Welcome to our initial rankings for the 2023 NHL Draft. There has been great anticipation for this draft class despite most of it having been affected by the pandemic in some way. Having said that, the collective skill of this group is amongst the best we’ve seen in the past decade. While that may be true, it is important to keep in mind that skill doesn’t necessarily translate into NHL success, but it is a good indicator.
We’ve been waiting for Connor Bedard’s draft year since he became the WHL’s first exceptional player in 2020. Despite the roadblocks of limited schedules, travel and group training as a result of the pandemic, one thing has remained clear: Bedard is on path to becoming the first player selected at the 2023 draft in Nashville.
What’s fascinating about this draft class is what’s available aside from Bedard. Matvey Michkov is still feeling the affects of a knee injury suffered in September, but make no mistake, from a hockey-only perspective he possesses first overall talent. Then, there’s Michigan freshman Adam Fantilli, who, from the time he was recruited to the time he played his first game for the maize and blue, has already experienced a coaching change, and despite the adversity, is off to a blazing start in Ann Arbor.
My colleague Jason Bukala wrote an interesting piece Monday, that included Michkov. In a hockey bubble, he’s deserving of first overall consideration. However, we don’t live in a bubble. The ongoing war in Ukraine will provide a major challenge to selecting this player. If a team is picking that high, it will want some assurances that the player will come over and play. Last year we saw two likely top 10 Russian picks fall to 20 and 24 with Ivan Miroshnichenko and Danila Yurov, respectively. But neither of those two carry the same kind of cache that Michkov does. In other words, whoever is picking inside the top five is likely a team that needs a player of this calibre sooner rather than later.
If you’re able to guarantee that you can get the player out of the country, you then have a lengthy contract with his SKA club in Russia you’ll have to negotiate out of. For these reasons, it’s not out of the question a player of Michkov’s talent falls significantly on draft day, or maybe not.
From a pure talent perspective, I do believe there is some separation to the next tier of players. Looking at the collective, we have a number of highly skilled, speedy forwards. We have an unusually high number of right shot defencemen and we have a diverse bunch, with players from Canada, the USA, Sweden, Finland, Russia, Slovakia, Czechia, Germany all projected to go in round one. Lastly, we have a number of high-end late 2004-born players including Michkov, Fantilli and Sweden’s Leo Carlsson.
There are also a couple of goalies, who may not quite make it to the first round, but project within the top 50 picks. That’s reassuring, because the goaltending position has been the one most impacted by the effects of COVID-19.
NHL Central Scouting will be out with its initial Players to Watch rankings next week. This always serves as a good benchmark, as scouts have had a month or more plus the Hlinka-Gretzky in which to get their bearings. In the meantime, here’s our first list of the year. In addition, Bukala will follow with some of his thoughts on these rankings Thursday.
1. Connor Bedard, C, Regina Pats (WHL): No indication of draft year nerves. Has started the season flirting with a two point per game pace.
2. Matvey Michkov, RW, SKA St. Petersburg (KHL): The most fascinating prospect to watch this season, if you can find video.
3. Adam Fantilli, C, U of Michigan (NCAA): Path to stardom started as an underaged player in U16 hockey, continued through USHL Chicago and the pace hasn’t stopped as an NCAA freshman, where he has eight points in four games.
4. Leo Carlsson, C, Orebro (SHL): Big body player (6-foot-3, 194 pounds) who will use his speed to burn defenders on the outside, but is skilled enough to protect the puck to take it to the interior.
5. Brayden Yager, C, Moose Jaw Warriors (WHL): A dynamic skater who will shoot at anytime. Will drag others into the fight.
6. Zachary Benson, C, Winnipeg Ice (WHL): Unbelievably skilled player who drives play. Benson handles the puck well, especially at top speed and makes those around him better.
7. Dalibor Dvorsky, C, AIK (Allsvenskan): At the start of the scouting season in his underaged year, one scout had Dvorsky as a surefire top five pick. He’s not far off, but finding playing time on one team as opposed to bouncing up and down in Sweden, will surely help.
