The Friday Four is a collection of thoughts and information on some intriguing player storylines from around the NHL. On deck this week is:
• Only a matter of time before Ovechkin passes Gretzky
• Makar looking to shatter 100-point mark
• Canes bet on Necas paying off in a big way
• Why Lankinen has been the Canucks most important player so far
Alexander Ovechkin, Washington Capitals
It’s not a matter of if, but when Alexander Ovechkin will pass Wayne Gretzky for the most goals in NHL history.
I suppose it was already that way coming into the season, though there probably was some doubt on whether Ovechkin could reach the milestone in 2024-25. He needed 42 goals to break the record this season, which isn’t easy for a 39-year-old who clearly started to slow down last year. Ovechkin managed just 31 goals in 2023-24, his lowest total in a full season for his entire career.
The record is in serious jeopardy now, though, as Ovechkin has already tallied eight of the required 42 goals in his first 12 games. That’s a 55-goal pace and even if Ovechkin inevitably slows down a little, he’s banked enough goals to where he should have little trouble passing Gretzky before the end of the season barring a major cold streak. He needs to score at a rate of 0.5 goals per game over the final 70 games to get the record, which is below his career average. That said, Ovechkin endured a stretch with one goal in 18 games last season, so he’s not immune anymore to going long stretches without scoring.
However, something seems different about Ovechkin this year and he appears to be in a much better position than he was in 2023-24 to fill the net with regularity. It’s not his shot volume, which is still declining. Ovechkin hasn’t hit 300 shots in each of the past two seasons and he’s on pace for even fewer this year, trending towards 268. That would be the lowest total of his career if you exclude the lockout and pandemic-shortened campaigns.
What also makes Ovechkin’s hot start more interesting is he’s starting less in the offensive zone than he has in recent years. His 78.1% offensive zone starts so far would be his lowest since 2020-21. Plus, only one of his goals has come on the power play and the Caps ranked dead last heading into Thursday when it comes to the man advantage.
The biggest positive change for Ovechkin may very well be his ice time, where less could be more. Ovechkin is averaging just 18:11 per game this year, more than a minute less than he played in 2023-24 and more than two minutes less than he played in each of the previous two seasons. At his age, Ovechkin needs to stay fresh and this is helping him do so. He looks more energized and engaged physically, as his hit totals would suggest. The Washington Capitals forward has 32 hits in 12 games, which works out to a 219-hit pace. That would be his highest total since 2018-19.
Washington, as a whole, looks much better, too. They’ve had great contributions in their top six from players like Connor McMichael and Aleksai Protas, and currently rank fourth in the NHL in goals for, averaging more than four per game. That’s a huge jump from the Caps 28th ranking a year ago and they’re averaging almost a goal-and-a-half more per game right now compared to 2023-24. Washington currently has six players on pace for well over 60 points, including four that are clicking at a point per game or better. If you compare that to last season, the Caps didn’t even have one 70-point player and only one, Dylan Strome, besides Ovechkin who hit the 60-point mark. It’s still very early, but Ovechkin seems to be in a much better situation than last year both physically and with the talent around him to propel him to a big offensive season.
It would be very difficult to pinpoint an exact game this season where Ovechkin could break the record, though the most fitting for storyline purposes would be in the final game of the year against the Pittsburgh Penguins and long-time rival Sidney Crosby. Both players have been the faces of a generation since they entered the league and this is a season of milestones for Crosby, too. He’s already crossed 1,600 points and soon 600 goals will follow.
If you want to witness history, though, I’d clear my evenings in late March and early April. I don’t think Gretzky’s mark will survive until that clash in Game 82 with Crosby. Ovechkin seems motivated to take care of business sooner rather than later.
Cale Makar, Colorado Avalanche
The list of defencemen to score 100 points in a season is few and far between, but there’s a good chance we can add Cale Makar to the list this season.
Makar has 23 points in 14 games, which works out to be a 134-point pace and only Bobby Orr and Paul Coffey have ever posted more than that in a single season. Now it’s unlikely Makar keeps up this pace for 82 games, though it’s hard to see a scenario where there’s a massive dropoff if he can stay healthy.
For one, despite their struggles to start the season in the win column, the Colorado Avalanche power play looks as potent as ever. It’s currently operating at 36.2 per cent and ranked second in the league, where Makar already has nine points on the man advantage. It’s a unit loaded with talent and players like Nathan MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen really make it easy for someone like Makar to pile up points.
Those two elite talents are part of the reason Makar could be in for a massive campaign at even strength, too. The Avs typically try to get Makar and partner Devon Toews out with MacKinnon and Rantanen’s line at five-on-five when they can, instead of in a shutdown role. That forms a very dangerous five-man unit that is constantly pushing for offense and Makar is playing with MacKinnon and Rantanen’s line nearly 15 per cent more at even strength than any other Avalanche forward group. It also certainly doesn’t hurt that Toews is very reliable defensively, allowing Makar to roam and push for offence. It shouldn’t surprise anyone if they are Canada’s top pair at the Four Nations Face-Off.
Let’s also keep in mind that as much talent as Makar has played with during this hot start, Colorado is still nowhere near full strength. Artturi Lehkonen just returned, Valeri Nichushkin should be back next week and Jonathan Drouin is still sidelined with an injury. All three should help drive offense and Nichushkin could make an already elite power play even better.
