There are five days remaining on the regular season NHL schedule and still we only have one series locked in.
So, while the Toronto Maple Leafs and Tampa Bay Lightning play out the string carefully, the other 14 playoff teams — and those on the bubble still mathematically alive — still have lots to play for. What they each meaningfully have in front of them is the focus of our playoff push today.
Once more, it’s imperative to remember what the tie-breakers are in each scenario (whether it’s for a wild-card spot or final seeding). The first tiebreaker is regulation wins (RW) the second is regulation and overtime wins (ROW), and the third is total wins (which include those in the shootout). If teams are still tied after that, their regular season head-to-head record comes into play.
There is still quite a bit to play for in the final five days, but things cold narrow substantially after Monday night. Here are the clinching scenarios ahead of tonight’s games, via the NHL:
• The Panthers will clinch a playoff berth if they defeat the Maple Leafs in regulation or overtime AND the Islanders lose to the Capitals in regulation. Florida cannot clinch today if they win in a shootout.
• The Hurricanes will clinch home ice in the first round (Metropolitan seed TBD) if they defeat the Senators in any fashion; OR if they get one point vs. the Senators AND the Rangers lose to the Sabres in any fashion; OR if the Rangers lose to the Sabres in regulation.
• The Devils (idle) will clinch home ice in the first round (Metropolitan seed TBD) if the Rangers lose to the Sabres in regulation.
• The Stars will clinch home ice in the first round (Central seed TBD) if they defeat the Red Wings in any fashion AND the Wild lose to the Blackhawks in regulation.
Get set for a great week of many meaningful games ahead of the Stanley Cup Playoffs, starting next Monday night.
Boston Bruins: Two points away from setting a new NHL record
On Sunday, Boston won its 63rd game of the regular season to set a new record, passing the 1995-96 Detroit Red Wings and 2018-19 Tampa Bay Lightning. Now there is one more piece of historical business to finish. The Bruins start the week with 131 points, which is one back of the all-time record set by the 1976-77 Montreal Canadiens.
Games this week: vs. Washington on Tuesday; at Montreal on Thursday
Carolina Hurricanes: Trying to hang on to Metro division title without being in control of the tie-breaker
The Hurricanes are trying to lock up their second Metro title in a row (they also won the realigned Central in 2021) and have been leading the way for a while now. But Carolina has not been able to pull away, 11-8-1 since the March 3 trade deadline, 16th in the league by points percentage. They enter the week with an advantage — Carolina has a game in hand of the chasing Devils and are one point ahead of them. The Devils, however, are one up on Carolina in the first tie-breaker (regulation wins) and two up in the second tie-breaker (regulation and overtime wins), so the Canes must stay ahead.
Games this week: at Ottawa on Monday; vs. Detroit on Tuesday; at Florida on Thursday
New Jersey Devils: Can they hang on to Round 1 home-ice, or track down the Canes in the Metro?
As the Devils try to chase down Carolina for first in the Metro, they also have an eye on the Rangers, who are just two points behind them. With all the things still on the table for New Jersey, the worst-case scenario is to drop their two remaining games, then go into the playoffs cold and on the road into Madison Square Garden. They are in control of the tie-breakers over both Carolina and New York, though, and with two non-playoff teams on the docket, the top seed in the division is still in play.
Games this week: vs. Buffalo on Tuesday; at Washington on Thursday
New York Rangers: Still have a chance to pass New Jersey for home-ice advantage
Over the past month the Rangers are 11-2-3 and one of the hottest teams in the league as they’ve made up seven and 10 points, respectively, on New Jersey and Carolina. There’s still an outside chance they could pass the Devils for Round 1 home ice advantage, though the division crown is probably out of reach. New York’s first game this week has implications for its opponent as well…
Games this week: vs. Buffalo on Monday; vs. Toronto on Thursday
Florida Panthers: Will they avoid being the fourth team to miss the playoffs a season after winning the Presidents’ Trophy?
Alex Lyon may be the most unexpected hero of the playoff push this season. Ever since jumping into the net for an ill Sergei Bobrovsky in late March, Lyon — a 30-year-old journeyman with 37 NHL games played across six seasons — has started and won all six games while posting a 1.50 GAA and .956 save percentage. He’ll go again Monday night as the Panthers try to hold off the Islanders, Penguins and Sabres in the final week. The 1993 Rangers, 2007 Sabres and 2015 Bruins are the only other teams in league history that missed the playoffs one year after winning the Presidents’ Trophy.
