It looks like it could be the end of the road for Jack Campbell with the Edmonton Oilers.
Campbell was waived earlier this week after an abysmal start to the season, which followed a really rough first year in Edmonton. Stuart Skinner hasn’t been good either, but Campbell has the big contract and he simply wasn’t living up to it.
There were warning signs that the Oilers may have invested too much in Campbell. His numbers as a whole looked fairly good during his time in Toronto, but he had some wild swings of play. There were times he looked like a Vezina candidate and others where he played like he wasn’t even an NHL goalie.
The bigger fantasy story here is the Oilers should be a great destination to roster goalies. They have the talent to be an elite team that props netminders up and helps them fill the win column. So far, though, neither Campbell or Skinner have been rosterable.
At some point you’d think Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl will put this team on their backs and hopefully Skinner, and maybe even Calvin Pickard, can take advantage of it.
Time for your questions:
Maybe it’s just me, but I’m not as concerned about Ilya Sorokin as others are. He’s 3-2-3 with a .908 save percentage and a shutout, and if a couple of those overtime games go the New York Islanders way, Sorokin’s numbers would look pretty darn good. Plus, in his four starts where he was under .900, he had at least 30 saves. I know it’s concerning that Semyon Varlamov has stolen a few starts here, but Sorokin is a Vezina candidate, so you need to get more than Matt Poitras if you’re ready to move on from him.
In a league that big, I’m not moving on from Ilya Samsonov just yet. I’d imagine your waiver wire isn’t stocked with great replacements in net and even as inconsistent as Samsonov has played, I still see the Toronto Maple Leafs using him fairly regularly. The simply can’t let Joseph Woll, who only has 19 games of NHL experience, play 60-plus times, no matter how good he looks. He’s going to burnout come playoff time. As long as he doesn’t completely fall apart, Samsonov is still probably going to get 45 per cent of the games on a strong team and in a deep league like yours, that’s really valuable.
Normally I’d advise against trading Connor McDavid because you’ll almost always lose the deal, but this is actually a pretty fair offer. If this is a one-year league I think you can consider it because Cale Makar and Kirill Kaprizov is a fine return that should pay huge dividends. If it’s a keeper league, I think I’d still hang onto McDavid. He’s money in the bank.
Given how capped out the Vancouver Canucks are, I can’t really see it. I suppose if Tyler Myers had a really great season and was willing to take a major discount they could consider it, but I’d bet Myers would get more on the open market and given his age, he probably wouldn’t want to pass that up.
Under 3 per cent rostered is really tough to find value. Maybe someone like Brendan Gallagher could be worth a look. He’s off to a decent start offensively and provides a bit of shot volume. I think if you’re looking at someone who’s that low rostered, though, you might be better off targeting a category specialist. Someone that’s really effective for hits or blocks let’s say. Ideally, you’d want to stream these players when you need help in a specific category and then cycle them out when your needs change.
I’d prefer Jacob Trouba here. Owen Power may provide a little more offence, but Trouba’s production with hits and blocks is far superior than Power’s. I’d imagine the rest of your roster has enough offence to make Trouba worth keeping over Power, even if you are sacrificing a few points.
Anything is possible with goalies, it seems. I’m sure the Oilers are willing to roll with anyone that gives them some saves right about now, including Calvin Pickard. In a perfect world, I’m sure the Oilers would like Stuart Skinner to step up and play the way he did last year in the regular season and stabilize things, but they can’t be picky. We saw a journeyman AHL goalie come from relative obscurity last year in Pheonix Copley to help bail out the Los Angeles Kings, so maybe Pickard can do the same for the Oilers.
Huberdeau and Johnny Hockey on the waiver wire. They worth a spot? Thanks!!
It depends who you’re dropping for them, but I can’t say I have much confidence in either Jonathan Huberdeau or Johnny Gaudreau right now. If you have an expendable player that you aren’t concerned about it may not hurt to give one a shot as a buy very low candidate. Just don’t get your hopes up.
How would you rank Ehlers/Buchnevich/Lehkonen for the rest of season?
I’d rank Artturi Lehkonen first because he’s in the best situation, but he was just injured. So, I’d recommend seeing his status before grabbing him. Then I’d say Nik Ehlers, because he has a bit more potential than Pavel Buchnevich, even if he may never realize it. I’m concerned about Buchnevich the most because I don’t like the way the St. Louis Blues are trending.
Scott Laughton and Jean-Gabriel Pageau are two I really like and both should be widely available. If I had to choose, I’d go with Laughton. He does a little bit of everything and has more offensive upside. Pageau is more valuable in leagues that track faceoff wins.
I’m in a G/A league. Thinking of dropping Duchene. Too early?
It’s not too early. Matt Duchene’s last real fantasy relevant season came a couple of years ago with an inflated shooting percentage and the Dallas Stars don’t get much offence outside of their top line. I think Duchene is probably comparable to a number of players on your waiver wire.
I’d go with the Arizona Coyotes duo. I’ve been especially impressed with Connor Ingram, who already has four wins and a .919 save percentage. Out of the defenders, I’d go with Travis Sanheim. He’s quieted down a bit, but is still getting monster minutes.