8. Otto Stenberg, C, Frolunda (SHL): Exhibits great details in his game, not to mention a skill set that projects as a top six forward. Made a cameo appearance in his SHL debut October 13.
9. Calum Ritchie, C, Oshawa Generals (OHL): Plays a pro style game all over the ice. Even on nights where you don’t think he’s been effective, check the score sheet.
10. Eduard Sale, RW, Brno (Czechia): Plays with the confidence to try anything, and has the skill to accomplish most of what he tries.
11. Charle Stramel, RW, U. of Wisconsin (NCAA): Uses size to establish net front presence. Plays in straight lines and will impose his will on opponents.
12. Kasper Halttunen, LW, HIFK (Liiga): Looked like a man amongst boys at the Hlinka-Gretzky. Typical big-bodied forward you need to win in the playoffs.
13. Cameron Allen, D, Guelph Storm (OHL): Plays both sides well. Effective transporter and passer of the puck. Has the ability to get shots through from the point.
14. Riley Heidt, C, Prince George Cougars (WHL): Plays with a chip on his shoulder by being in a smaller market and not getting the same love as his WHL counterparts.
15. Mikhail Gulyayev, D, Omsk (MHL): Has already played at three different levels this season. He’s too good for the MHL, and not quite ready for the KHL.
16. Theo Lindstein, D, Brynas, (SWE U20): Two-way defender who skates well and thinks ahead of the play.
17. Will Smith, C, USNTDP: A prolific goal scorer all the way up, who is pacing the USNTDP in one of the best starts in program history.
18. Nate Danielson, C, Brandon Wheat Kings (WHL): Versatile player who was given a ton of responsibility as a 16-year-old for Brandon. Plays both ends and wins faceoffs.
19. Colby Barlow, RW, Owen Sound Attack (OHL): Is this the next Mason McTavish? Earned reputation as a 30-goal scorer in the OHL at 16 years old, but showed layers to his game, including the ability to work the PK, while representing his country in the summer.
20. Ryan Leonard, RW, USNTDP: Showed flashes playing up with the U-18s last season. Has answered the bell as a go-to guy for the program with plenty of early success against college competition.
21. Oliver Moore, C, USNTDP: Jumps off the page for his great skating ability. Has soft hands, good vision and understands how best to utilize his space.
22. Caden Price, D, Kelowna Rockets (WHL): Ultra responsible defenceman who can move pucks efficiently. Despite good junior point production, projects more as a complementary defenceman who limits mistakes and manages the puck well.
23. Matthew Wood, RW, UConn (NCAA): Coming off an all-world BCHL season, Wood is off to a torrid start as a freshman. Still looks like a player who hasn’t quite caught up to his size (6-foot-3, 190 pounds). Adding strength is a must for all facets.
24. Ethan Gauthier, RW, Sherbrooke Phoenix (QMJHL): There’s some grease to his game. Will battle to create open ice, but also has the goal scoring knack to get there quietly.
25. Andrew Cristall, LW, Kelowna Rockets (WHL): Can skill and will overcome the slight (5-foot-10, 165 pounds) frame?
26. Kalan Lind, LW, Red Deer Rebels (WHL): Plays like an old-school rat, which has become a lost art, yet coveted at the next level.
27. Emil Jarventie, RW, Ilves (Liiga U20): Has great hands that make him deceptive and give him the ability to be a successful 1v1 player.
28. Ty Peddle, C, Drummondville Voltigeurs: Pesky and production are the key words that define this player.
29. Kevin Bicker, LW, Mannheim (GER U20): Jumped off the page for Germany at the Hlinka-Gretzky, and most recently performed well on a mini U20 tour against North American competition.
30. Koehn Ziemmer, RW, Prince George Cougars (WHL): Sturdy in stature and a reputation for playing physically gives him space to utilize his best weapon, a deadly shot.
31. Hunter Brzustewicz, D, Kitchener Rangers (OHL): Passes it like a pro, with pace and accuracy. Can run a PP1 in junior, but will that skill project to the next level?
32. Carson Rehkopf, C, Kitchener Rangers (OHL): At his best he can impact the game in a number of ways. Consistency in effort will help achieve that, even if points aren’t produced.