The only thing unsurprising about the Toronto Maple Leafs these days is that they will find a new way to surprise you, at least once a week. A 1-0 shutout win where Ilya Samsonov was unbelievable, lemme tell ya, I did not see that coming.
Below are a few things that are on my mind after watching the Leafs take two points against a shorthanded version of Winnipeg, one of the NHL’s best teams.
Nick Robertson and Auston Matthews are both shooters, but maybe…
I do analysis and opinion, and that sometimes involves throwing a few ideas at the wall and seeing what sticks (which is the same as coaching, for what it’s worth). One of those things I wonder about is if Auston Matthews and Nick Robertson could work together for a stretch of the regular season here.
I don’t see it working as a solution in the playoffs, when checking gets super tight (unless it works exceptionally well), but this Leafs team is dying for depth goals right now. Lordy, look at this tweet from my man Papetti:
Absolutely nobody is producing for the Leafs up front outside the big four, and with Tavares lagging we’re currently talking about the big three. Still, zooming out on the four of them, here’s a look at their portion of Toronto’s overall goals scored. Check out the rising percentage on the right.
It’s just way too much pressure on far too few humans.
Robertson seems like one of the few players who can shoot the puck in the net when given a clean look. And with that, it almost seems as though Matthews has a “game recognize game” mentality when on the ice with the smaller sniper, as he actually passes Robertson the puck. (Which genuinely makes me wonder if we’d see him pass more if he had more belief in the shot of the guys he typically skates with.)
In Robertson’s entire NHL career, he has been on the ice for 2:29 of overtime action, which is three shifts that have ended in three goals (two for, one against).
He is High Event, to say the least. And, lately, the Leafs could use a few more events out there.
Here’s Robertson and Matthews doing a bit more passing to each other than we’re accustomed to either doing:
Wednesday night Robertson played 17:08, the most ice time he’s had in a game this season by 2:14. That previous high of 14:54 was also nearly two minutes more than his next-highest ice time in a game. Robertson has four goals and an assist over the past seven games he’s dressed.
The Leafs are absolutely dying for someone to put together a run of decent offensive shifts on Matthews’ wing (Knies hasn’t, Bertuzzi hasn’t, Holmberg hasn’t). This would let him play in the O-zone more and utilize Mitch Marner’s passing. At the very least they’re trying to juice the kid’s trade value (if not discover a guy they can functionally use). It’s the regular season.
Would it be the worst thing to block off three-to-five games for Robertson to skate with Matthews and Marner and just see?
Just throwing things at the wall here.
The 2-on-0 against
I’m seeing some fans go in on Matthews and Marner for changing on the play that led to a shorthanded 2-on-0 against, and they’re certainly not fully absolved from criticism below. They took up about 1:45 of the Leafs’ power play (or “two ******* minutes” as Keefe screamed at them on the bench), and did not consider the defensive aspect of the game towards the end for a single second.
But…
First off, they are in the limelight because Conor Timmins got sucked towards the puck like it was a 1×3 inch black hole.
Timmins was fresh and on the ice for Morgan Rielly — the only defenceman on the ice — when the puck went in deep and William Nylander pursued a forecheck.
Nylander sealed off one of the walls, which is fine. The D is facing around behind the net on his forehand, so F2 went behind, which you don’t love at even strength but in this case it’s a good chance to take away the other wall and keep the puck in. So let me ask you, at the far left of this screenshot, why is Timmins creeping further down towards the puck? Again, he’s the only defenceman on the ice. Does he think he should be forechecking?
Watch as he creeps further down in the next shot, before considerately knocking down the attempted icing from the Jets. Marner, now with three teammates visibly in front of him, is 1:39 into his shift, and still inexplicably creeping forward too.
While this was happening, Matthews was going for a change on a dumped puck in the offensive zone, which is kinda exactly when they tell you to change. So I’m also not going to say Matthews and Marner are in the same boat of guilt with “they went for a change” here. Matthews’ is pretty legit, and there’s a leg over the boards coming on for him already.
Now, Marner should probably get on his horse back at this point, but maybe he’s just so tired and he recognizes their fresh teammate coming on is going to beat him back to their net to help anyway?
Either way there’s no reason Timmins shouldn’t be defending this 2-on-1. Or, if he hadn’t been in no-man’s-land up ice, heading back to retrieve a Jets iced puck as Winnipeg’s PK guys would inevitably change.
Ilya Samsonov
Here’s a piece of optimism wrapped in some cynicism: If this iteration of the Toronto Maple Leafs is going to go on a playoff run, they’re probably going to need a stretch of white hot goaltending. While I don’t think I could ever get to the point where I would trust Ilya Samsonov as a starting goalie, if in fact he were to be the back up, I think you’d have to like the fact that he’s a talented guy capable of crazy good stretches of play.
And so the optimism is: his recent play has reminded me that he can be an elite goalie and steal games (when he isn’t sliding way out of his crease) and you could talk me into having him on the Leafs’ playoff roster. The cynicism is because I don’t believe average goaltending would be enough for this team, as currently constituted, to win a round. Samsonov can get hot, and if called upon as a backup you would need that. This was an encouraging first step (or second or third, based on recent starts) for him to stay not just in the NHL, but with the Leafs.
And finally…
More weird passing stats
I’ve written and talked before about how the Leafs’ O-zone passing is near the league’s basement, in terms of completion rate and successful touches. Stathletes has a crazy figure about the fall-off in passing from Matthews, Marner, and Rielly.
Last season to this season, here are their total completed passes per 60:
Matthews: 80.3/74.8 (-5.3)
Rielly: 101.9/87.9 (-13.0)
Marner: 84.0/70.4 (-13.6)
Nylander is the only key player who’s actually gone up (from 67.1 to 67.7).
I don’t even think those are individual issues so much as a reflection of a team that just has the puck far less often. The good news is, they have spent more time in the O-zone of late, so it’s possible these numbers will come around. It’s probably worth noting: in terms of expected goals (via Natural Stat Trick) the Leafs’ rolling averages have actually improved since Christmas:
On SportLogiq’s graph that shows expected goals for and against, the Leafs have been steadily creeping farther into the positive quadrant (great offensive creation, decent defensively).
There’s no doubt they’re in need of a little help to get back to being a legit Cup contender. But I still think there’s enough “good” here that Toronto is a group worth going in on, yet again.
Hold on to your butts.