With the NHL season having opened in North America on Oct. 8, we are now one month into the meat of it, which is enough time to make some broad observations.
Although the true measure of pressure can be taken at the one-quarter mark, every team is through at least 11 games, and some leaders have begun to take shape. By points percentage, the Pacific has a couple of expected contenders on top, while the Edmonton Oilers are chasing a bit again. In the Central, the Winnipeg Jets are scorching and creating separation between them and expected challengers from Dallas and Colorado. The Metro has the usual cast on top, with the predictable resurgent New Jersey Devils in the mix, and the Atlantic Division is led by the defending Stanley Cup champions and followed by a whole lot of noise.
That’s where we’ll start our early-season observations, with a look at how one team in the Metropolitan Division is shaking things up out east.
Washington is helping make the Atlantic an even more fascinating division
Qualifying for last season’s playoffs by the slimmest of margins (a tiebreaker), the Washington Capitals seemed to be on the way out, fading with an aging roster along with the Pittsburgh Penguins. Three points separated those long-time divisional rivals in 2024, and some projected both Pittsburgh and Washington to keep tumbling.
So far that has been true for the Penguins, but the Capitals have been one of the better early-season stories this season. With a 9-3-0 record and tied for first in the Metropolitan Division, the Caps have Alex Ovechkin with eight goals in 12 games pacing toward toppling the all-time record this season, Dylan Strome among the league points leaders with 19 in 12 games, and the Connor McMichael-Tom Wilson duo combining for 14 goals on a line, with reclamation project Pierre-Luc Dubois between them. Logan Thompson might possibly be playing his way into the Canadian goalie conversation for the 4 Nations Face-Off tournament. Meantime, defencemen Jakob Chychrun and Matt Roy have missed time to injuries.
Washington’s surge back up the Metro is making things much tighter and more urgent in the Eastern Conference’s other division. If the Caps had continued to fall back, two wild-card spots might have been available to the Atlantic and opened up a clearer path for one of Detroit, Ottawa or Buffalo to take the step they sorely need. Without that, those rebuilders will have to topple one of the Big Four (Tampa Bay, Toronto, Boston, Florida) ahead of them.
And early on, at least, the possibility exists that some turnover could come to the Atlantic. As of Thursday, the Boston Bruins sit on the outside of a playoff spot, with Detroit holding the second wild-card slot by way of points percentage (.542). Even the Senators have a better points percentage than the Bruins. The Sabres are nipping at Boston’s heels and have a goal differential of minus-2 that is 10 better than the Bruins’ minus-12.
There is caution for all of the bubble teams, however. Boston’s coach may be on the hot seat, as the team leads the league in penalties and struggles to score at five-on-five. Buffalo and Ottawa are still struggling to find consistency, Detroit is struggling to find offence, while Montreal is showing through its lack of defence that it’s still probably a step or two behind.
Tampa Bay is slightly ahead of this group in points, though actually behind the Red Wings in points percentage. The Lightning have lost three in a row and have the second-lowest expected goals rate in the division, propped up partially by a high shooting percentage.
Kirill Kaprizov‘s price goes up by the day
Winnipeg may be the top story in the Central Division, but don’t discount the Wild. Until their loss Tuesday against Los Angeles, they were the only team left along with Winnipeg that had lost only a single game in regulation.
Long stuck in the league’s mushy middle, with seven playoff appearances in the past nine seasons but zero series wins, there’s optimism that the Wild could be setting up to turn a corner. At the centre of that outlook is Kaprizov, who is third in league scoring and first in primary assists. If this continues, he could be in a conversation to win his first league award since the Calder in 2021.
Anticipation had been building toward Kaprizov’s arrival, and when he finally did come to the NHL as a 23-year-old in the pandemic-shortened 2020-21 season, it was obvious that much of the Wild’s future hopes hinged on him delivering as a breakout star. And even without the hardware he has done just that, scoring goals at the fourth-best rate per game since entering the league.