Prior to their 6-2 loss against Columbus Tuesday night, the Toronto Maple Leafs had done what felt impossible at the conclusion of the 2023-24 season: They had made people feel like this team was different despite still being constructed around a core of Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, William Nylander and John Tavares (and we’ll throw Morgan Rielly in there too).
That’s not just my opinion – we’ve had numerous guests on Real Kyper and Bourne including Garry Galley and Jody Shelley this week who endorsed the same view. Through only six games, the Leafs gave up scant chances except when their leads grew to three and four goals, the new additions of Chris Tanev and Oliver Ekman-Larsson (and even Steven Lorentz) had been great, and their goaltending had been stellar.
After the seventh game, whiplash hit. Same old Leafs?
Like most things, it’s probably a little from column A (they’re different) and a little from column B (but not entirely).
First let’s take a look at a few things that seem to have legitimately changed for this team compared to the previous year, and we’ll follow that up with some things that are the same.
They are playing a simpler style at 5-on-5
The Leafs have always been pretty good at recovering dumped-in pucks, but I’d argue that’s been because they’re dangerous off the rush, so teams hold the line tighter and make it easier for Toronto to recover their dump-ins. But this season they’ve moved up into the top 10 (from 12th to seventh) in “dump in percentage,” as they get the puck deep on about 57 per cent of their rushes.
Last year they won those pucks back at the second-highest rate in the league (almost 23 per cent), and this year they’re right back around there (fourth), but with a higher recovery rate of almost 25 per cent.
They dump it in more, they win it back a bit more, and it translates to playing at the right end of the rink.
They’ve become an elite breakout team
People notice Tanev blocking shots, but I’m not sure they see how often he goes back on a contested puck and then get it heading up ice the other way without incident. Save for his bad night against Columbus, Ekman-Larsson has been elite in this way, too.
The Leafs are the second-best team in the league when it comes to defensive zone exits that are followed by a successful play (like a clean pass, or a zone entry, or a dump-in, etc.), and they’ve been the best team in the league in carry-out exits that are followed by a successful play.
Last year they were 10th in exits that were followed by successful plays, and 13th in the carry-out department.
That’s part of what’s made the Leafs feel more solid this season, up until peeing down their collective leg in Columbus. They’ve transported the puck from zone to zone well, and without much incident.
They take a lot more penalties this season
In 2023-24, the Leafs had the 23rd-best penalty kill in the league at 76.9 per cent.
That’s bad.
So far this season, the Leafs have had the sixth-best PK in the league, at 86.7 per cent.
That’s good.
But it will be fully negated if they continue to play as undisciplined as they have so far. Maybe that’s been about trying to impress a new “tough guy” coach?
Last season 18 teams took more minor penalties than the Leafs. Their penalty differential shook out at essentially a wash at minus-2 over 82 games.
So far this season they’ve taken the third-most minor penalties in the league (32), and they’re third-worst in penalty differential, already a minus-7 through seven games. Spotting your opponents an extra power play a game starts some bad math. Last season the Anaheim Ducks were minus-94 in this category and I gotta tell ya: it’s not great for the overall winning percentage.
Maybe you view this as a good thing. If these Leafs play more physical and take more penalties while simultaneously killing more of them off, that would be a good “culture shift” into a more playoff-style team.
Unfortunately, I see an awful lot of one-off penalties that are less “different culture” and more “dumb and/or lazy.” They’ll have to clean that up.
They’re getting saves
Toronto’s crease is still an absolute mystery. Joseph Woll went into the season as “the guy” because he’s younger and carries the bigger contract, but he’s been MIA with some serious case of “tightness.” Anthony Stolarz looks like Earth’s Best Goalie, but it remains to be seen if he can be this good with a starter’s workload. Dennis Hildeby had his second start against Columbus, and it didn’t go so great.
And yet, last season the Leafs were 24th in all-strengths save percentage (.894), and in 2024-25 they’re eighth (.909) which could earn them a lot of additional standings points, if sustained.
The team has changed stylistically, their back-end seems better, and they’ve found good competition up front that’s led to some quality wins. With goaltending, you could say they’ve legitimately got a different makeup.
So, how much does one absolute stinker in a back-to-back rein in the excitement?
That answer is “certainly some.” Yes, Hildeby was bad, but at the heart of the Leafs’ failings from previous years was a consistent theme: They weren’t able to push through and score against good teams (despite getting chances), and their big money men hadn’t exactly established themselves as great leaders so far.
For the second point, I’d exhibit the team’s record against lesser teams in the past, and say that when the Leafs have had the chance to take a night off, they’ve not put forth their best foot.
Looking back over the past week, they came up against a good Rangers team and couldn’t quite score (despite getting chances), and then, after one of their most praise-worthy wins in years against Tampa Bay, had the chance to relax against Columbus, and did exactly that.
Most disappointing was the play of Matthews and Marner in that game.
Here, down 3-0 on the road, Matthews “dives in” at a puck rather than pulling out to defend, stumbles, and gets beat back up ice. Meanwhile, check how many strides Marner (middle of the ice) takes to negate a potential odd-man rush against while Columbus players race up ice towards the Leafs net:
Neither Matthews nor Marner skates hard enough back to defend on this play.
Now down 5-1, the next clip starts with Marner taking a passive swipe at a puck, then he curls to the offensive side of the pile and just hopes things work out. Matthews is F3 and pulls back out, but then gets staring at the puck (Matthew Knies does too) as the puck enters the Leafs’ zone, allowing room for a second wave to get a pass and shot.
These are Toronto’s leaders not just in spirit or fame, but in the most literal sense at this point. They wear the letters and have been around the team the longest, and they set a poor example for their team as the game started to get away from them.
No single night in the NHL is worth over-reacting to when you’ve got the big sample size right there waiting. Good teams lose bad games sometimes — and on the same night the Boston Bruins and Florida Panthers both lost by four goals as well.
But neither of those teams was playing Columbus, and neither is dealing with substantial lingering questions about their core’s ability to change their behaviours from previous seasons. In Toronto, the question “will a new coach wipe away those player defects” got some early results that weren’t great.
In all, I do see the Leafs as a different team this season, and in many positive ways. For a team that just lost in overtime of Game 7 in the first round, maybe that’s enough to go deeper this time. But while questions remain about the core’s ability to change along with the cast around them, nights like Tuesday were a concerning reminder that people can only change so much.
The question remains: is being just a little bit different, and a little bit better, enough to take the Leafs a whole lot longer into the spring?