Three potential goalies for the leaking Oilers to target in trade

The bad news is that this start to Edmonton’s season has been alarming, to the point where there’s concern about the Oilers’ playoff chances in November.

The good news is the Oilers have been here before, just a little later in the season … and figured it out.

Today we’re wondering if the Oilers will enter the tepid goalie trade market, just as we did in January of 2022 when Edmonton was similarly leaking. At that time the Oilers were in the midst of a slump in which they had lost 13 of 15 games, seven in a row, and had several stats on both offence and defence that ranked at the bottom of the league for a month. They were six points out of a playoff spot, Mike Smith was hurt, Mikko Koskinen was struggling to carry the load and playoffs were in question.

Sound familiar?

A month after we looked at Edmonton’s goalie options in 2022, the Oilers dismissed head coach Dave Tippett and replaced him with Jay Woodcroft, who oversaw a charge to 104 points and second place in the Pacific Division. They never did get a goalie — it’s really hard to acquire a good one in-season — and the two they had recovered well enough.

That summer general manager Ken Holland signed Jack Campbell.

Today, much has been said about the Oilers’ team defence, and a new system being employed that seems to have thrown them off for the first month. But there’s no mistaking that the root cause of these early-season problems has been a netminding duo that just hasn’t been able to keep the puck out of the net. The Oilers have scored the first goal in seven of their 11 games so far, but won just two of those. In MoneyPucks’ Goals Saved Above Expected stat Campbell and Stuart Skinner rank 64th and 71st, respectively, of 71 qualifying goalies.

The situation became untenable and Holland had to do the unthinkable and waive Campbell 16 months after signing him for five years and $25 million. Calvin Pickard, who had the unfortunate task of backstopping the historically awful 2016-17 Colorado Avalanche the last time he was an NHL starter, is up in Campbell’s place, but everyone would be surprised if the Oilers ran with a Pickard-Skinner duo the rest of the way.

However, as we know, the goalie trade market is a quiet one, especially this early in the season. The Oilers are more or less capped out, able to create a few hundred thousand dollars more of space if they send Pickard back down, and no one is going to do Holland any favours by taking a contract or sending a goalie to Edmonton without squeezing out as much return as they can from a team in distress.

Maybe things settle for a bit. Or maybe the Oilers will drop Thursday’s game to the San Jose Sharks and panic will really set in. Either way, Holland will be looking over all his options now, but we wouldn’t expect him to go halfway and acquire another unproven goalie. So, with that in mind, we look at three netminders with different levels of impact who the Oilers could be thinking of as a future No. 1…

Jake Allen, Montreal Canadiens

Funny enough, Allen was a reasonable option for the Oilers when they hit that rut in 2022, but he had sustained an injury in January that was going to keep him out eight weeks, and thus off Edmonton’s radar. Today, Allen is in the first year of a two-year extension he signed with the Habs that accounts for $3.85 million against the cap. As far as cap considerations go, this would be the easiest to fit in.

Allen’s been one of Montreal’s positives in the early going. He had a .927 save percentage and 2.72 GAA in his first five starts before a Tuesday blowup against Tampa Bay — in which he was pulled 13:50 into the game after allowing four goals on nine shots — brought his numbers back to earth at .910 and 3.35. But he was the team’s player of the month in October.

In 32 Thoughts this week, Elliotte Friedman noted the Oilers have talked to the Canadiens about Allen, though nothing seemed imminent. There was also this:

“During previous conversations with GM Ken Holland, he has always maintained that, if you are going to make a change in goal, you must be convinced it is an actual upgrade when giving up serious assets.“

The Oilers’ goaltending has been at the bottom of the league for the first month so anything is an improvement at this point, but how much of a guarantee is the 33-year-old Allen to be the ultimate fix? On top of having to find a contract to send for the money to work (Connor Brown?) the Oilers would surely have to send the Canadiens a worthwhile asset to get them to budge. Allen has another year of control so Kent Hughes will be in no rush to move him and completely give the reins to Sam Montembault and Cayden Primeau.

What do we think that asset is? A first-rounder? A second-rounder? One of their top prospects? And at what point will the Oilers have to throw caution to the wind and just pay up whatever price to get the goalie they think will settle the situation once and for all?

Jordan Binnington, St. Louis Blues

This week we’ve written about why the next seven games are critical to Edmonton’s season, because if you fall too far back too early the odds quickly turn against you reaching the playoffs. However in 2019 the St. Louis Blues were last in the league at the start of January, but went on a tear the rest of the way and ultimately won the Stanley Cup.

The X-Factor in that turnaround was the ascension of Jordan Binnington, who had shown good numbers in the AHL for a couple seasons but had very little NHL experience at that time. He made his first start of the season Jan. 7 and from there went 24-5-1 with a .930 save percentage and 1.83 GAA.

Now, the Oilers are surely hoping Skinner can be their Binnington this season (or hold out faint hope 31-year-old Pickard surprises)…but, failing that, could Binnington be their Binnington?

This possibility was also addressed in 32 Thoughts, with Friedman writing:

“I do think they are contemplating things, looking at several options. There’ve been reports of Jordan Binnington, but unless the Blues are giving up on the season, they need to replace him and won’t be taking Campbell. Binnington’s also a $6-million cap hit, which would take quite a bit of finagling. Not impossible, but challenging.“

There’s also this: Binnington’s numbers have been souring each season since that Cup win. Here’s how he’s finished from 2018-19 through last season:

He’s had a better start in 2023-24, with Binnington ranking 11th in MoneyPucks’ GSAE, though he has allowed four or more goals in three of his past four starts now. That $6-million cap hit runs through 2026-27 so it’d be a gamble on a player who, yes, has won a Stanley Cup, but is no guarantee to be the answer.

St. Louis is 5-5-1, has the 29th ranked offence, is bottom seven in shots against per game and missed the playoffs last season, when the Blues played the role of trade deadline seller. They may be more open to this a little later on if things keep slipping away, but again the question is on price and how confident Edmonton is in Binnington.

Juuse Saros, Nashville Predators

Now we’re in Crazytown.

Saros makes $5 million this season and next season before he’d become UFA eligible. The Predators, 5-7-0 through 12 games, missed the playoffs last season, were swept in Round 1 the season before and, honestly, had no business qualifying for that spot if not for Saros’ heroics.

With Barry Trotz now in the GM chair, the Predators are in the dangerous mushy middle where the ceiling doesn’t seem high enough to win, but the roster is probably still too good to land at the bottom of the table.

Last season when the Predators were trading, their big asset Matias Ekholm was sent to Edmonton for a package including a first-round pick and he turned into exactly what the Oilers needed — today he’s their best defenceman. If Nashville gets to a point where they feel they have to sell off a good player again, their most valuable assets would be Saros and Roman Josi, who has a full no-move clause and another four seasons on his deal.

Saros doesn’t have any trade protection at all but, as one of the premier goalies in the NHL, would cost the sort of package we never see a goalie traded for. It could be shocking how high it goes. Maybe this could turn into blockbuster territory, with Edmonton squeezing out another blueliner or depth forward from the Preds?

This from Friedman’s notes:

“We will see where this goes, including if the Oilers look at one major trade to deal with multiples issues. For example, a goalie and a defenceman. Or, a goalie and a depth forward with some edge. Another thing to remember: Canada is on a lot of no-trade lists.”

This is the moonshot and, probably, the long-shot move, but it’s also the one that would guarantee the Oilers get a stable upgrade in net. How much would you give up for two runs with Saros behind these Oilers, knowing full well it has to be a haul for the Predators?