For as flip as people have become about the idea of trading Mitch Marner, it’s critical to remember there’s nothing easy about this kind of transaction.
First off, let’s not bury the lede. No matter the context, dealing away a 95-point player who gets Selke votes and turned 27 one day after the Toronto Maple Leafs were eliminated by the Boston Bruins on Saturday night requires a GTA-sized gulp on the part of the club shipping him out.
There’s also the reality that the Leafs winger has a full no-move clause and an agent, in Darren Ferris, that Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman keeps reminding us tends to encourage his clients to use the trade protection negotiated on their behalf and ultimately guides them toward the open market, which Marner can hit in a little less than 14 months.
And, for as much value as Marner has, the pieces have to line up. You can’t just walk into the Right Shot Defenceman Store and say, “I have a Mitch Marner to spend, gimmie a 25-year-old, top-pair RHD!”
Friedman also raised a great point on the Real Kyper and Bourne Show on Monday: Prior to the Leafs inking William Nylander to an in-season extension, they were resolute in the idea that — if they went down the trade path — it was only going to be for a clear win. As in, we’ll trade you Nylander, but you’ll be sending us a player who brings equivalent value on the blue line.
But in the case of Marner — given all the caveats surrounding this potential transaction — the pertinent question Friedman posed is this: Would Toronto be willing to lose a Marner deal?
That doesn’t mean exactly what it sounds like because, of course, it doesn’t. No team sets out to lose swaps. But the immediate optics of a Marner deal are unlikely to make Blue and White supporters start turning backflips. It’s almost certainly not going to be for the Mitch Marner of defencemen or the six-foot-three version of Marner up front because it’s so unlikely another team would be willing to move that player.
It might be four quarters for a dollar. It might involve draft picks that can be flipped later. Most critically, it might be to free up cap space to make a real run at inking potential UFA defencemen like Chris Tanev, Brandon Montour or Brett Pesce.
So, with all that in mind — and with some help from Sportsnet.ca senior editor Josh Beneteau — let’s take that deep breath and whip up some Marner trade proposals.
(Also, since Marner would have to give a thumbs up to any swap, let’s assume he’d also be inking an extension with his new squad).
Columbus Blue Jackets get: RW Mitch Marner
Toronto Maple Leafs get: 2024 fourth-overall pick, C/W Kent Johnson
Why the Leafs do it: You’re probably clearing upwards of $9.5 million in cap space that you could immediately turn around and throw at the blue line. Free up a little more space and you might be able to take a legit run at two right-shot, Ontario guys in Tanev and Montour.
Johnson is an RFA who seems very much in line for a short, bridge contract. He’s got loads of skill, but things haven’t gone smoothly in Ohio for the 21-year-old.
The Leafs could dangle No. 4 pick for an immediate return or take a blue-liner in this defenceman-rich draft who won’t help them right now, but could be a major fixture from 2026-2040.
Why the Blue Jackets do it: First off, if Mark Hunter is named Columbus’ new GM in the next little while, get ready for this to become an actual rumour. Hunter, of course, was with the OHL’s London Knights when Marner landed there as a major junior player and guided the Leafs toward Marner when the former was part of Toronto’s front office in 2015 and the latter was available at — wait for it — fourth overall.
The Jackets could sit tight and select a prime prospect at No. 4, possibly Knights defenceman Sam Dickinson. But this franchise — unlike others at the top of the board — did not intend to be picking this high in 2024. Columbus — which had no shortage of bad press over the fiasco of hiring Mike Babcock last summer and wound up axing long-time GM Jarmo Kekalainen in-season — wants to get better yesterday, as indicated by the big moves it was making last year around this time to land defencemen Damon Severson and Ivan Provorov.
Marner would be an enormous addition to the forward group for a team that doesn’t really need another top prospect thanks to the presence of centre Adam Fantilli and right-shot defenceman David Jiricek.
Columbus is also not the kind of team that’s going to be scared off by any perceived shortcomings Marner has in the playoffs. The Jackets just want to get to the post-season; how everybody does once they’re in is a tomorrow question.
