It’s unclear when the news will come, and what the number will be, but it appears good news is on the horizon when it comes to Auston Matthews staying with the Toronto Maple Leafs beyond next season.
“I still am convinced that Auston Matthews is gonna sign in Toronto. I’ve been consistent about that, I still believe it,” Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman said during the latest episode of 32 Thoughts: The Podcast, released Friday.
Friedman explained that, from the viewpoint of Matthews’ camp, the elite 25-year-old centreman can expect to sign “two more big contracts in his future.”
“I think the Maple Leafs are gonna try to get a max-term deal out of this,” Friedman said. “I don’t know what the likelihood is, but I think they’re gonna try.”
Per Friedman, new Leafs GM Brad Treliving met with Matthews in Arizona last week. Unlike last summer’s dinner meeting with Jonathan Huberdeau, who signed an eight-year extension with the Flames three days after sitting down with the now-former Calgary GM, Matthews has yet to sign such a deal in the wake of the Arizona visit. Friedman said both parties are “being really quiet” about negotiations in an effort to preserve the confidentiality of the process.
While Matthews is still under contract for another year, there is a sense of urgency given the long to-do list that landed on Treliving’s desk upon his hiring and swirling speculation about the longevity of the club’s Core Four.
Matthews is entering the final year of his five-year pact signed in February 2019, counting for $11.64 million against the cap. Not re-signing would start the clock ticking toward his pending unrestricted free agency July 1, 2024. Letting this process stretch out without a solid answer on term and cap hit would hinder Treliving & Co.’s ability to forge ahead with a clearer vision of the future during these crucial final weeks of June.
“I think that both sides understand here that this isn’t a decision that can wait a long time,” said Friedman. “The Maple Leafs, they’re doing their scouting meetings right now, they have to know kind of what this is going to look like so they can make a number of long-term decisions. The one thing that everybody here is well aware of, is that this is not something that can wait a long time. If nobody was sure that Matthews wanted to stay, I think we’d have a real problem here. But I think everybody, including Matthews’ people, recognizes that he wants to stay. So I think now becomes the question of, how quickly can this get done? And what are we looking at, so Toronto can do their other business.”
One piece of “other” business is the fate of Michael Bunting in blue and white. Bunting, a UFA come July 1, found incredible success with the Maple Leafs upon signing a two-year, $1.9-million pact with the club two summers ago. So strong has his play been, he may have priced himself out of what Toronto can offer.
“I heard they had a really short meeting or conversation with Bunting and I think everybody knows here that it’s gonna be very hard to do but I don’t think they’ve specifically said ‘no’ yet,” Friedman said. “I think they’re gonna get through this week and kind of have a better idea.”
Friday’s podcast episode included news and updates on several other storylines to watch as free agency nears, including Vegas’ hopes of re-signing rental Ivan Barbashev and the latest rumblings on Alex DeBrincat’s situation in Ottawa. Here’s a roundup of news and notes from the podcast as well as other outlets around the league:
Vegas wants to keep Barbashev, but can they afford him?
The Vegas Golden Knights’ deadline acquisition of former St. Louis Blues forward Ivan Barbashev came up aces, and considering the instant chemistry and overwhelming success of Barbashev’s four-month stint on the Vegas strip, might the two sides try to strike a long-term deal?
According to Friedman, they’ve already tried. And while the team and player were “too far apart” in pre-playoff negotiations, he believes Vegas will take another swing at locking him up.
It won’t be easy. For starters, Barbashev has earned himself an enormous raise — gone are the days of his bargain $2.25-million cap hit, which should more than double in size with his next deal. With the Golden Knights approaching another off-season of cap gymnastics, the math will be hard to manage. And they won’t be the only ones trying to entice the two-time Cup champ, either. Barbashev’s post-season performance, which saw him suit up on the top line and tally seven goals and 18 points for the Cup champs, just bumped him up to the title of most eligible UFA on the market.
Friedman pointed to last summer’s signing of Valeri Nichushkin in Colorado as a comparable, both in terms of past earnings and what to expect next. Following his nine-goal, 15-point post-season to help Colorado hoist the Stanley Cup, the team negotiated an eight-year, $49-million pact with Nichushkin upon the expiration of his two-year, $5-million deal. Nichushkin’s new contract counts for $6.125 million against the cap.
“I don’t know that Barbashev’s getting that high, but I do think now he could get eight years — and I didn’t think that was gonna be happening three weeks ago,” said Friedman. “So, we’re in a position now where this guy is the No. 1 guy on the market and the offers are gonna come pouring in.”
Panthers prioritizing extensions for Montour, Forsling
The Stanley Cup runners-up suffered a string of significant injuries this post-season that will see key players like Matthew Tkachuk and Aaron Ekblad likely sidelined into next fall.
