of weeks to see if someone like Pyotr Kochetkov emerges as a good option because of an injury to a starter.
I wonder if Scott Laughton might be a fit. He was solid for faceoff wins last year and he has 45-50 point potential. Laughton is also very good for hits and he could give you an average of about two per game. As for Owen Tippett, I’d give him a chance. He’s a very versatile player that can help you in a lot of areas. If his deployment isn’t good after the first couple of weeks, you can always move on then.
He could have a bright future and is getting some time on power play one right now, but I’d temper your expectations where Luke Evangelista is concerned for this season. The Nashville Predators aren’t exactly loaded with offensive talent up front and likely won’t be a high-scoring team, so I wouldn’t anticipate more than 50 points in a best-case scenario for 2023-24.
Will O’Reilly have a comeback season in Nashville? He gets a lot of playtime!
Ryan O’Reilly’s offence has declined in recent years, though the Predators are really leaning on him in the early part of the season. His ice time has been way up so far, including playing nearly 22 minutes on opening night with Filip Forsberg on the top line. If he keeps getting this deployment and can stay healthy, maybe 60 points isn’t out of the question.
I think both of these guys are going to play pretty regularly, and the Edmonton Oilers figure to ride the hot hand. Maybe you try to grab Jack Campbell and keep Skinner so you have the tandem. That way you should have a decent option every night. I’m not too worried about Skinner, though. Campbell will eventually go on a cold streak and Skinner will get another look. Plus, I don’t see Campbell playing like 55 times, so even in a worst-case scenario, Skinner should still get his fair share of starts.
Definitely too early to panic. It hasn’t been an ideal start for Vladimir Tarasenko, but it’s going to be tough to evaluate him until the Ottawa Senators get Josh Norris and Shane Pinto back in the lineup to complete their forward group. Ottawa is thin down the middle right now and things should get better when those two return. I’d try to hold Tarasenko until they get back.
I like Kirby Dach’s chances at a breakout more if he’s playing wing with Cole Caufield and Nick Suzuki. Right now he’s centering the second line, and I don’t think that puts him in as strong of a spot to produce offensive numbers. I don’t trust the consistency of anyone outside of Suzuki and Caufield on the Montreal Canadiens at the moment. Dach would have to post huge power play numbers to have a shot at a significant breakout with his current deployment.
I talked a bit about Krug earlier and how I think Faulk is the better option because he’s always able to out-produce Krug with worse deployment.
For the other defenders, I’d hang onto K’Andre Miller and Sean Durzi. I haven’t seen enough from Cam York yet to trust him and I think Durzi has a real chance at a breakout if he gets top power play time in Arizona.