The Friday Four is a collection of thoughts and information on some intriguing player storylines from around the NHL. On deck this week:
• Marchand parallels with Stamkos in final year of contract
• Hard to ignore signs of decline in Vasilevskiy
• Dubois finding a home in Washington
• Lyon trying to play saviour once again
You don’t often see a captain getting berated by his head coach on the bench. Let alone a captain who’s entering his 16th season, who’s played over 1,000 games and who’s won a Stanley Cup with the franchise.
Jim Montgomery doesn’t seem like the sentimental type, though. He had no problem giving Brad Marchand a major earful last week during a game against Utah, when the Boston Bruins forward turned the puck over, leading to a goal. It ended up being called back on an offside, so you could only imagine the fury Montgomery would’ve unleashed had it counted.
There doesn’t appear to be any lingering hostility between Marchand and Montgomery following the incident, at least not publicly, anyway. That said, Marchand’s relationship with his head coach and the organization will be under the microscope this season in Boston, as the veteran is in the final year of his contract and faces an uncertain future with the franchise. Marchand will be 37 next spring and the Bruins will surely want him back, but at what price?
It seems almost unfathomable that Marchand could be playing somewhere else next season, although I’m sure that’s what Tampa Bay Lightning fans thought about Steven Stamkos, too. Stamkos is a little younger than Marchand, but the situations are very similar. The Lightning and Bruins are each up against the cap and desperately trying to keep their competitive window open. It didn’t matter that Stamkos won Cups with the franchise and was the captain, as the Lightning made a very difficult choice they thought was best for the franchise. Now, it will be up to Bruins management to navigate that same road with Marchand.
There’s no denying Marchand is still a good player. He had 67 points in each of the past two seasons and always shows up when the Bruins need him most in the post-season. Marchand has 138 points in his past 151 playoff games and is a nightmare for the opposition to deal with. He walks the perfect line of playing on the edge and can impact the game all over the ice.
Marchand has also been playing on a very friendly deal for the past eight seasons. He’s easily outperformed his $6.1-million AAV and the Bruins have greatly benefited from a contract that was one of the biggest steals during that timeframe. To put that in perspective, his cap hit is sixth on the team — behind the likes of Hampus Lindholm. Given his age and slight decline over the past couple of seasons, I don’t necessarily think Marchand is going to demand a raise, but he may not be so eager to take a massive discount like old pal Patrice Bergeron did at the end of his career. Marchand could very well end up playing a few more seasons and he’s already spent a handful of years on a discount.
That could clash with what the Bruins think he’s worth at this point in his career. We just witnessed a very contentious contract negotiation with Boston and Jeremy Swayman, where the Bruins ultimately caved somewhat. They may have been OK doing that for a 25-year-old franchise goaltender, but for a declining winger who turns 37 next spring, they might be less willing to bend. Even so, Marchand can still provide impact and he may be most valuable to the Bruins because he would help keep their championship window open, even if it isn’t as wide as some other teams.
If Marchand did want to leave, there are logical arguments for doing so. It’s been 14 years since Marchand won a Cup and it’s going to be challenging for him to lift the trophy again before his career is done in Boston. These Bruins obviously have some great pieces in David Pastrnak, Charlie McAvoy and Swayman, but is there the depth to get through the Florida Panthers or New York Rangers in the East in the next couple of seasons? Or win a potential final series against one of the juggernauts from the West? There isn’t any significant money coming off their books next summer other than Marchand, so if they re-sign him, it’s going to limit who they add, barring very creative cap gymnastics. If Marchand’s ultimate goal is to win one more Cup before he retires, his best chance at that may be elsewhere.
Plus, Marchand is the last member standing of the old Bruins guard. Bergeron, David Krejci, Zdeno Chara and Tuukka Rask have all long since retired, so maybe the pull to stay with the Bruins at this point in Marchand’s career is a little weaker. We all saw how emotional he got after Bergeron’s final game and if Bergeron was still playing, it’d be hard to imagine Marchand leaving. But now it at least doesn’t seem like an impossibility.
One of the most shocking images early this season has been seeing Stamkos in a Nashville Predators jersey. Marchand wearing a different sweater would be just as jarring. The Lightning ultimately felt the cost of keeping Stamkos at his desired price and term was too great, but they had the advantage of knowing the younger and equally productive Jake Guentzel could take his place.
Boston, on the other hand, is in a tough spot, as it may not be able to afford to keep Marchand, but also might not be in a position where it can afford to lose him.
Andrei Vasilevskiy, Tampa Bay Lightning
Back in the opening round of the 2022 Stanley Cup playoffs, the Toronto Maple Leafs squared off against the Tampa Bay Lightning in Game 7, an environment where Andrei Vasilevskiy thrives. He was virtually impenetrable that night, stopping 30 of 31 shots and ultimately carrying his team on to the Cup Final. That was probably the last time Vasilevskiy looked like vintage Vasilevskiy.