Alex DeBrincat could be a sell-high candidate depending on the return, but I wouldn’t be rushing out to move him. He was never going to be able to continue at the pace he started the year at, though I still think he can comfortably get to 40 goals and 80 points. DeBrincat is just a little more streaky than some other high-end players. He’ll be fine.
It’s the same story every year with Ehlers. So much talent and it never really comes together. Part of that is deployment, as amazingly, Ehlers is somehow playing even less than he did last season, even with Gabriel Vilardi sidelined. At this point, I think the best hope for Ehlers is that he has a big game here and there, but it’s going to be hard to roster him all season long.
We’re not at the point to call McDavid a buy-low option yet, but he is projecting for his worst statistical season since he was a rookie and he doesn’t seem quite 100 per cent healthy. He’s currently on pace for around 90 points, so could someone be tempted to move him for the right offer? It’s possible, but here’s the problem. We’re talking about McDavid like he’s struggling and he’s still on track for close to 90 points, so it would take a pretty big haul to get someone to move him. If he picks it up even a little bit, he could easily cruise to another scoring title.
Offering Auston Matthews is one player that could get it done. He already has 13 goals in 13 games, so he has 65-goal potential this season. If it’s a league that has a bigger emphasis on goals, Matthews could be a tempting option.
What type of league you’re in is an important consideration, too. If this is a keeper league, I would think you’re less likely to move McDavid. Even if he has a down year for his standards, that’s easy to stomach because he’ll likely bounce-back in major way going forward. If it’s only a one-year scenario, maybe you’d take a chance on Matthews because he’s off to such an incredible start. If it were me, I don’t think I’d make the deal from either side. If I had Matthews I wouldn’t chance moving him given how well he’s playing and if I had McDavid, I’d prefer to keep him because I think the odds of me winning any type of trade that involves moving him are extremely low.
After last season, it’s been a disappointing start for Owen Tippett. Outside of shot volume, he isn’t really trending great in many categories. I think we have to remember a player’s development isn’t always linear and just because they broke out last season, doesn’t mean they will continue on an upward trajectory going forward. It’s also important to note that Cam Atkinson and Sean Couturier are back, Travis Konecny is healthy and Bobby Brink has emerged. That means Tippett is playing almost two minutes less per game than he did last season. I think it’s fair to look at other options at this point if Tippett is really hurting you.
I’m giving a slight edge to Kyle Connor here. I think both players are pretty comparable, but I’d give Connor a big edge for shots on goal. He’s almost doubling Aleksander Barkov’s totals in that category at the moment. You can’t really go wrong with either, though.
I’m not giving up on either unless you’re really desperate. I think both Valeri Nichushkin and Pierre-Luc Dubois are on great teams and haven’t exactly been horrible. Dubois should be especially valuable in a multi-cat league.
Make me feel better as an Addison investor
Going to the San Jose Sharks isn’t ideal, but at least Calen Addison is probably going to get big minutes and top power play time. There are plenty of players that have had great fantasy value on bad teams.
It’s unclear when Max Pacioretty will return, but if you can stash him on IR and he isn’t hurting your roster, why not? There are very few players that can score at the rate Pacioretty can and his upside is likely better than anyone on waivers at the moment.
The Addison trade should definitely give him more opportunity and probably some extra power play time, but I don’t think we’ll see him become an offensive juggernaut this season. His shot volume isn’t very high and the Minnesota Wild are only starting him in the offensive zone just 45 per cent of the time. I’d say Faber should have a ceiling of 40-45 points this season.
It would take something pretty spectacular to make Elias Lindholm an elite fantasy option once again. He’s scoring at a 55-point pace which isn’t terrible, though you’d expect a lot more from him at this point. I’d hang onto to him until one of those guys you have on the IR gets healthy and then make a decision from there. I agree, though, he’d be tough to keep if you had to free up a roster spot to activate someone from the IR.
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen seems to be the guy they are leaning on right now. Out of his past four starts, two were really good and one was just okay, while the other was awful. Devon Levi is still in the mix too and he could easily take over the net as well. I think my answer is I wouldn’t be rushing to grab either unless you really need someone.
Anaheim and their goalies legit?
They Anaheim Ducks will likely regress at some point, but they are playing way better than expected right now. The good thing here is they have a few young players taking big steps this season like Mason McTavish, Pavel Mintyukov and Lukas Dostal. It doesn’t hurt that Frank Vatrano has been on a tear either. I’d still be comfortable rostering Dostal because he’s been really good. If the Ducks start to struggle you can always drop him for a different option.
I think I’d probably take this deal. I know Seth Jarvis is off to a great start and the Oilers are struggling, but I think they’ll figure it out eventually. Even if Ryan Nugent-Hopkins doesn’t hit 100 points again, he has a lot of room to regress and still have huge value. Let’s say Nugent-Hopkins has a 25-point dropoff, he’d still be close to 80 points. Jarvis has never even topped 40 points.