There also could be a perfect storm in Colorado this year for someone like Makar to put up massive offensive numbers. Heading into Thursday night, the Avs ranked in the bottom third of the league in high-danger chances allowed, last in goals against per game and last in team save percentage. Colorado has been bad defensively and worse in goal, so if they want to win games, the Avalanche are probably going to have to out-score their problems. That means major minutes from Makar, Rantanen and MacKinnon, often going all out for offence.
The most recent defenseman to hit 100 points was Erik Karlsson in 2022-23 and Roman Josi came close the year prior, and Makar seems to be in a much better position to surpass both of those campaigns. Even if Makar slows down some, 125 points seems like a realistic possibility and that would be a top-five offensive season from a blueliner all time. Don’t bet against it. Makar is that good.
Martin Necas, Carolina Hurricanes
Martin Necas’s torrid start to the season in Carolina almost didn’t happen.
Before signing a two-year deal worth $6.5M per season with the Hurricanes this summer, a trade didn’t just seem like a realistic possibility, it felt like an almost certainty. Reports swirled that Necas had asked for a trade and that Carolina had offers from several teams around the league, even getting to the point where the Hurricanes forward was reportedly permitted to speak to some of those teams about a potential contract. A fresh start seemed imminent.
In a quick about-face, though, both team and player opted to continue the relationship, leading to fantastic results thus far. Necas has exploded for 21 points out of the gates, which includes seven multi-point games. The 25-year-old looks like a different player this year, already closing in on half his point total from a season ago and three of his goals have been game winners.
What makes the start even more impressive is who Necas is playing with. He’s currently skating on the second line, away from all three of Carolina’s most potent offensive players in Andrei Svechnikov, Sebastian Aho and Seth Jarvis. Instead, he’s driving a second line that includes Eric Robinson and Jesperi Kotkaniemi. Not exactly two elite offensive talents.
To make up for it, Necas has feasted on the power play where he and the three aforementioned players are playing together on the top unit. He’s scored eight points on the man advantage and to put that in perspective, Necas had just 13 power-play points all of last year.
One other thing that could be contributing to Necas’s hot start is simply confidence. He came into this season on a high after winning a Gold Medal for Czechia last spring at the World Hockey Championships. While it may not be the Stanley Cup, some of the best players in the world participated in the tournament and winning a championship representing your country on home soil is an accomplishment very few players get to experience.
Although Necas playing this well is certainly surprising to some, we probably shouldn’t be too shocked his game is on the upswing. Necas is continuing his bizarre trend of alternating between mediocre and strong seasons. As a rookie, Necas managed 36 points in 2019-20, following that up by scoring at an impressive 63-point pace the following year. Then he regressed to 40 points in 2021-22 before recording 71 in 2022-23, but dropping all the way back to 53 last season. And now, right on cue, he looks like he’s poised for another great year.
This is maybe a long-winded way of saying Necas is inconsistently consistent, but it makes giving him a long-term deal challenging. Carolina probably wants to see him stack a couple of solid seasons together in a row before making a huge commitment, but if Necas gets to 80 or 90 points this season, he’s going to get paid big-time on his next deal. Whether that’s in Carolina or somewhere else.
Kevin Lankinen, Vancouver Canucks
Where would the Canucks be right now without Kevin Lankinen?
It’s a fair question to ask. Thatcher Demko is still working his way back from injury and it’s unclear when he’ll return to the crease or what that might look like. Arturs Silovs, who became a bit of a fan favourite after stabilizing the Vancouver crease in the playoffs last year, has looked overmatched for much of 2024-25. He was supposed to get the first crack at things with Demko out, but Silovs hasn’t won yet and sports a save percentage below .800.
This has all led to Lankinen stumbling into the starting job almost by default, after only putting pen to paper on a deal in late September that is paying him just $875K. The Canucks have found incredible value with Lankinen, who boasts a 7-0-2 record with a sparkling .923 save percentage. Lankinen also has quality starts in every game but two this year. Not bad for a 29-year-old career backup playing on his third team in four years.
Vancouver needed Lankinen’s emergence for other reasons than just uncertainty around its crease. Elias Pettersson has only managed five points in 12 games and is still trying to get going. Big summer signing Jake DeBrusk also started slow, taking until game 10 to score his first goal of the season. This has all led to the Canucks being less potent offensively than they were a year ago. In 2023-24, Vancouver ranked sixth in the NHL in goals for per game, but this season they’ve dropped all the way down to 15th. The Canucks power play is down as well from just outside the top 10 a year ago to 22nd right now.
They’re thinner on defence as well. Veterans Ian Cole and Nikita Zadorov have departed, leaving Vincent Desharnais and Erik Brannstrom to try and hold down the third pair. Cole and Zadorov together have nearly 1,500 games of NHL experience, compared to Desharnais and Brannstrom, who haven’t even hit 400 combined. The Canucks have needed to be stingier when it comes to allowing goals and Lankinen is one of the biggest reasons they’ve still managed to get off to a 7-2-3 start.
Anthony Stolarz might be the best free-agent goalie signing from the summer, but Lankinen isn’t too far behind.