The following year, Vasilevskiy posted an .875 save percentage and Tampa failed to win a playoff series for the first time since 2018-19. Last season, Vasilevskiy had the worst statistical season of his career and again fell short of his usual playoff standard. Now, he’s off to a really tough start, giving up 12 goals in his past three starts and sporting an .871 save percentage. Vasilevskiy is 30 and a year removed from back surgery, so some decline is certainly expected, but I’m not sure anyone expected it to be this sharp — especially the Lightning.
Tampa has constructed its roster somewhat around the fact that Vasilevskiy will help bail it out. The Lightning has let countless players walk and traded a few more with the hopes Vasilevskiy could pick up the slack. The Lightning aren’t as deep as they once were and it appears Vasilevskiy is no longer able to compensate for it.
Part of the reason for Tampa’s thinned-out roster is its salary-cap crunch, in part due to its investment in Vasilevskiy. His cap hit ranks second among active goalies at $9.5 million, though it’s likely to drop to third whenever Igor Shesterkin of the New York Rangers inks a new deal. Vasilevskiy’s contract runs three more years after this season and it isn’t going to age well unless he can really turn his game around.
Further complicating matters for the Lightning is their lack of a reliable backup. Because Vasilevskiy plays so much, they’ve never really had to invest in a quality No. 2 goaltender. Someone such as Jonas Johansson, who owns a career .888 save percentage, probably isn’t going to cut it anymore. Tampa needs an option who can play more and allow Vasilevskiy to rest. There are probably more miles on Vasilevskiy’s body than most of his peers. If he’s healthy, he normally plays 60-plus games and, don’t forget, he played an additional 71 playoff games over a three-year stretch from 2019-20 to 2021-22 during the Lightning’s three straight finals appearances.
In order to keep Vasilevskiy fresh, the capped-out Lightning will have to find a decent option in goal they are at least comfortable with playing 30-35 games. It’s not ideal, but in order to stay relevant in the East, there may be no other choice.
No one would be foolish enough to write off Vasilevskiy just yet, but it’s fair to wonder if he’ll ever reclaim his status as the best goalie in the world.
Pierre-Luc Dubois, Washington Capitals
Calling the Capitals’ trade for Pierre-Luc Dubois a risk would be a major understatement.
Washington took on a player who is owed $8.5 million for the next seven years and managed only 40 points last season with the Los Angeles Kings. Dubois was even relegated to the fourth line for stretches and his value was at an all-time low. That’s not exactly the type of player teams are racing to go out and grab.
Still, you could see the attraction for a team such as Washington. The Caps needed a centre and Dubois is the type of player with enough upside that could make a trade pay off in a big way. Washington was a surprise playoff team last year and if it hopes to remain competitive in Alexander Ovechkin’s final years, players like Dubois are going to be critical to those efforts.
Dubois didn’t necessarily arrive in Washington with the best reputation, either. He wanted out of Columbus, wasn’t interested in signing long-term in Winnipeg and was bad enough in Los Angeles that the Kings wanted to get rid of him one year after handing him a massive contract. The Caps were really buying low.
So far, so good for Dubois in his new city, though. He’s notched five points in six games, including a big three-point night Wednesday in a victory over the Philadelphia Flyers. Dubois is also anchoring a second line for the Capitals that has been a very pleasant surprise in the early part of the season. Connor McMichael, Tom Wilson and Dubois have combined for 19 points and powered the Capitals to a five-game winning streak.
Things had gotten so bad for Dubois before joining Washington that some were even pondering whether this would be his last chance to find his game. It’s a fair question to ask about a player who was a former third-overall pick and is already on his fourth team at age 26.
But if this is indeed a now-or-never season for Dubois, he’s certainly made the most of it thus far.
Another season, another year of Alex Lyon clawing his way up from third on the depth chart.
It’s still early, but it looks like Lyon has staked his claim to the Detroit Red Wings crease despite starting the year behind Ville Husso and Cam Talbot. Lyon is making this a habit, as this is the third-straight season he’s started as the odd man out, only to stabilize the goaltending situation for a floundering team.
Lyon surpassed Husso and James Reimer to play 44 games from the No. 3 spot last season and played well enough to keep the Red Wings in the playoff race right down to the wire.
Two seasons ago, Lyon yet again rescued a team in distress. For all the credit Matthew Tkachuk, Aleksander Barkov and Sergei Bobrovsky received for getting the Florida Panthers to the Cup Final in 2022-23, they wouldn’t even have had the opportunity if not for Lyon. The 31-year-old had a 6-1-0 record down the stretch with a .946 save percentage in April, carrying the Panthers to a last-minute playoff berth.
Now, Lyon again looks like Detroit’s best chance at ending its playoff drought. He’s coming off a shutout Tuesday night when his team was badly outshot 29-11, and he owns a sparkling .955 save percentage.
Lyon is in the final year of his deal making $900,000 and whether it’s in Detroit or somewhere else next summer, a goalie-needy team would probably be wise to give him a real opportunity to start or at least be part of a tandem. He’s earned it.