This is the Stanley Cup Playoff Push. On a game-less Friday, quiet, peaceful, serene.
That is until the Nashville Predators wake up on Saturday.
Three days after Wednesday’s “biggest game of the year” between Winnipeg and Calgary, we’ll have another one, this time between Winnipeg and Nashville. Yes, it’s true that the Jets still have control of their own destiny. They have a game in hand on the Flames, who they’re tied with in the standings, and are a point up on Nashville. Winnipeg has also clinched any tie-breaker scenario through ROW (the second tie-breaker), so the Preds or Flames have to finish ahead of the Jets to clinch the spot.
But the Predators are a key player here now too — the last western wild card spot runs through them.
That’s because Nashville’s next two games are head-to-head against their wild card opponents, in Winnipeg Saturday night and in Calgary on Monday. The Flames and Jets won’t match up again and, in fact, face very different types of opponents to finish (Winnipeg draws San Jose, Minnesota and Colorado; Calgary gets Vancouver and San Jose).
After Nashville’s run through Western Canada this weekend, they will finish their regular season at home with games on back-to-back nights against Minnesota and Colorado. These next two games loom large for them — a couple of wins against the Flames and Jets might even put the Predators in the driver’s seat.
But how has this Nashville team, which raised the white flag at the trade deadline and has been without Filip Forsberg (since February), Ryan Johansen (February), Roman Josi (mid-March) and Matt Duchene (late-March), stayed in the race?
Consider…
• Since the March 3 trade deadline the Predators are 10-7-2, a .579 points percentage that ranks 18th in the league. They have been five points better than the Jets (8-8-1) and equal to the Flames (10-5-2) in that time.
• Since the trade deadline, Nashville’s power play ranks 27th in the league (15.1 per cent), which is ahead of Winnipeg (13.1), but behind Calgary (21.3). Nashville’s penalty kill (84.1 per cent) ranks ninth in that time, again ahead of Winnipeg (76.9), but trailing Calgary (86.7).
• The Predators rank last in the league by expected goals per 60 at 5-on-5 since March 3, while Calgary (third) and Winnipeg (seventh) are both easily inside the top 10. Nashville is also 31st in actual goals per game since March 3. Winnipeg ranks 28th (which speaks to the trouble they’ve had finishing for months now) and Calgary is 10th.
• Nashville’s top scorers since March 3 are: Tommy Novak (eight goals, 19 points in 19 games), Luke Evangelista (six goals, 12 points in 18 games), Cody Glass (six goals, nine points in 19 games) and Philip Tomasino (four goals, 13 points in 18 games).
• As you may have already suspected, Juuse Saros is Nashville’s MVP of this run, and we’ve seen him single-handedly take this franchise into the playoffs before. Since March 3 Saros has a .921 save percentage and 2.52 goals-against average facing more shots (509) than any goalie in this time. He’s had some down games for sure — a 7-2 loss to Seattle and this week’s 5-1 loss in Dallas come to mind — but, simply, Saros is Nashville’s ticket to the playoffs. In just his past five games, where he’s somehow only gone 3-2-0, Saros has a 1.80 GAA and a .944 save percentage.
Is Nashville the best team of the three in the chase for the West’s last wild card? Hardly. But if they have the best-performing goalie of the three this week, that could be enough to get in.
The Predators hold the key to the Western wild card, but that’s far from the only playoff story left to unfold.
Here are some of the key games we’re watching this long weekend.
Carolina at Buffalo: Saturday at 12:30 p.m. ET
Tuesday’s thrilling 2-1 loss to Florida was the most important game the Sabres had played in more than a decade and the result unofficially put an end to their playoff bid. A loss to Carolina here may mathematically eliminate them. The story for the Sabres recently has been the play of rookie netminder Devon Levi, who stopped 65 of 69 shots against the Rangers and Panthers, but then was lit up for six against Detroit on Thursday. Will he again get the start in this Hail Mary game, or will they turn back to Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen?
On the other side, this game holds a ton of meaning for the Metro-leading Hurricanes, who have a one-point edge on New Jersey with a game in hand. Winning the division is the difference between drawing one of the wild card teams shuffling their way in, or the high-flying and deep New York Rangers in Round 1. But do the Canes have enough offence? Carolina has just nine regulation-time goals in its past six games.
Pittsburgh at Detroit: Saturday at 1 p.m. ET
All of the key stakeholders in the Eastern wild card race won their games on Thursday, maybe none more surprising than Pittsburgh’s 4-1 win over the Minnesota Wild. Who knows what we could get from the Penguins, who also got hammered 5-1 by New Jersey this past week, and gave Boston a good run in a 4-3 regulation loss last weekend. In theory Detroit is a winnable matchup, but the Penguins have lost both meetings against the Wings this season, including dropping a 7-4 decision on March 28.
Florida at Washington: Saturday at 7 p.m. ET
The Panthers come into this game winners of five in a row, scoring a whopping 24 goals in that span. Heck, the Panthers hung seven goals on the competition twice this past week. However the story here comes in net, where Sergei Bobrovsky is nearing a return from illness as 30-year-old journeyman Alex Lyon is writing an improbable script. Bobrovsky has been out of the lineup since the Leafs game on March 29 and Lyon has been spectacular. In five starts, Lyon is 5-0-0 with a .961 save percentage and 1.40 GAA. If Bobrovsky is back to health, which of the two would you ride with as the Panthers hope to keep control of a playoff spot?
