Few, if any, teams in the NHL will be more fascinating to monitor this season than the Winnipeg Jets. Note the word choice of “monitor” there versus “watch.” It’s not that the Jets figure to be unwatchable by any means. In fact, there are still very good players dotted throughout this lineup. It’s just that the real drama figures to play out away from the ice, as the futures of two pending UFAs — Mark Scheifele and Connor Hellebuyck — come into focus.
Winnipeg snatched the final playoff berth in the Western Conference last year and was scolded by coach Rick Bowness heading out the door for its uninspired showing during a five-game, first-round loss to the eventual Stanley Cup champion Vegas Golden Knights.
The off-season brought about an end to a couple of lingering subplots, as centre Pierre-Luc Dubois — long destined for a ticket out of town — was traded to the Los Angeles Kings, while Blake Wheeler — stripped of his captaincy at last season’s training camp — was bought out by the team.
Truthfully, the grumbling and snipping surrounding this squad can sometimes obscure the fact there’s still a playoff-worthy roster representing this hockey-crazed city. Of course, if the team is tracking something other than a post-season appearance three months into the season, the off-ice noise is only going to get louder.
2022-23 regular season record: 46-33-3, 95 points
2023-23 season finish: 4th in the Central Division, eliminated 4-1 in Round 1
Additions: Gabriel Vilardi, Alex Iafallo, Rasmus Kupari, Laurent Brossoit
Subtractions: Pierre-Luc Dubois, Blake Wheeler, Saku Maenalanen, Kevin Stenlund, Sam Gagner, Karson Kuhlman, David Rittich
Three Storylines To Watch
1. The big-time pending UFAs
There’s just nowhere else we can start.
To be clear, neither Hellebuyck nor Scheifele have closed the door on remaining with Winnipeg long-term. And while many fans around the league have been in a rush to trade both guys, Jets GM Kevin Cheveldayoff is legendarily patient when it comes to these matters. (And, sadly for Winnipeg, these situations are not unfamiliar territory.)
Still, it’s just such a tough spot for the team because we’re talking about a No. 1 centre who scored 42 goals last year and a No. 1 goalie who has a Vezina Trophy on his shelf, plus three other top-four finishes in his career. The idea of watching even one of those guys walk out the door for nothing — especially for a city that can’t plug big holes with its own free-agent signings — is a lot to stomach.
The best-case scenario for Winnipeg is the team gets off to a great start and two 30-year-old players who’ve never worn another NHL sweater believe they can spend the back half of their careers chasing titles in Manitoba.
But, again, that’s the rosiest view of things. The more realistic questions probably centre around what the breaking point would be for Cheveldayoff before he looks at the March 8 trade deadline and figures out what he can extract for two premium assets skating for a team that, in all likelihood, will be life and death to make the second season.
2. How will the new guys fit in?
We’ve spent so much time speculating about the next Winnipeg trade that it’s easy to forget the pretty great one — especially given the circumstances — Cheveldayoff made when he got Gabe Vilardi, Alex Iafallo and Rasmus Kupari back from L.A. in the Dubois swap.
Vilardi, in particular, will be interesting to watch. He just turned 24 in August, a few weeks after he inked a two-year pact with Winnipeg. Recall, Vilardi stormed out of the gate last year with 10 goals in his first 15 games with the Kings before hitting the wall. Can he make that pace — OK, maybe not that pace, but, say, a 30-goal clip — stand up for an entire season while skating on a top line?
Iafallo has shown he’s always good for 15-plus goals, so the 29-year-old American will be a nice middle-six addition. Kupari, meanwhile, was a first-rounder in 2019 and brings a big, right-shot body to the middle of the fourth line.
3. Will Josh Morrissey remain an elite point-producing D-man?
Buried under headlines about potential trades, stripped captaincies and Bowness blasting the team after its last game was the fact Josh Morrissey exploded into the top tier of point-producing defencemen last season during his age-27 campaign.
The Calgarian notched 76 points, more than double his previous career best of 37 (established one year prior). That earned Morrissey a fifth-place finish in Norris Trophy voting.
Adam Lowry was named captain of the team prior to this season, but it’s hard not to see Morrissey as the beating heart of this club. He’s a Western Canadian boy inked to a deal that keeps him in Winnipeg through 2027-28.
And while his numbers exploded last season, Morrissey was always viewed as a cerebral, efficient top-four blue-liner. Even if he doesn’t score at nearly a point-per-game pace, it’s easy to believe he’s entered a new phase of his career where 60 points are in play each season.
Still, he’s got to go out there and do it.
The season will be a success if …
The most optimistic Jets fan would likely say if Scheifele and Hellebuyck ink in-season deals. A more measured observer might say the real victory would be seeing a clear path to life beyond those two players, given the very legit possibility neither will be here next fall.
Hard as it would be to say goodbye to those guys, the blow would be softened by seeing Vilardi look like a consistent top-six scoring threat and sophomore Cole Perfetti — the 10th overall pick in 2020 — taking a meaningful step toward being a play-driving NHL centre. Even at lower levels, Winnipeg backers should keep close tabs on AHL rookie Chaz Lucius and 2023 first-rounder Colby Barlow. If Lucius shines with the Manitoba Moose and Barlow is a stud for Canada at the World Junior Championship, it gets that much easier to envision life after Scheifele.
Player Who Could Surprise: Rasmus Kupari
Full disclosure, we had a full paragraph here on the potential for defenceman Ville Heinola to establish himself this season. Unfortunately, the young Finn sustained a knee injury in Winnipeg’s final pre-season game.
One section prior we dropped names like Lucius and Barlow when discussing the Jets’ future at forward, but don’t sleep on Kupari. The 22-year-old has yet to average 12 minutes per night in two NHL seasons and, despite limited minutes, recorded 1.4 points/60 minutes last year. He’s a first-round talent with size and room to grow on a team that might soon be auditioning its centres for larger roles.
Projected Opening Night Roster
Forwards
Kyle Connor-Mark Scheifele-Gabriel Vilardi
Nino Niederreiter-Cole Perfetti-Nik Ehlers
Alex Iafallo-Adam Lowry-Mason Appleton
Morgan Barron-Rasmus Kupari-Vlad Namestnikov
Defence
Josh Morrissey-Dylan DeMelo
Brenden Dillon-Neal Pionk
Dylan Samberg-Nate Schmidt
Goalies
Connor Hellebuyck
Laurent Brossoit