LAS VEGAS — Like a glass poured to the midpoint with water, there are two ways to look at the Toronto Maple Leafs‘ 4-3 start.
Optimists don’t blink.
They can point to the club’s ability to mount a winning record despite dealing with significant injuries to its intended No. 1 goaltender Matt Murray and its most seasoned pure defender Jake Muzzin.
They can scream, “Bad puck luck!” And they wouldn’t be wrong, what with 35-goal man Mitchell Marner and 60-goal MVP Auston Matthews finding the net just once each through the opening fortnight.
They can remind anyone within earshot to relax, that, hey, it’s early. That the regular season no longer matters much in these parts. Provided this is a well-oiled machine by April, they’ll be just fine. (They might also conveniently ignore that the Maple Leafs currently sit ninth, by points percentage, in the Eastern Conference, despite a relatively soft opening schedule.)
They can also rejoice that this Ilya Samsonov kid looks to be worth every penny of his $1.8-million flyer.
Pessimists, of course, see all of the usual warts.
Inconsistent efforts against weaker-on-paper teams. A penchant for unnecessary penalties. Lack of killer instinct and goaltending depth. Some slow starts. Bouts of sloppy execution. Plus a few off-season signings that were supposed to be moneypuck gems but, so far, have been healthy or unhealthy scratches.
The naysayers may also take two steps back and realize that the cavern between the Atlantic Division’s haves and have-nots has shrunk, with the Detroit Red Wings, Ottawa Senators and Buffalo Sabres all jumping out to fine starts.
What both sides should be able to agree on is, in the early going here, the Maple Leafs are not delivering on their identity.
Ice time, zone starts, and salary allocation are all geared toward Toronto running through the league like an offensive juggernaut. Simply put, they aren’t built to win 1-0 or 2-1 games.
Look at the dismal production drop-off from last season to this:
What’s more disturbing is the Leafs’ goal-scoring is drying up despite an upward trend in red lamps leaguewide.
Goals are up to 3.22 per game (from 3.14), and the average team save percentage is down to .903 (from .907).
Shouldn’t an uptick in goals play to Toronto’s strengths?
The greatest issue should be one that time solves.
Matthews and Marner, one of the sport’s most dangerous duos, are generating looks without the rewards.
“Auston had 13 shot attempts or something crazy,” head coach Sheldon Keefe pointed out Saturday in Winnipeg. “You can tell he is right there and ready to break out.”
The coach echoed his sentiments Monday night in Las Vegas, albeit with more frustration: “He is not gonna come as close to scoring without actually scoring than he did tonight. It’s right there.”
Matthews has confessed to frustration. Heck, this is a guy who’s accustomed to sniping clean and often. His lone goal was a tip.
Matthews’ career shooting percentage is 16.1. This season it has plummeted to a silly 3.0.
“I just need one to go in,” Matthews said. “I think that’s the biggest thing is, you get one to go in and you just kinda relax a little bit.”
Marner denied similar irritation: “No. Not at all. No. Sometimes that happens.”
The winger considers strategy, whether the Maple Leafs’ skill players should be content to chip-and-chase or try to attack the zone with possession.
“You want to try and walk through five guys, it’s not going to work every time. So, I think that’s something we’ve talked about,” Marner said. “Especially our lineup, I think people are going to try and really hold the blue lines tight on us. Try and force us into tight situations. And we’re not afraid to dump it in and try and get it back.”
Matthews thinks there are times to not rely so much on the forecheck.
“At the same time, we can kind of work through the neutral zone a little bit better and try to create some cleaner entries instead of having to dump the puck and chase it all the time,” he said.
There’s a thin line there, but Toronto’s top six are too talented to not figure it out.
More concerning is the lack of depth scoring.
The only Leaf outside the top six with more than one goal is defensive specialist David Kämpf.
Justin Holl is the only D-man with a strike.
Pierre Engvall was given a pay bump and expected to pick up some of the slack once Ilya Mikheyev and his 21 goals moved to Vancouver. He has more healthy scratches (one) than he has points.
Keefe was bullish on his forwards during training camp, dubbing it the greatest depth of talent of his tenure, and believing he had three lines that could score.
Seven games in, that bar has been lowered.
Today, the coach says he simply wants his bottom six to win shifts, provide energy, and cash in on the odd opportunity.
“It wouldn’t be fair to expect them every single game to a line that’s going to be counted on for offence,” Keefe said. “They’re complementary offensive players. But they do a lot for our team defensively in terms of matchups, penalty killing, and spot duty on the second-unit power play.
“When Engvall finds his game and gets going, I think that that’s going to really help that line. You’d like to see that.”
Of course, because that would signal a return to identity, a climb back to a team that can pummel you with rushes and rubber, not the one grinding out one-goal victories and trying to tread water.
For the glass-half-full set, there is good news.
The Maple Leafs head to California for a three-game tour against teams that are just as flawed.
Starting in sad-sack San Jose Thursday, it’s a fine opportunity to find their legs and turn that pesky puck luck.
“Right now, it’s not going in. But we just want to keep playing, keep working hard and keep generating those chances,” Matthews said. “Because eventually, they will.”