When analyzing not just the quality of a team, but its likelihood of playoff success, I have to remind myself that a shift in thinking is required. Because after a year of talking about the Maple Leafs during the first hour of our radio program, I can get used to the idea of an “average” statistic falling somewhere in the 10-20 range of league-wide ranks.
For example, when it comes to shots on net that come from the slot (against), the Leafs are 13th in the NHL – which is good, better than 19 teams – allowing 12.4 per game.
But when you toggle that thinking to the playoffs, where there’s only 16 teams, suddenly if you’re 13th in a category you’re at best middle of the pack (assuming some non-playoff teams are ahead of you) and at worst near the bottom. In today’s reality, the Leafs would be entering playoffs 11th of 16 teams in that particular category.
That’s a random statistical example, but the point is that league-wide “good” isn’t the same as being better than other playoff teams, which is all that matters in forecasting the coming months.
What becomes important is not how a team ran up numbers against the non-factor teams, but its ability to beat those other good teams.
I wanted to dive in on our four Canadian playoff-bound teams and see which ones have fared best in racking up points against the types of teams they’re likely to play in the playoffs.
I bucketed the teams into groups of five, because what’s interesting to me is how these teams fare against different levels of playoff opponents (and I also wanted to separate the bottom feeders to see if anyone made all their hay there).
EDMONTON OILERS
Up first is the team that inspired this analysis, thanks to a board shown on Sportsnet this week. The Oilers, who are among the league’s strangest teams (in that they can be the best team in the league on any given night, but then have weird lapses of play like their month of October), have struggled against very good teams.
Edmonton vs.:
Top 5: 4-7-1
6-10: 3-3-2
11-15: 7-6-1
16-27: 21-6-1
Bottom 5: 10-2-0
Top 15: 14-16-4
The Oilers are not the same team from the start of the season, yet they still carry with them the stats from that time so it’s tough to know what to make of this exactly. But you would think that a team with a ton of raw talent would expose the more under-talented teams even if they played imperfectly some nights, and that a good team could at least slow down Connor McDavid and Co., while taking better advantage of an Oilers D-corps that can make mistakes.
Staring that record in the face, and Vegas as a possible first round matchup, makes for an ominous forecast. That said: I’d never bet against prime McDavid and Leon Draisaitl.
TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS
The Leafs have come out on the better side of their “top 15” matchups more often than not, but it is worth noting that the success they’ve had there has mostly not been against the very best teams — the kind of which they’re likely to face in the first round.
The Panthers are struggling right now, but do expect Aaron Ekblad and Carter Verhaeghe back for Game 1 of the playoffs. Florida is probably straddling the “Top 5” and “6-10” categories.
Toronto vs.:
Top 5: 5-6-3
6-10: 6-3-0
11-15: 7-3-1
16-27: 18-10-2
Bottom 5: 7-1-3
Top 15: 18-12-4
The Leafs can have sleepy nights against teams in the 16-27 range, so these numbers check out. And while their record against bottom-feeding teams is still good, those seven wins compared to the other Canadian teams means that in four of 11 games Toronto let bad teams hang around. (They’ve also had fewer opportunities against bottom-feeders given the schedule and the glut of bad teams in the West.)
VANCOUVER CANUCKS
Vancouver might be Canada’s brightest hope, if you believe there’s any meaning to having a good record against good teams.
The Canucks are 12-6-3 against the 10 best teams in the league, which is good because the top of the Western Conference is a murderer’s row of contenders, and they’re going to need to be able to hang with those teams. (They’ll also need Thatcher Demko back doing his thing.)
Vancouver vs.:
Top 5: 5-2-2
6-10: 7-4-1
11-15: 7-6-1
16-27: 16-8-3
Bottom 5: 12-1-1
Top 15: 19-12-4
Like the Leafs, the Canucks are just so-so against the middle, but they’re talented enough to beat the league’s very best.
WINNIPEG JETS
The Jets are very, very good, unless they’re playing against non-playoff teams who aren’t in the bottom five, apparently.
Winnipeg vs.:
Top 5: 5-5-1
6-10: 5-2-2
11-15: 8-6-0
16-27: 13-10-2
Bottom 5: 14-1-1
Top 15: 18-13-3
In 25 games against teams ranked 16th-27th in the league, the Jets won just 13 times. If they were even a little better against pretty humdrum opponents they could’ve finished first in the Central.
In all, these numbers say the Oilers may be in a bit of trouble, and the Canucks may be better built for the playoffs than we would’ve guessed.
We’re two weeks away from the league chopping off 16 teams of dead wood, leaving just the best of the best. Four Canadian teams all have a chance to be this year’s champion, but they won’t get there without weathering the toughest storms against the league’s best teams.