Could Auston Matthews score 70 this season? I think it’s possible.
Matthews is on pace for 74 goals and for most that would be unsustainable, but Matthews is in a category all to himself. His ability to score in bunches is unrivalled, making him almost immune to scoring slumps. Sure, Matthews can go cold at times, like earlier this season when he had just one goal in eight games, but he makes up for it with stretches like the one he’s on now, scoring two goals in five of his past eight games to get him to 26 already.
To further that point, Matthews actually hasn’t scored in more than half his games in 2023-24, yet he’s still on a better pace than he was a couple of years ago when he scored 60. That year he didn’t record his 26th goal until Jan. 31.
The last season we had a 70-goal scorer was 1992-93, when both Alexander Mogilny and Teemu Selanne recorded 76, so it would be an incredible accomplishment if Matthews pulls this off. Either way, the chase to get there will be fun to watch.
Time for your questions:
I’d say it’s pretty clearly Pyotr Kochetkov. Devon Levi has had his ups and downs this season and the Buffalo Sabres aren’t nearly as strong as the Carolina Hurricanes. Plus, with Antti Raanta waived and the lack of clarity around when Frederik Andersen will return, Kochetkov has a great opportunity to take the net and get a ton of starts.
I think it would depend how valuable wins are specifically in your league. Tristan Jarry’s numbers, a .913 save percentage and a 2.61 goals-against average, aren’t that bad at all. I think you’d have a hard time replacing that on waivers, even if you get really good matchups. Now, if wins are really valuable and more important than the other stats, you could probably make the move. There would probably be better options as the Pittsburgh Penguins look to be headed for a tough season.
I think they will ride the hot hand. I’m sure they’d like to lean on Ilya Samsonov more because of his contract and his role last season, but if he continues to struggle mightily to find his game, Martin Jones will get his opportunities. He’s experienced enough that the Toronto Maple Leafs won’t hesitate to go to him regularly if he earns it. Based on Samsonov’s play of late, I think the door is wide open for Jones.
I don’t really see it, unfortunately. Arthur Kaliyev provides decent production for the minutes he plays, but it’s unlikely he bumps anyone out of the top six. He could work as a streaming option in weeks where the Los Angeles Kings play four times, but I don’t think Kaliyev will get enough ice time to justify holding long term.
In cases where you have a struggling player such as Timo Meier whose value is very low, I always think it’s best to try to trade for another underperforming player who you are more confident will bounce back. That’s really the only way you have any hope of getting a decent return. No one is going to give up much for Meier now, but would someone trade Alex Ovechkin, for example? Ovechkin is also having a nightmare season, so maybe you make a swap and Ovechkin at least finds some of his game again.
It’s not an ideal scenario, but it’s better than trading Meier for someone comparable to what you could grab on waivers anyway and at least you’ll feel like you didn’t just throw away the asset. Of course, it’s possible that Ovechkin continues to struggle, but sometimes that’s a risk you have to take if someone such as Meier is really hurting your roster.
The last resort would be dropping him. I’m sure those that drafted Meier this season likely used a fairly substantial pick to do so, given his usually proficient production in points and hits. Unless Meier can work his way back into the New Jersey Devils top six, though, I don’t see him really finding his game again.
There are a couple to look at. Brock Faber is playing huge minutes and the points are starting to come. When Jared Spurgeon returns, Faber could lose value, though. There’s also Jake McCabe, who’s suddenly on a very nice points run and also has decent value for hits and blocks. That won’t last forever, so you could catch lightning in a bottle with McCabe as a short-term option.
If you have the IR space, keep him, but if not, you may have to look at other options. I get you’re in a deep league, but Seth Jones doesn’t have that much value this season. He’ll struggle for offence on a weak Chicago Blackhawks team and you could probably replace his peripheral stats on waivers if need be.
I’d actually go with Tim Stutzle here. I know Matthew Tkachuk is destined to bounce back because of a low shooting percentage, but even if he does, he still might only get to 80 points or so. That’s still 25-30 fewer than he had the past two years. Stutzle is pacing for over 90 points and his shooting percentage is actually almost half of his career average. Even if that improves a little, he could be a 100-point player. You may lose out on a few shots by going with Stutzle, but you should more than make up for it in points.
I’d roll the dice on Filip Gustavsson. He’s been really good the past 10 games or so and is probably going to get a lot more playing time than Logan Thompson when Adin Hill gets healthy. Plus, Thompson’s numbers outside of wins have been a little mediocre and he’s injured. Gustavsson could actually end up being a hold if he keeps this going.
