Five NHL breakout candidates to watch in the 2023-24 season

One of the most exciting aspects of a new NHL season is discovering under-the-radar players who are poised to make an impact.

Who will it be in 2023-24? Here are five players who are ready to take a leap:

CONNOR BROWN, EDMONTON OILERS

Normally, a 29-year-old player would not qualify as a breakout candidate, but Brown missed all but four games for the Washington Capitals last season after tearing his ACL. The Oilers signed him to a one-year deal hoping he will pick up where he left off before the knee injury.

Two seasons ago, Brown was a productive possession driver for the Ottawa Senators, averaging 19.6 such plays per 20 minutes at 5-on-5. That ranked 44th out of 521 forwards who played a minimum of 100 minutes. Brown was particularly effective at carrying the puck out of the defensive zone, finishing 26th in that category.

Those instincts will come in handy in Edmonton, where Brown, a two-time 20-goal scorer, is slated to play on junior teammate Connor McDavid’s line. Brown’s straight-ahead style should help create plentiful scoring opportunities for himself and his linemates.

NOAH CATES, PHILADELPHIA FLYERS

In his first full NHL season, Cates turned heads with his play without the puck, even receiving a handful of votes for the Selke Trophy. At 5-on-5, Cates made 6.63 defensive plays (pass blocks, shot blocks, stick checks and body checks) per 20 — ninth among 503 qualified forwards last season. The 24-year-old forward eventually became one of Flyers coach John Tortorella’s go-to players in shutdown situations.

The next step for Cates, whose 38 points placed him sixth in rookie scoring last season, will be to level up offensively.

“We don’t need to worry about him as far as his play away from the puck,” Tortorella told reporters recently. “He gets that. Now he has to put some pressure on himself as far as the offensive part of the game, without losing that part, which he won’t.”

SEAN DURZI, ARIZONA COYOTES

Durzi, who turns 25 later this month, arrives in Arizona after recording a career-high 38 points in 72 games with the Los Angeles Kings. Sixteen of those points came on the power play, where Durzi should see more ice time this season as the quarterback of the Coyotes’ top unit.

Durzi knew how to tee up the puck for his teammates, averaging 0.48 passes for one-timers per two minutes on the power play last season — tied for 11th out of 81 defencemen who played at least 50 minutes on the man advantage. The Coyotes’ No. 1 unit is expected to feature Clayton Keller, Nick Schmaltz, Barrett Hayton and Dylan Guenther up front, so Durzi is in a good spot.

DEVON LEVI, BUFFALO SABRES

The highly touted goaltending prospect made his NHL debut late last season after leaving Northeastern University, helping the Sabres make a last-ditch playoff push by winning five of his seven starts. Levi, 21, posted an .878 slot save percentage in all situations, the second-best mark out of 96 goaltenders who played at least 100 minutes. (The average slot save percentage within that group was .821.)

The Sabres will lean on Levi as they attempt to end their 12-year playoff drought — the longest in NHL history. 

JAKE SANDERSON, OTTAWA SENATORS

Sanderson struck it rich after just 77 NHL games, signing an eight-year, $64.4 million contract on Sept. 6. To his credit, Sanderson, 21, was excellent in his rookie season, specifically in his own end. Sanderson’s 5.93 defensive plays per 20 in all situations were ninth-most among 289 qualified blueliners. He was slippery in open ice as well, finishing tied for 27th with 1.53 dekes per 20.

Although Sanderson was the second-leading scorer among rookie defencemen with 32 points, there is a lot of room for him to grow offensively. That is a scary thought for opponents.

All stats via Sportlogiq