Don’t hold your breath if you’re hoping the Winnipeg Jets will break up their top forward line of Kyle Connor, Mark Scheifele and Gabriel Vilardi.
Ahead of the Jets’ pre-season game against the Edmonton Oilers on Wednesday — where the top line was united — coach Scott Arniel stressed the importance of getting his veteran players to play alongside those they’ll be playing with throughout the season. In the 6-1 win that night, Winnipeg iced a roster that featured several lines and defence pairings that could stay intact once the regular season starts, including that top line.
Last season, we saw Rick Bowness deploy Connor, Scheifele and Vilardi together as the team’s top line, whenever possible. On paper, it made sense.
Connor is a shifty sniper who uses his edge work and stick-handling abilities to create time and space. Scheifele is a cerebral pass-first centre who possesses puck protection abilities, identifies and weaponizes open passing lanes and reads off Connor well — the two have remained largely intact since the Connor became a full-time NHLer seven years ago. And then there’s Vilardi, a hulking 6-foot-3 power forward with impeccable puck protection ability, soft hands around the net and strong in 1-on-1 battles along the wall. Together, the trio possess the puck well in the offensive zone.
“One thing about them is that they’ve got chemistry,” Arniel said after Wednesday’s game. “When they have the puck, they’re hard to get it away from. They read off each other really well.”
That’s true. But their results last season weren’t pretty.
According to Moneypuck.com, the Connor-Scheifele-Vilardi line posted a 35.3 expected goals-for percentage last year — ranking them 115th out of 116 lines that played at least 150 minutes together. Among that same cohort, the line ranked dead last in expected goals against per 60 minutes (3.77). As much as this line can, at times, run a clinic in the offensive zone, it’s not enough to compensate for what they give up the other way. During the playoffs last season, Connor-Scheifele-Vilardi posted the third most expected goals-for per 60 minutes (3.75), yet they controlled less than 50 per cent of the expected goals for share (49.2 xGF%).
Analytics have their limitations, of course, but those results are jarring when you consider how well the trio of Scheifele, Vilardi and Nikolaj Ehlers fared when Connor missed five weeks around the midway point of the year.
In 207.8 minutes together, Ehlers-Scheifele Vilardi posted a 57.1 expected goals-for percentage and the 11th-highest expected goals-for per 60 minutes of any line that played at least 150 minutes together (3.58).
When asked if he’d give a test-drive of the Ehlers-Scheifele-Vilardi combo, Arniel said it might be something we see down the road, although it won’t be on Friday in the team’s next pre-season game because the coach wants newly signed Cole Perfetti and Ehlers to get some reps together. Arniel also mentioned earlier in the day that he wanted to see those two together with either Brad Lambert or Vladislav Namestnikov, which many anticipate will come together as the team’s second line.
In Arniel’s defence, you can attribute some of the rough patches the Connor-Scheifele-Vilardi line had to all the stops-and-starts they went through, with the wingers missing time to injury. But the question becomes, how long will the Jets be stubborn with this experiment, even if this line continues to get shelled in defensively like they did last season?
New Look Power Play
The Jets’ first-unit power play is about to get a much-needed facelift.
A big reason why Winnipeg ranked 22nd in power play percentage last season (18.8%) was that they were incredibly passive on the man advantage, ranking 28th in power play scoring chances for per 60 (51.26), according to NaturalStatTrick.com.
They’re looking to unlock more of a shoot-first mentality with a 1-3-1 power play set up that’ll feature Ehlers in the bumper role. It’s an interesting promotion for a player who, somewhat inexplicably, was relegated to the team’s second unit for most of Bowness’ tenure.
“The most important player on your power play is your bumper,” Arniel said after Tuesday’s practice, which focused primarily on special teams work. “You go look at (Sam) Reinhart, you look at (Sebastian) Aho, (T.J. Oshie). You just look at power plays that have success. But you gotta work. (Ehlers) has quickness to get there. He also has a quick release.”
While we don’t want to put too much stock into an exhibition game against an Edmonton team that iced predominantly minor leaguers, there’s a lot to like about the new configuration. In this setup, opposing penalty kills won’t be able to just close off Connor on the right flank. There are multiple shooting options and while Scheifele likes to distribute on the power play, he’s still got a quick release of his own, should he get a puck in his wheelhouse.
OTHER OBSERVATIONS
• Speaking of Ehlers, don’t expect to hear much from him on the status of his pending unrestricted free agency. Sportsnet.ca asked him on Tuesday if he would be willing to negotiate a contract extension mid-season, or if he’ll be shelving those conversations until after the season as many in his situation opt to do.
“I’ve answered this question multiple times. Again, you guys want to get your answers. I don’t have an answer for you. Sorry,” Ehlers said.
• Neal Pionk recorded one goal and four points Wednesday night. The 29-year-old has become a bit of a whipping boy among Jets fans and while there’s no doubt he had a down year last season, Arniel reminded media members of the extenuating circumstances Pionk was dealing with. Adam Johnson, who tragically died in an on-ice incident during an EIHL game last year, was Pionk’s best friend.
“It hit him a little harder than people thought,” Arniel said. “He had a summer where he got to spend a lot of time with the Johnson family. His wife. He’s now in a better place.”
• The power play isn’t the only special teams unit set to get some more firepower. Arniel confirmed on Tuesday that Scheifele and Connor will be featured on the penalty kill this season. Odds are they’ll be deployed on the second unit — as they were on Wednesday — for the final 20-30 seconds.
The thinking, Arniel explained, was that Scheifele could ease the face-off burden that Adam Lowry typically shoulders in 4-on-5 situations. Arniel mentioned that they also want to be a bit more aggressive on the penalty kill, which Connor could certainly help with. Arniel said Ehlers may even get some penalty kill reps, too.
“The one thing about top-end skill guys, they have great instincts of where the next play is going and they have a tendency to jump those plays,” Arniel explained.
• Colby Barlow made his pre-season debut for the Jets last Saturday. While he scored a goal in garbage time, the 2023 first-round pick (18th overall) appeared to struggle with the pace of the game. He frequently lost out on puck races and had a hard time executing plays at top speed.
Arniel mentioned that there could have been some nerves there, given that it was his first exhibition NHL game — which is certainly true — but Barlow didn’t shy away from the fact that he’s got work to do.
“I think a lot of it is just about improving my endurance,” Barlow said after Tuesday’s practice. “It’s all about being able to go 110 per cent for the entire game rather than just [trailing] off in the third period.”