Stanley Cup Playoffs Round 1 Takeaways: Presidents’ Trophy curse strikes again

Round 1 of the Stanley Cup Playoffs did not disappoint — unless, of course, you were rooting for Boston or Tampa or Colorado or Minnesota or Los Angeles or Winnipeg or either New York team.

You know what I mean. For the rest of us, the opening round was full of exciting games and series finishes. And heck, those losing fan bases probably had fun along the way, too.

So as Round 2 begins and we look forward to seeing who advances into the final four, we take one more look back at the first two weeks with some takeaways…

The Presidents’ Trophy curse is for real…until maybe the next season

Once again the regular season’s best team called it quits early in the playoffs, and we can ponder what that may say about how facing “adversity” can help teams in do-or-die series. The Boston Bruins, history’s best NHL team by regular season wins and points, blew a 3-1 series lead to the wild card (in their seeding and how they play) Florida Panthers, who themselves know a thing or two about the Presidents’ Trophy curse.

Florida, of course, were last year’s Presidents’ Trophy winners, and while they did earn the franchise’s first playoff series win since 1996, they were swept by Tampa Bay in the second round and quickly forgotten about again. They needed an unlikely run of play from third-string goalie Alex Lyon to even get back into the playoffs this season, but with this upset, we have to look at the Presidents’ Trophy curse in another light.

Here’s how recent regular season champs have fared in the post-season, and then what they did the next year…

It’s now been 10 years — and counting — since a Presidents’ Trophy winner claimed the Stanley Cup in the same season. But history has shown that since those teams are constructed well enough to some degree, they’re maybe even more dangerous in the follow-up season.

This era of the Jets feels like it should be over — but will it be?

This had clearly been building for some time, and probably even before this year’s Jets took a mid-January Western Conference lead and ended up backing into the last available playoff spot.

Remember last year the Jets’ season ended after regular season failure and significant questions about this core’s trajectory were first raised, both from the outside and even within.

“I’d love to be in Winnipeg, but I also have to see where this is all going and what direction this team is going in and I guess we’ll see this summer,” is what Mark Scheifele said last year.

And now this, an emotional takedown by head coach Rick Bowness, who waltzed into this mire with fresh eyes in September and did a pretty good job corralling the group until the long-standing fissures broke the foundation down again.

“We have to push back. There has to be a pushback. There has to be pride. You have to be able to push back when things aren’t going your way. We had no pushback. Their better players were so much better than ours tonight. They deserved to win. They were the better team in the regular season, they were the better team in this series,” an exasperated Bowness said after the Jets were eliminated by Vegas in five games.

After that, some players like Blake Wheeler took exception to Bowness airing team laundry to the media. Connor Hellebuyck, almost sounding like 2022 Scheifele, cast questions on his future and seemed to open the door to a departure if the Jets don’t gear up as serious contenders. The team committed to Bowness as its head coach for another season, so we know he’ll be back.

But which players will be?

The contract picture adds pressure and urgency to this matter. Scheifele, Wheeler and Hellebuyck are core members who will be UFAs after next season. Pierre-Luc Dubois is an offer sheet-eligible RFA this summer, one year away from unrestricted free agency and with designs on playing elsewhere. Any, or all, could be wearing different uniforms next season. And if they all go, what will termed stars Kyle Connor and Josh Morrissey think of it all?

Truth be told, though, the man who would pull those levers tends to err on the side of status quo. And at his end-of-season press conference GM Kevin Cheveldayoff — who was given a vote of confidence from ownership — didn’t sound like someone about to engage in the biggest garage sale the NHL has seen.

Whether big or small, willing or not, this situation still demands some level of change. In 12 years under Cheveldayoff, the Jets have won three playoff rounds, two of which came in the 2018 run to the West Final. This group, specifically, has won just a single series since then, and one playoff game win total in the past two years. You have players questioning their futures here with expiring contracts, a coach frustrated with the leadership group, and a lack of recent success — all while the small-market Jets had their lowest attendance turnout since returning to Manitoba.