If you can get someone like Troy Terry for Meier, I would do it, at this point. As we discussed in an earlier answer, it’s going to be tough to get fair value for Meier going forward and at least Terry is a decent return. He’s been putting up points lately and the Anaheim Ducks have plenty of offensive talent around him. Terry is probably a good bet if you have to part with Meier.
I don’t think lack of opportunities has been the issue with Dylan Cozens this season. He’s been in the top six most of the year and was leaned on even more when Tage Thompson was hurt. Cozens just isn’t producing as well as he did last year and players like JJ Peterka, Casey Mittelstadt and Zach Benson have really emerged. Benson, for instance, is on power-play one, where Cozens was once a staple. Cozens has been finding the scoresheet more as of late and has increased his shot volume, which would be good if it continues.
Ovechkin or Barzal for the rest of the season?
You have to go with Mathew Barzal at this point. He’s on pace for a career high in points and Ovechkin has not had a great season at all. Maybe there’s a chance Ovechkin has some miraculous turnaround, but Barzal is the safer, long-term bet at the moment.
If it’s a points-only league and you can survive without Darnell Nurse, that’s probably what I would do. I think the others have more value than Nurse in this scenario because Nurse is more of an asset in multi-cat formats.
I hear you, as Kirill Marchenko has had a lot of flashes that makes you really see his potential. That said, I’d still trust Lucas Raymond a little more. He has more of a sample size and a better team around him. Marchenko is still rosterable, though, in deep leagues.
This one is so close, it’s almost a coin flip. I’d lean toward the Stutzle-Bo Horvat duo, though. I have the most confidence in Stutzle out of the four players listed there and Horvat has really built a strong connection with Barzal. I worry a bit about Filip Forsberg suffering because someone like Ryan O’Reilly is not keeping up the pace he’s set. O’Reilly is producing at a rate that he hasn’t in years. Stutzle and Horvat are the safest pair.
I’m not sure if I’d be that confident in Jamie Drysdale. The talent is certainly there, but Drysdale has struggled to stay healthy and he is still very inexperienced. Plus, Victor Hedman is having a great season, so I’m not sure Drysdale will be able to instantly replace Hedman’s numbers. I think Drysdale is a fine pickup, just don’t give away Hedman unless you get a great return.
Trevor Moore or Jon Marchessault, ROS?
They have very similar numbers, but I’ll say Jonathan Marchessault, just by a hair. I like Trevor Moore, but Marchessault is more proven when it comes to offensive production. Moore has plenty of upside but he’s never eclipsed 50 points.
Is Samsonov a safe drop? He stinks. Keep Woll.
Definitely keep Joseph Woll, but Samsonov is getting very close to droppable territory. After Thursday’s 9-3 nightmare against the Buffalo Sabres, Samsonov seems to have reached a low point on the season and he’s in very real danger of losing his spot to Jones until Woll is healthy. Dare I say if Woll wasn’t injured, Samsonov could be heading to the AHL for a stint to work on his game. We’ve already seen it happen with Edmonton’s Jack Campbell.
I think there’s a bigger long-term concern here, though. What if the Leafs don’t think the situation is salvageable and decide to just go with Woll and Jones the rest of the way when Woll is ready to return? It probably wouldn’t be that difficult to move off Samsonov’s contract and Toronto could certainly use the cap space it would bring. I’m not saying it’s likely but it wouldn’t shock me if it’s crossed their minds. Whatever happens, I think Samsonov has a long road back to have real fantasy relevance this season.
I would say it’s more likely Artturi Lehkonen makes it up to the top line and the first power play than he scores at a 70-point pace. The Colorado Avalanche have been moving different options up and down in the top six all season, so Lehkonen will almost surely get a look back up there eventually. Lehkonen did score at a 65-point pace last season over 64 games, so I suppose it’s not impossible he could up that a bit for a shorter stretch to close out this season. Still, he hasn’t been anywhere close to that for the rest of his career and Lehkonen will be coming off a pretty significant injury. The odds are against him.
I’d go with Sean Durzi and K’Andre Miller. Aaron Ekblad hasn’t been super fantasy relevant other than that one season a couple of years ago, so I think Miller has more upside. I don’t think there’s any issue with stashing Andersen and Max Pacioretty. They would be low-risk, high-reward options where you really have nothing to lose by adding them.