If you looked around the social media landscape in 2016, you would have been able to find someone to debate about which sniper should go first overall at that year’s draft: Auston Matthews or Patrik Laine?
While Matthews was the expected top choice for a much longer run of time, Laine made a late charge with awards in the WJC, Finnish League playoffs and senior mens’ World Championship. He was to step right into the NHL after playing against Finland’s top pros and, as an NHL rookie, did finish with 36 goals and a better goals-per-game rate than Matthews.
Today, there is no debate between the two: Matthews is a league MVP, Rocket Richard Trophy winner three times over and now captain of the Maple Leafs. Laine is on to his third team after Monday’s trade to the Montreal Canadiens and scored just six times in 2023-24, held to 18 games by a shoulder injury and time spent in the Player Assistance Program.
But, healthy and at his best, Laine is still a dangerous goal scorer. In 2021-22 to 2022-23, Laine scored 48 goals in 111 games for Columbus and had a 1.37 goals per 60 minutes of ice time rate that was comparable to Kyle Connor, Elias Pettersson and Aleksander Barkov. In his first three seasons with Columbus, Laine still scored at a 0.38 goals per game pace, good for 43rd in the league.
Given where his career began in Winnipeg, those recent numbers contributed to questions about Laine’s ability to still produce at an elite, consistent level. But he was still producing.
There were other circumstances, of course. Injuries limited him and a broken clavicle in 2023 and a setback later on led Laine to getting shoulder surgery this off-season. He also spent time in the player assistance program to help get through some of the mental struggles that were being brought on.
“Most importantly it’s been just about Patty as a person more than Patty the hockey player. Obviously one thing I’ve noticed is that when you’re not enjoying whatever you do you’re probably not going to be able to perform and that’s kinda where I’ve been at. I haven’t been enjoying myself for a while, but now I’m happier than ever off the ice obviously and done a lot of work on myself,” Laine said Monday. I feel super excited about playing in a new place with new teammates in a new city.”
At Monday’s press conference, Laine also said his shoulder feels powerful and that he’s been skating again.
From 2016-17 to 2019-20, his first four years in the NHL as a Winnipeg Jet, Laine was a top 10 goal scorer in the league, netting 138 in 305 games, tied with Patrick Kane and John Tavares for seventh overall. With two years remaining on a contract that comes with an $8.7 million cap hit, the Canadiens had the flexibility to take on the full value, add an extra second-round pick in 2025 to do it, and see if Laine can get back to the player he once was.
If it works, it could help launch the team to its next stage.
In return for Laine, the Canadiens moved Jordan Harris off a deep group of young blueliners built up through the draft. That position was beginning to get full in Montreal and it was about to get harder to afford every defenceman the opportunity they deserved. Harris played 56 games for Montreal last season and now will look to build on that in Columbus.
With more on both sides of the trade, we turn to our scout, Jason Bukala:
SCOUT’S ANALYSIS
When I first received news that Montreal had acquired Laine from Columbus my initial reaction was how polarizing the acquisition could be, and the wide range of possible outcomes. Which version of Patrik Laine is Montreal receiving?
The good and the bad
• Laine’s an elite shooter. He’s one of the few NHL snipers who can beat goalies clean from all angles in the offensive zone. He can be a difference maker. His best shift will bring Montreal supporters out of their seats.
• Conversely, his effort on and off the puck can range wildly, and sometimes on the same shift. His late offensive zone exits and lack of attention to detail defensively will, at times, frustrate the Habs’ coaching staff and fans alike.
Montreal’s blue line
Montreal’s front office has done a fantastic job drafting and developing their prospects and they are especially loaded with defencemen. Trading Jordan Harris to Columbus would not have been possible without the organizational depth they have at the position.
Here’s a look at the defencemen Montreal still have to choose from as they assemble their best possible roster at training camp in the fall:
Mike Matheson David Savard
Kaiden Guhle Justin Barron
Lane Hutson Arber Xhekaj
Logan Mailloux David Reinbacher
I’m not suggesting Montreal’s defence lands in the top half of the league — several of the names on the roster are still developing players — but there’s enough here to be excited about and every one of their prospects is tracking positively.
Trade value
One potentially under-the-radar part of the trade is Montreal receiving a second-round pick from Columbus in 2026. I have a hard time envisioning the Blue Jackets suddenly becoming a playoff team in the next two years. I suppose it’s possible, but that pick should end up landing between slots 33-40.
I understand the reason why Columbus had to send Montreal the second-round pick. Montreal absorbing the entirety of Laine’s $8.7 million AAV for the next two years undoubtedly meant the Jackets had to relinquish a higher draft pick than if they retained money. But that saves Columbus actual dollars (Laine is to receive $9.1 million in salary both seasons) and provides the Jackets some cap flexibility to re-invest.
To Columbus: Jordan Harris
I believe Harris has a solid NHL career ahead of him. He isn’t a punishing big body defenceman (listed at 5-foot-11, 189 pounds) but he moves well, has the hockey IQ to be trusted in a variety of roles and gets in the lane to block shots.
Harris could end up skating in a top-four role in the future. He’s best described as a two-way defenceman who will occasionally chip in offensively. Harris averaged 17:28 of ice time in 56 games played last season. All of his ice time came at even strength and the penalty kill.
To Montreal: Patrik Laine
I mentioned the good and the bad at the outset of my analysis, but is there a chance I’m actually being too hard on Laine?
Consider the following:
• In Laine’s first 45 games played in Columbus he scored only 10 goals and 11 assists for an average of .47 points per game. He was also a minus-29 defensively.
• In his next 129 games played he produced 54 goals and 63 assists for an average of .91 points per game. Again he was a minus-29.
The Canadiens averaged 2.83 goals per game last season, 26th in the league, and their power play ended with a 17.5 per cent success rate, which ranked 27th.
Nick Suzuki led Montreal with 33 goals last season, followed by Cole Caufield with 28 and Juraj Slafkovsky with 20. The addition of a hopefully motivated Laine should improve the offence at both even strength and on the power play, and give opponents more to think about when game planning versus Montreal’s top two lines.
Final thoughts on the trade
I’ve said this several times before: High-end offensive talents need to only be average defensively for me to trust in their elite element. But I also need for scorers to find a way to push through checks and score in high-leverage games.
Laine is still just 26 years young. It’s hard to believe. It feels like he’s been in the league for an eternity. Sooner or later every player either elevates and finds the level they have shown in their most successful campaigns, or can’t seem to break bad habits.
Breaking down Laine’s statistics in Columbus proves he remains a more than capable offensive threat when engaged. I’m banking on Montreal’s coaching staff and teammates to provide Laine the culture he needs to bring out his best.
If Laine can average the same .91 points per game he registered for Columbus over parts of the past three seasons in Montreal and marginally improve his detail in all three zones defensively, this trade will be a huge win for the Canadiens.