Games this week: vs. Toronto on Monday; vs. Carolina on Thursday
New York Islanders: Can they hold off the Penguins?
Tied with the Panthers in points, the Islanders start the week holding the second wild-card spot (Florida holds the tie-breaker). They also know that if they are going to miss the playoffs, the Penguins or Sabres have to outright pass them in points, since the Isles clinched the tie-breaker on each by way of regulation wins. After their offence went ice cold for a time, the Islanders have scored 10 times in their past two games, and don’t face the toughest schedule this week.
Games this week: at Washington on Monday; vs. Montreal on Wednesday
Pittsburgh Penguins: Will the league’s longest active playoff streak come to an end?
Think back to how much the NHL game had changed in 2005-06, the first season after the lockout when there was a major crackdown on obstruction and offence was prioritized in a way it hadn’t been in at least a decade. Now think how much the landscape has changed in the 17 years since, how many teams have risen and fallen and how many careers have come and gone. Now consider that 2005-06 was also the last time the Penguins missed the playoffs. The holders of the longest active playoff streak are in peril of ending that run this week, where they have to earn at least two points more than one of the two teams ahead of them. The good news is that Pittsburgh’s schedule isn’t the toughest — the bad news is they’ll need help from either the Panthers or Islanders to get in.
Games this week: vs. Chicago on Tuesday; at Columbus on Thursday
Buffalo Sabres: It’s a last-gasp playoff hope
Even though they won their games on Thursday and Saturday last week, Buffalo’s loss to the Panthers last Tuesday felt like the final nail in their playoff hopes. The Sabres have two more games remaining than the three teams in front of them, so they have the busiest schedule. They also have the most work to do, and require the most help from those around them. If the Sabres were to win each of their final four games this week, they’ll still be eliminated with one win each from the Panthers and Islanders. There are only two games on the schedule Friday and it would be great if Buffalo’s match that night still held meaning.
Games this week: at NY Rangers on Monday; at New Jersey Tuesday; vs. Ottawa on Thursday; at Columbus on Friday
Colorado Avalanche: Trying to clinch second straight Central Division crown and enter playoffs as league’s best post-trade deadline team
After winning the realigned West Division in 2021, the Avs returned to claim the Central last season and miraculously can repeat it even after being 11 points off the pace on Jan. 1. Gabriel Landeskog has missed the whole season and now Cale Makar is on the sidelines indefinitely, so we’ll see what kind of shape the team is in come Game 1. But, despite that, the Avs are 15-4-1 since the March 3 trade deadline and tied with Edmonton for the most points in that span. Last year’s champs started their 2022 playoff run after winning just one of their last seven-regular season games, but the story this year is much different — Colorado starts this week on a five-game winning streak.
Games this week: vs. Edmonton on Tuesday; vs. Winnipeg on Thursday; at Nashville on Friday
Dallas Stars: Can they make up just two points on Colorado to overtake the defending champs?
Two points back of the Avs and starting the week on a three-game winning streak, the Stars may be able to clinch the division through a tie-breaker. They are ahead of Colorado by two regulation wins (the first tie-breaker) so simply winning one more game than the Avs in their final three would be enough for Dallas to claim its first division title since 2015-16.
Games this week: at Detroit Monday; at St. Louis on Wednesday; vs. St. Louis on Thursday
Minnesota Wild: Home-ice advantage and spoiler in the wild-card race
After a strong March, the Wild lost three games in a row last week (one in the shootout), which was just enough to knock them off the pace and make their first division title since 2008 unlikely. The Wild will lose a tie-breaker to Colorado (by ROW) and likely would lose one to Dallas as well so they’d have to outright pass either to even claim home-ice advantage in Round 1. And as they fight for positioning, the Wild also could be a factor in the West’s wild-card race this week, as they’ll face two of the three teams in the running.
Games this week: at Chicago on Monday; vs. Winnipeg on Tuesday; at Nashville on Thursday
Vegas Golden Knights: Can they clinch their third Pacific Division title in six seasons?