Philadelphia at NY Islanders: Saturday at 7:30 p.m. ET
Dropping two in a row and with just two goals in their past three games, the Islanders are suddenly in a perilous position on the edge of the wild card cutoff. They may have the easiest schedule the rest of the way, though, with games against Washington and Montreal next week to follow Saturday’s meeting with the Flyers.
Note on the Eastern Conference wild-card tie-breaker situation
The two teams currently holding down the wild card spots (Panthers and Islanders) have clinched the tie-breakers against their opponents by way of regulation wins (RW, the first tie-breaker). So, if Pittsburgh or Buffalo are to squeeze in, they have to outright pass either of those teams. If it were to come down to the Penguins and Sabres in a tie-breaker, Pittsburgh is two up on Buffalo in both RW and ROW. Making Buffalo’s path even more difficult is the fact Pittsburgh won the season series between the two, which is used as the third tie-breaker. So, it seems Buffalo’s only way into the playoffs is to pass at least two teams ahead of them in points.
Vegas at Dallas: Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET
Both teams are still chasing down a division crown, where they’d avoid a streaking, difficult opponent for a wild card finisher instead. While Vegas has been one of the NHL’s hottest teams over the past month, Dallas has done well taking care of the non-playoff teams they’ve met, but have only faced a top-three team within a division three times in the past month (going 1-2-0). With the right results, Vegas could end up clinching the Pacific Division Saturday night if they win this game and Edmonton loses theirs…
Edmonton at San Jose: Saturday at 4 p.m. ET
The Oilers play San Jose twice in their remaining three games, with Colorado in between. A few things are on the line here. One is the Pacific title, which the Golden Knights are in control of — though we should note the Oilers would win a tie-breaker scenario against Vegas. Another is home-ice advantage in Round 1, which the Oilers could clinch with a win Saturday and a Kings loss. And then there are the various historic milestones being chased down by Leon Draisaitl and Connor McDavid. As long as there is some positioning to play for, we wouldn’t expect load management to come into play for either.
Nashville at Winnipeg: Saturday at 7 p.m. ET
The next-biggest game of the season comes here. A regulation win for Winnipeg would push the Preds to the brink, but a regulation win for Nashville would leap them up and over the Jets and, potentially, land Winnipeg in 10th by the time the night is over. This is absolutely must-win for the Predators, but in a way it is for Winnipeg too: if they were to drop this game in regulation, they would lose control of their own destiny.
St. Louis at Minnesota: Saturday at 8 p.m. ET
The Wild went into last weekend winners of five of their past six games, but have now lost three in a row (one in a shootout) and have fallen behind the pace in the Central Division. The last time these two faced off on March 15 the Wild came away with an 8-5 victory and we nearly had a goalie fight thanks to one of Jordan Binnington’s overheated meltdowns. The Wild, trailing the Avalanche and Stars by two points, have a disadvantage in the tie-breaker as well, so have work to do if they’re to move into a home-ice advantage position for Round 1.
Calgary at Vancouver: Saturday at 10 p.m. ET
It’s possible the Flames wind up holders of the West’s second wild card spot by the end of Saturday night, but first they have to defeat the Canucks to get there. Winners of six of their past eight, Calgary is the hottest of the three teams in the wild-card race, and they did beat the Canucks 5-4 in overtime last Friday. Jacob Markstrom’s stellar effort in Wednesday’s 3-1 win over Winnipeg dispels any question in the crease for this game.
Colorado at Los Angeles: Saturday at 10:30 p.m. ET
On Jan. 1 the Avalanche were one point out of a wild card spot, but even at that point we all expected the defending champs would make a late-season charge — and they did just that. With a 28-11-3 record since Jan. 1, Colorado’s .702 points percentage ranks fourth in the league (behind Boston, Edmonton, and the Rangers) and well ahead of their Central Division foes. Now we wonder about injuries. Gabriel Landeskog has been out all season, but now Cale Makar has been ruled out with what’s being called a “lower-body injury” and an uncertain timetable for a return. Just in time for a highly meaningful game against the Kings Saturday night, who fell behind the Pacific Division pace with losses to Edmonton and Vegas this week. Los Angeles will be looking to re-position themselves for a run in the final week, when they’ll face Vancouver and Anaheim.
Colorado at Anaheim: Sunday at 8:30 p.m. ET
Only a couple games on the schedule for Sunday and again Colorado will have a meaningful one. At least on the second half of this back-to-back they draw the lowly Ducks. This game will either be one in which the Avalanche can take a decisive hold on the Central crown, or bounce back into it if Saturday’s results don’t go their way. It’s important for the Avalanche to stay ahead of Dallas, who it seems would win a tie-breaker between the two (currently with a three-game lead in regulation wins).
Note on the Western Conference wild card tie-breaker situation
As mentioned off the top, the Jets have clinched the tie-breaker scenarios over Nashville and Calgary, but what if it comes down to a tie between the Predators and Flames? That’s still very much in the air. Keeping in mind that the Preds have one game in hand on the Flames, Calgary currently leads Nashville by one in regulation wins (the first tie-breaker) and the two teams are tied in regulation and overtime wins (the second tie-breaker). If it went to a third tie-breaker (head-to-head games) Nashville would win, since they have been victorious in both of their two meetings so far. Nashville and Calgary will play Monday night.