When the Toronto Maple Leafs started the season 4-4-2, it was treated like they were 0-8-2, given the expectations they were carrying. The team had racked up 115 points the previous season and pushed the Lightning to the brink before Tampa swept the next round and went on to the Stanley Cup Final.
“Will the Leafs be good?” didn’t seem to be a relevant question heading into this season (we assumed). Instead, “How good” and “How would they be different from the versions of themselves that fell short?” seemed pertinent.
As someone who covers the team on a daily basis, I wasn’t surprised the Leafs got past their slow start, but I was watching for answers to numerous questions.
As we sit here today, the Leafs are on the verge of their most important stretch of hockey. Not because they’re in some crucial standings race (surprise, it’s gonna be Tampa Bay in Round 1 again), but because, like Chunky in I Think You Should Leave, the Leafs still haven’t figured out exactly what their thing is yet. Lines, special teams, even their goaltending still carries question marks.
With less than 30 per cent of their regular season games remaining – and the trade deadline one week away – it feels like the right time to assess which pre-season questions the Leafs have answered about themselves, and which remain.
ANSWERS
Will they have a goalie who can replace Jack Campbell?
YES. As much as Jack Campbell wasn’t a Vezina winner the season before, he was at least a serviceable guy who could make the saves he was supposed to make, by and large. Ilya Samsonov has capably filled that void. This doesn’t say, “He’s a guy you can trust in playoffs!” but it does say they won’t have taken a step back in the crease, and there’s a chance Samsonov is better than Campbell was.
Will they find replacements for Ilya Mikheyev and Ondrej Kase?
YES. Calle Jarnkrok is quietly on pace for 18 goals and 40 points. Newly added depth guy Noel Acciari is on pace for 16 goals and just under 30 points. Their combined goal total is one off what Toronto got from Mikheyev and Kase last season, and you’d expect Acciari to be more effective and available than Kase was for the Leafs. Heading into the playoffs they’ve, at worst, squared off from those losses.
Can they tighten up their looser playing style?
YES. In 2021-22, the Leafs finished second in goals for, and 19th in goals against. That’s a little more “outscore your problems” than preferred. This season, they’re seventh in goals for and sixth in goals against. Tampa Bay was first in the NHL in scoring goals for three years before the Lightning dropped to 11th and … won the Cup. They prioritized defending. They became more well-rounded, and the Leafs appear to have done that as well.
Now …
UNANSWERED QUESTIONS
What’s the power-play solution?
You can laugh at the idea that the NHL’s fifth-best power play “needs a solution,” but as I’ve written about before, it has fallen off precipitously in the post-season (and the months leading up to it) in the past. Is it going to be Morgan Rielly at the top with no Ryan O’Reilly?
How serious is the five-forward option? Will they use it in the playoffs if they can’t generate offence in one game? Two games? Four?
Last season, the Leafs’ special teams were:
First in power play, eighth in penalty killing.
This year they’re fifth in power play, 11th in penalty killing.
This buried them in Round 1 against Tampa last year. Are the Leafs going to be better there?
Is John Tavares going to play wing? Or will they go with three big-name centres?
I’m sure the team would like to experiment with this, but again, they’ve only got about 20 games to do so, assuming they’d like a run of games with their group intact before Game 1 of the playoffs. They’re going to need to see them together, and apart, then apart with different complementary players. They’re about to play their fourth game with Tavares and O’Reilly on a line. They still need answers here about whether this is temporary or their real, best look.
Is Matt Murray going to be available, and if so, what will his play look like?
It’s not just this current injury – which is an ankle issue and a huge deal for a goalie – but can this guy be available for the Leafs? And with such little playing time, can he be good if he is available? And, finally, can the team get answers to this before the deadline, because if not, they may need to trade for a goalie as insurance. Those two questions (can he play and can he play well) may be too big to overlook on a wish and a prayer.
Is Rasmus Sandin going to be a part of the Leafs’ six in Game 1?
I don’t think, in a perfect world, the Leafs have Sandin-Liljegren as a third pair in the playoffs against Tampa Bay, as the former has struggled against heavy forechecks at times this season. Will they bring someone else in and push Sandin into the press box for Game 1? Is it possible he could be a part of a hockey trade to improve the team at that spot? There’s more to be done with the Leafs D corps in the weeks ahead, and it feels like he’ll be the guy most affected.
Do they finally have a fourth line for the playoffs?
Over the past few playoffs, the Leafs’ fourth line has been an absolute mishmash. Against Columbus, it featured Kyle Clifford, Pierre Engvall and Jason Spezza, which didn’t have much identity. Nor did Joe Thornton-Adam Brooks-Spezza (with some Simmonds mixed in) against Montreal. Kase-Colin Blackwell-Spezza wasn’t exactly a force against Tampa Bay.
Teams that win Cups have a fourth line that can thrive in few minutes. Zach Aston-Reese-Noel Acciari-Alex Kerfoot has been dominant through three games. Is that the answer this time around?
And, finally:
Is Auston Matthews going to be at his best?
He’s 6-foot-3 and 210 pounds, defends like crazy, wins faceoffs and will threaten 40 goals this season. Those are pretty desirable qualities in a player, I’d say. But last season he was the World’s Best Player, and he took over games. If he’s taken a step back, that’s a significant blow to the Leafs’ plan of powering through great teams with their elite players at the top. Matthews has been good, but can he rediscover the Hart Trophy-level player he was last season?
There’s still hockey left to be played and answers to be found. But the calendar starts to flip pretty quick at this time of year, and you’d like to know as much as possible about your group before heading into playoffs.
Will the Leafs get the answers they need in time?