But from strictly a cap and roster construction perspective, they appear to emerge from the 2022-23 campaign relatively unscathed. Their core is locked up for next year — and beyond, in many cases — with only defenceman Radko Gudas standing out as a UFA to watch. Atop their summertime to-do list are two other defenceman, Brandon Montour and Gustav Forsling, who become extension-eligible July 1.
“One of the things I was told is that the Panthers will try to take runs at Montour and Forsling,” said Friedman. “I wouldn’t be surprised if their most important bit of business was not anybody this year — it’s about trying to get ahead of those two guys before next year.”
It’s no surprise why. Montour, who will again cost just $3.5 million against the cap in 2023-24, had a breakout season this year and was clutch in the playoffs while Forsling ($2.67 million) proved himself a valuable, versatile rearguard who really hit his stride in Florida’s top four. Both players are due to hit unrestricted free agency for the first time next summer.
Here’s Friedman on Gudas, 33, who will be a UFA July 1: “Gudas, to me, will be a real fascinating one … I could still see him getting a three- or four-year deal because I think there’s gonna be a lot of interest in him. I think there was a team that could’ve had him at the deadline; they didn’t do it, and I think they may regret it. And I’m sure there’s other teams — if there was one, maybe there were others. But the way Gudas played in the post-season, if you want him it’s probably going to mean three or four years … I think someone out there is gonna do that.”
Another draft, another DeBrincat deal?
Last June, Ottawa Senators general manager Pierre Dorion pulled off a much-praised trade to acquire Alex DeBrincat from the Chicago Blackhawks.
The union ultimately didn’t pan out the way it was projected, and with the pending RFA forward still not committed to signing in Canada’s capital long-term, Friedman said he thinks it’s “very possible” we see another DeBrincat headline around this year’s draft.
“I think the Senators are aggressively looking at this. I think they see where this is likely going and that is DeBrincat playing somewhere else,” said Friedman.
Plus, a reminder of the Senators’ protocol:
“Again, from what I understand, Ottawa’s saying, ‘You’ve got to make the trade with us, or a trade that we’re happy with, before we’ll let you speak to the player.’”
Devils nearing long-term deal with Meier
New Jersey Devils general manager Tom Fitzgerald has been busy already this off-season. First, he pulled off the sign-and-trade of defenceman Damon Severson (now a Blue Jacket) and then on Thursday announced an eight-year pact with Jesper Bratt worth $7.875 million annually.
On Friday, Fitzgerald made it clear he’s looking to sign on the dotted line with another star player in Timo Meier. New Jersey acquired the pending RFA in a deadline deal with San Jose in February.
“Timo knows since I spoke to him [on June 15],” the GM said, according to NHL.com. “He knows how much we want to continue this relationship, long term, and he’s reiterated that to me … this is where he wants to be. He sees himself as a Devil and has asked his agent to negotiate an eight-year deal with us. It’s music to my ears and we’ll continue to kind of chip away at it, but the goal is to have Timo Meier in a Devils uniform for the next eight years.”
Canadiens reportedly trying to move up in draft
Earlier this week, The Athletic‘s Arpon Basu confirmed a Radio Canada report saying the Montreal Canadiens “are trying everything they can to move up in the draft.” Basu said the Canadiens have contacted the Anaheim Ducks about that No. 2 overall selection — the slot widely assumed to be where Adam Fantilli will go.
“The chances of a trade up materializing remain very slim, but the Canadiens are definitely trying,” wrote Basu.
Kings making things ‘interesting’ in Pierre-Luc Dubois situation
If you thought Pierre-Luc Dubois was destined for Montreal, you weren’t alone. But according to Friedman, who said as much in a recent edition of the 32 Thoughts podcast and amplified the message in Friday’s episode, the Los Angeles Kings “have made this interesting.”
“I think they’ve leaned in very hard. And I think that they’ve made it very clear to Winnipeg — if they haven’t made an offer, they have basically let Winnipeg know: ‘We’re in, and we’re willing to make this work,’” explained Friedman. “I think the Kings are very much in this now.”
Dubois, 24, is an arbitration-eligible restricted free agent come July 1 following his one-year, $6-million contract with the Jets.
Tom Wilson trade ‘not happening’
Earlier this week, Tom Wilson’s name took a spin in the rumour mill, with Kings reporter John Hoven and fellow Sirius XM host Dennis Bernstein of The Fourth Period reporting the Kings had “kicked the tires” on the Washington Capitals forward. The gritty forward has one year remaining on his six-year, $31-million contract, after which he’ll be a UFA.
Friedman warned against predicting a move for Wilson this summer.
“I was told it’s not happening,” he said of the reports. “I was told that the Capitals want to keep him and they consider him a big part of their future.”