Do you rebuild in this moment? Can you re-tool on the fly and keep some of the core intact? Can you keep the guts of the roster as-is and expect improvement?

What happens from here is anyone’s guess. But it has to be something…doesn’t it?

The importance of the power play — and why ref ‘controversies’ are so heated

As is the case every year, referees and the calls they make or miss are a source of frustration and anger on a near nightly basis. Yes, the game is faster than ever and more difficult to follow. Yes, it’s a hard job. And, yes, there are things to consider that would improve the whole issue (media availability, set standards and priorities from the league most of all).

But, at its core, the problem doesn’t lie in a tin foil hat conspiracy. You could even debate long into the night if NHL officiating is truly getting worse, or if the stakes of these calls are just higher than before, and with eyes on every slo-motion frame?

Consider that Round 1 of the 2023 Stanley Cup Playoffs had the highest power play success rate of any salary cap era year, and it wasn’t particularly close. Teams combined to convert on 25.7 per cent of the power plays last round, up over five percentage points from a year ago.

A total of 84 power play goals were scored in Round 1 this year, the second-most for an opening round in the cap era. The only other first round where more total power play goals were scored in this era came in 2005-06 (97), but there were 195 more power play opportunities handed out that season.

It’s worth pointing out that, currently, four of the top seven power play success rates in Stanley Cup Playoffs history (no games played minimum) are from the 2022-23 season. Two of those teams Winnipeg (second) and Boston (fourth) are now out, so will remain there. The other two Edmonton (first) and Dallas (seventh) will forge on.

Quite simply, the theme of these playoffs so far is don’t take penalties. Like, at all.

But if you do, blame the ref.

Timo Meier’s big impact on the Devils without points, and why they’re about to come

The Devils got through to the second round without getting a single point from their major trade deadline addition, Timo Meier. Sometimes that might spell doom, but in a way, it could be turned into a reason to believe in the Devils even more.

The rest of the Devils pulled together and we got some great performances by the numbers. Akira Schmid came out of almost nowhere and is a top candidate on our early Conn Smythe rankings. Jack Hughes met the moment in his first taste of the post-season. But let’s be clear: the Devils didn’t win in spite of Meier’s missing offence. He, and his line, had great effect.

Meier spent a chunk of time in Round 1 sharing a line with Jesper Bratt and Nico Hischier, and when that trio was together they were absolutely dominant. At 5-on-5, that line outshot the Rangers 21-8 and had an expected goals-for percentage of 73.28…but were actually outscored 1-0 by New York.

As an individual, Meier had the highest expected goal output among all Devils in Round 1, and was second in the league next to Nathan MacKinnon (Meier was better than MacKinnon by a per-minute measure). Yet Meier was kept off the score sheet completely for all seven games.

There may have been some bad luck there that could turn in the next round. Meier’s series against the Rangers effectively ended on Jacob Trouba’s hit in Game 7, so we’ll first have to see if there are any ill-effects going forward.

But if healthy, and especially if that line is put back together, Meier could be on the verge of having a very big series. And the Devils will need it, because what the Hurricanes lack in finishers, they make up for with an excellent blue line and team defence.

Speaking of that Trouba hit…

Should any and all hits that connect to the head be outlawed?

First thing’s first: we’re not here to debate whether or not Trouba’s Game 7 hit on Meier was legal under current rules. As the rule book stands, it was not an “Illegal Check to the Head”.

But where the debate takes off is if this should be against the rules, or if the contact by Trouba was avoidable. Should all head contact under any circumstance be a penalty? Should Trouba have not hit an oncoming puck carrier moving straight at him and assessed that Meier was “vulnerable?”

Trouba has a well-earned reputation as a devastating hitter and he has been dirty with his elbows in the past. That is worth considering when discussing his intent on this play. But if you take out the emotion and history of this player, and focus on what happened on this sequence as a whole, I think we’re left with an interesting discussion on what should be OK, what should not, and how much we really want physicality to be part of the pro game.

