Why are the Senators so good at home, yet so bad when on the road?

OTTAWA — November is the time of the hockey season when small sample sizes turn into trends. A developing trendline for the Ottawa Senators has been their inability to win away from home.

“Sometimes you get what you deserve, and we got it.” said head coach Travis Green after their 5-1 loss to the Buffalo Sabres Tuesday night. “We got what we deserved tonight.”

Through 12 games the Senators are 1-5-0 on the road and it goes deeper than just the losses. There’s been a multitude of factors including poor goaltending, ineffective special teams, lack of discipline and plenty of untimely goals.

It starts with your best players. After Buffalo dominated the beginning of the game, Senators captain Brady Tkachuk picked a fight with Jordan Greenway after he hit Tim Stützle. At that point the Senators had been bombarded by Buffalo in a scoreless first period. Tkachuk’s fight earned an instigator penalty that immediately led to Buffalo opening the scoring on the power play.

The lack of discipline extended to the Senators’ defensive breakdowns. Bowen Byram scored 17 seconds into the second period and again 21 seconds into the third. Thompson scored just 16 seconds after Byram’s second goal.

“I would say it’s uncharacteristic for us to come out and kind of lay an egg at the start of each period like that, but we have to fight through it,” said Travis Hamonic.

But it’s the untimely goals that kill.

It happened in Las Vegas when the Senators gave up two late goals to snatch a loss from the jaws of a victory. And then again, in a different fashion, in Colorado where they gave up a goal in the last two minutes of both the first and second periods.

The Senators “took some positives” out of their game against Vegas as well as the New York Ranger game at the start of November, as building teams sometimes do. And against Buffalo, Green said the play was closer than the yawning 5-1 score indicated. But…

 “At the end of the day, close isn’t good enough,” he said.

To be fair to Green, the Senators have out-chanced opponents 390 to 339 on the road at five-on-five while having the 4^th worst shooting percentage at 7.7%, which will likely regress to the mean. In other words, some of their road ineffectiveness has been some poor breaks. They were “goalied” by the Rangers’ Igor Shesterkin, throwing 41 shots but only scoring once. In Buffalo, Adam Gaudette hit the post in the second period when the game was 2-1. There has been an element of misfortune. The Senators likely won’t have a .166 winning percentage on the road all season.

But look at the history. Since the 2021-22 season, the Senators are 33-49-3 on the road contrasted with a 50-33-3 at home. That’s the difference between a bottom-five team and a playoff contender.

You can see it at both ends of the ice.

                              Data provided thanks to Sportsnet Stats.

A main component has been the porous goaltending on the road. The home versus road save percentage is striking for the Senators.

                            Data provided thanks to Sportsnet Stats.

The Senators’ newly extended netminder, Linus Ullmark, has an 0-4-0 record on the road with an .850 save percentage. On Tuesday he would want both of Byrum’s goals back. The first went straight through his pads and the second was a long shot from the point that beat his glove hand.

According to Money Puck, Ullmark allowed -1.35 goals-saved above expected on Tuesday night. He needs to be better on the road.

There’s a similar story when it comes to special teams. The sizzling power play at the Canadian Tire Centre goes dead on the road. An “OK” penalty kill drops dead.

                   Data provided thanks to Sportsnet Stats.

On Tuesday, the Senators failed to capitalize on their three power plays while allowing two goals on the penalty kill.

Worrying Penalty kill

The penalty kill has been worse on the road, but it hasn’t really gelled at home either.

When Green joined the Senators, he switched up the penalty kill formation from man-to-man to a zonal defending strategy. It was an adjustment for many of the players.

“It was pretty uncomfortable in training camp, but we got some reps at it,” said defenceman Nick Jensen at the beginning of the season.

“It’s different the way we kill,” said Jensen. “There’s a meaning behind it, of why we do it. It’s a little more protecting the middle and not letting anything get inside. So, your immediate reaction when people start to kind of creep in you want to strike at them and get them out of there. But we’re more protecting the middle and want to let them take shots from the outside.”

Buffalo’s first goal Tuesday night came after a miscue by Jensen behind his own net. It was more of a mistake than a breakdown. But later, the Senators’ zonal coverage was exploited by Buffalo. When both Claude Giroux and Josh Norris impetuously rushed up to their own blueline to pressure the puck, it allowed for a Buffalo 4-on-2 to develop. Tage Thompson made a cross-ice pass to J.J. Peterka, who rifled home the Sabres’ fifth goal of the game.

The Senators have allowed the fifth most shots per game on their penalty kill this season, while having the 22^nd-ranked penalty kill overall in the league.  

Time for Zub

Particularly on the road, the Senators have been missing their steady top pairing defenceman, Artem Zub.

Zub has been practising with the team this week and is close to a return.

“Doing great,” said Green on Zub’s recovery. “Just feel like he needs another couple practices and a couple skates.”

In his absence, Travis Hamonic has joined Jake Sanderson on the first pair for nine games, and they’ve struggled, getting outshot 169 to 143 at five-on-five and outscored seven to one. Last season, the pair of Sanderson and Zub outshot opponents 878 to 758 for 53.7% of the shot share.

“You know what you’re going to get from him every single night,” said Sanderson about Zub. “He’s hard, he’s strong, he moves pucks well. He’s excellent in all aspects.”

A healthy Zub would greatly improve a defence that is in desperate need of elevated play on their top pair.