After whiffing on the playoffs last season, the Golden Knights can clinch the top of the Pacific again this season, which is much more in line with the expectations for this team. They have two games remaining this week, both against Seattle, and what’s interesting is that if Vegas loses either and slips back behind Edmonton into second place, they could wind up doing the Kraken a huge favour and then face them in Round 1.
Games this week: vs. Seattle on Tuesday; at Seattle on Thursday
Edmonton Oilers: Chance for first division title since 1987 and Connor McDavid’s chance at history
Always a bridesmaid … finally the bride? The Oilers have been a regular season division runner-up three years in a row, and four times in the past six years. They have not claimed a regular season title since Wayne Gretzky was in his prime. Now, with Connor McDavid in his prime and seeking to put up a 156-point total no one other than Gretzky and Mario Lemieux has done before (he needs just five more!) these Oilers are shaping up to be a handful come playoff time. They have eight more regulation wins than the Golden Knights, so have clinched that tie-breaker, and would prefer to position themselves to play the winners of the wild-card snail race. A Pacific Division title likely also means the first seed in the Western Conference, and home-ice advantage for at least three rounds.
Games this week: at Colorado on Tuesday; vs. San Jose on Thursday
Los Angeles Kings: Trying to hold off the Kraken and not enter the playoffs on a cold streak
On April 3, the Kings were second in the Pacific, one point out of first, 7-2-1 in their past 10, but faced a tough week on the schedule against Edmonton, Vegas and Colorado. Well, they lost each of those games in regulation scoring just six total goals, and now could fall all the way back into the wild card with another bad week. Los Angeles would lose any tie-breaker to Seattle (by way of ROW at least), so though it’s a soft schedule ahead, there’s a chance that even winning out isn’t enough to hang on to third in the Pacific.
Games this week: vs. Vancouver on Monday; at Anaheim on Thursday.
Seattle Kraken: Trying to slide into a top-three spot in the Pacific
The Kraken were kinda, sorta, one of the bubble wild-card teams for a time, but after taking care of business with four wins last week (against Arizona twice, Vancouver and Chicago), they are now in control of their own destiny to move up past Los Angeles. The Kings cannot catch the Kraken by ROW, and Seattle is also currently one up in RW (the first tie-breaker), so even if Los Angeles were to win both of their remaining games, Seattle could still pass them if they win out. However, this week, their last two games come against much stiffer competition.
Games this week: at Arizona on Monday; at Vegas on Tuesday; vs. Vegas on Thursday
Winnipeg Jets: Just don’t blow it
Rick Bowness’ players are still in the driver’s seat here with three games remaining, a lead in standings points, and with the tie-breaker clinched. In fact, with a win Monday night, the Jets would officially eliminate the loser of the Predators-Flames game. Monday is also where the softest touch comes on their schedule. I’m not sure they want to let this opportunity pass by and have two teams still mathematically alive behind them, with Minnesota and Colorado remaining on the schedule.
Games this week: vs. San Jose on Monday; at Minnesota on Wednesday; at Colorado on Thursday
Calgary Flames: Playoffs still a possibility as off-season questions lie in wait
Unless the Flames completely surprise everyone by squeaking into the playoffs and finding magic for a multi-round run, they’re going to be facing major off-season questions in a matter of days. After keeping hope alive with a head-to-head win over Winnipeg last week — only to drop Saturday’s decision to Vancouver in a shootout — the Flames face another of their wild-card competitors straight up with Nashville in town Monday. This, again, is a must-win. And, who knows, a win against the Predators would set up a regular-season-ending home game against San Jose this week, which could be where they pass the Jets.
Games this week: vs. Nashville on Monday; vs. San Jose on Wednesday
Nashville Predators: Can they surprise everyone and be the last team in, on the last night of the regular season?
For a major trade deadline seller, and a roster that lost several veteran starters to injury over the past two months, the Predators have already exceeded expectations by even being in an article like this ahead of the last week of the regular season. And when it comes down to these small sample size windows, sometimes all it takes is a hot goalie to get through. The Predators may have the best one in this race, with Juuse Saros posting a .933 save percentage and 2.02 GAA in four April games so far. They do trail the Flames in the first tie-breaker (RW) by one, and are tied with them in the second tie-breaker (ROW) but Nashville has already clinched what would be the third tie-breaker over Calgary (total wins) even before Monday’s game.
Games this week: at Calgary on Monday; vs. Minnesota on Thursday; vs. Colorado on Friday