What responsibility, if any, does Meier have on this play? If you think Trouba hit a vulnerable player, why was Meier vulnerable? He was almost gliding through open ice, not moving his legs, and chose to take on four Rangers defenders in that spot to attempt an offensive zone entry. This wasn’t a play where he is dangerously along the boards, or coming around the net unable to see a defender around the corner. There was no blindside here. Meier is moving directly at Trouba from the bottom of the centre ice circle in.

I see an egregiously careless zone entry, which is a very important area of the ice for the defence to shut down.

I try not to be a “dinosaur” (so last decade) in these moments. Positive progress has been made in the area of headshots, players are better protected by the rule book now, and we’re still likely only in the early stages of tackling the issue. It’s only been 12 years since Rule 48 was introduced, so we’re probably not in its final form yet.

What has to be wrestled with is how far you take it, what effects that could have on the product… and, honestly, its appeal to the viewer.

Should a player in Meier’s position be released of any personal responsibility when he’s actively trying to beat the defence? Should there be a zero-tolerance rule for any head contact so that player safety is what’s prioritized above all else? Or, is this example specifically just part of a proudly physical game?

I have no doubt the players would adapt to any further changes to Rule 48, just as they did when it was first introduced, and just as they did when obstruction was first cracked down on to end the Dead Puck Era. The game would change again, as it has several times before.

This Trouba hit on Meier, though, is really where player safety meets with the desire to have a physical professional NHL game.

What do you want the NHL to be?

Colorado’s ‘easy’ Cup window is closed

OK, OK there is nothing “easy” about winning the Stanley Cup. Roast me. But if you build and time your team’s contract structure just right, it’s a heck of a lot more manageable to ice a juggernaut.

The Avalanche had a few really good years to take their runs and were finally successful right near the end of the time where their window to win was opened its widest. When they won the Cup last season, Nathan MacKinnon was making $6.3 million against the cap, Nazem Kadri was at $4.5 million and Valeri Nichushkin at $2.5 million. That’s half of your top-six scorers all coming at a value.

Their cap window had already started to tighten by their championship season. Cale Makar was already earning $9 million, Gabriel Landeskog $7 million and Mikko Rantanen $9.25 million. Then Kadri was priced out as a free agent, and Nichushkin re-upped for a new $6.125 million AAV.

Still, the biggest advantage the Avs had was MacKinnon’s steal of a deal, which comes to an end this summer. In 2023-24, MacKinnon will now rake in $12.6 million against the cap. The plus is that all the core players are locked in now and, hey, they won a Stanley Cup, it’s a good core. But now it’ll get tougher to build the depth around them.

J.T. Compher is one important player who needs to be re-signed, and there are eight total UFAs on this year’s roster. Bowen Byram is an RFA coming off his cheap entry-level contract. A year from now, top-pair defender Devon Toews will be UFA eligible.

Injuries caught up to this year’s Avalanche, but the Seattle Kraken very much earned their first-round upset and can credit their offence and team depth for the overwhelming waves they were able to keep throwing at the Avs. It’s that sort of roster construction that will be nearly impossible for the Avalanche to attain now.

Colorado is still going to be a top Stanley Cup contender with this core of players in place. From here on, though, it’s only going to get tougher to acquire the right overall mix.

Make way for the new kids

The defending champions are out. Last year’s finalists, and the 2021 and 2020 champs, are golfing. The best regular season team in NHL history is no more.

In their place, we have the Toronto Maple Leafs, who won their first playoff round in 19 years. We have the Florida Panthers, who broke their own 26-year playoff series win drought last season, but still haven’t won a game in the second round since 1996. And we have the Seattle Kraken, who just joined the league last year.

The most proven contenders left are Vegas (who missed the playoffs last year) Edmonton (who had one series win in 15 years before reaching the conference final in 2022), and, I suppose, the Dallas Stars since they just reached the Cup final in 2020. Carolina is the most recent champion still alive, but they haven’t won a third round game since Rod Brind’Amour raised the Stanley Cup as their team captain in 2006.

That’s not exactly a row of can’t-beat-’em teams that can also mentally affect you with their proven run of winning and meeting big moments. The floor is wide open for something special, or new, in 2023.

On to Round 2.