Seattle Kraken get: RW Mitch Marner
Toronto Maple Leafs get: C Shane Wright, D Adam Larsson
Why Toronto does it: Larsson is a large, right-shot defenceman who logs significant minutes. He turns 32 in November and is eligible to become a UFA after next season, so you’d certainly hope to extend him three years beyond that.
Wright has been through it. The Toronto-area kid was projected to go No. 1 in the 2022 draft for years in advance of the event, then fell to No. 4 on draft day. His development has been hindered by pandemics, trades, bouncing between leagues, etc. But last year he spent more or less the entire winter in the AHL and looked good when he joined Seattle for the final days of the schedule and notched four goals in five games. It sure seems like the righty has a future as a reliable 2C and he’s on an entry-level deal for the next two seasons.
Why the Kraken do it: They’ve already fired a coach, so Seattle is obviously itching for more. This squad has a framework in place, but lacks high-end talent. Marner adds a serious dose of just that.
Calgary Flames get: RW Mitch Marner, C Fraser Minten, LW Nick Robertson, D Timothy Liljegren
Toronto Maple Leafs get: G Jacob Markstrom*, D Rasmus Andersson
*Flames retain 25 per cent of Markstrom’s remaining salary
Why the Leafs do it: Both Markstrom and Andersson are under contract for two more seasons. You’re adding a goalie who had great underlying numbers last year — albeit at age 34 — and a right-shot D-man who plays big minutes. With Calgary retaining a bit on Markstrom, it’s basically a wash cap-wise and you’re adding big pieces in two areas of need.
Minten is a quality prospect, but the emergence of 2023 first-rounder Easton Cowan and the presence of youngster Matthew Knies gives you enough next-generation guys up front.
Why the Flames do it: Every transaction Calgary has made in the past 12 months indicates the club is not interested in a tear-down rebuild. Marner has three more seasons left in his 20s, so he’s a guy who helps now and down the road.
Liljegren is no Andersson, but he’s a right-shot guy who can slot in on the bottom pair and try to sketch out a new chapter of his career having just turned 25. Robertson has shown goal-scoring potential and Minten is a plug-and-play prospect who, at worst, will be a fantastic third-line centre and leader.
Both Robertson and Liljegren are RFAs this summer and both should be relatively simple signs.
Philadelphia Flyers get: RW Mitch Marner
Toronto Maple Leafs get: C Scott Laughton, D Mario Ferraro, San Jose’s 2024 second-round pick
San Jose Sharks get: D Oliver Bonk
Why the Leafs do it: Laughton’s name was out there before the deadline, but only if somebody blew Philly away with an offer. That’s because he’s a hard-to-play-against centre who could settle in as a great 3C or play up in the two-hole — especially if one of his wingers was as talented as his fellow Oakville native John Tavares or stud William Nylander. Laughton turns 30 this summer and makes $3 million against the cap for two more seasons. Ferraro, meanwhile, is a 25-year-old lefty who counts for basically the same number, also for two more years. You could probably add these guys and still take a run at Tanev or flip San Jose’s second-rounder — which would be the 33rd overall selection in the draft — for help in goal or on the blue line.
Why the Flyers do it: Philly is making future-focused moves while also reconciling the fact it came so close to making the playoffs this year. Even if GM Daniel Brière remains committed to long-term solutions, could you see them coming back next September with lottery aspirations? Marner, at 27, is just young enough that you’d be OK sending a package this significant out the door for a difference-maker who can help you for the next decade.
Bottom line: Philly covets more skill.
Moving Bonk would hurt, but the Flyers still hold the 12th pick in the upcoming draft, which is loaded with quality D-men.
Also, Marner and John Tortorella on the same bench? Yes, please.
Why the Sharks do it: On one hand, having just won the right to draft Macklin Celebrini, you could see San Jose’s desire to keep quality, young-ish bodies like Ferraro around. Still, you might as well lean in and opt for the upside of Bonk, a rangy righty who could wind up anchoring your first or second pair for a long time.