There is no more difficult position to forecast in fantasy hockey, and in general for that matter, than goalies.
The unpredictability from year to year makes drafting a goaltender challenging, as the last thing you want to do is spend a high pick on someone who’s headed for a nightmare season.
It’s become even tougher to navigate as the netminding landscape has changed in recent years. There are fewer and fewer bonafide No. 1s in the league, as teams continue to trend toward tandems that share the crease.
With only a handful of goalies you can really count on season after season, there’s a strategy gaining more and more steam in the fantasy hockey world known as “Zero G.” It’s essentially drafting goalies very late who may have some upside or combing the waiver wire early in the season for potential gems.
The idea here is to use your early picks on skaters who are more of a sure thing because you won’t be able to find someone comparable in the later rounds, whereas with goalies you often can.
For instance, last year Thatcher Demko was going in the fifth round on average, but ended up having nowhere near as much value as Stuart Skinner, Filip Gustavsson or Pheonix Copley, all of whom you probably could’ve snagged off waivers.
It’s also a lot harder to move on from someone you drafted in the first five or six rounds. It would’ve been tough to drop Demko last year because if you took him fairly high, you’d have so much invested in him. Sometimes you keep hanging on in the hopes a struggling goalie will turn it around, but it’s sinking your team in the process.
If you spend very late picks or waiver adds on goalies, it’s easy to drop them if it doesn’t work out. There’s little risk for a huge reward and the top half of your roster will be more stacked with skaters.
Here’s a personal example to help illustrate this. I’m a fan of Zero G, and last season I drafted Anton Forsberg, Philipp Grubauer and Cal Petersen in the final few rounds, in what was nothing short of a disaster on almost every front. But … the rest of my lineup carried me through the first few weeks because I used all my early-round picks on skaters and I eventually turned those three into Adin Hill, Jeremy Swayman and Pyotr Kochetkov.
I finished third in a league of 14 and lost a close matchup in the semifinals, despite arguably one of the worst goalie drafts in the history of fantasy hockey.
There are definitely some challenges with this strategy and, as I like to say, you have to be comfortable being uncomfortable sometimes with your goalies to go this route. Plus, there isn’t always a one-stop fix that works for the rest of the season. You may have to utilize someone for a few weeks to get another option that will eventually emerge.
It really helps if you scout options in advance who may be on the cusp of having major fantasy value if they can take advantage of an opportunity or if something breaks their way.
The criteria I usually use to identify a good candidate is a goalie who may have a starter in front of them without a firm grasp on the top job, and who’s also playing behind a good team that will help you in the win column. A strong defensive team is ideal, but you can’t always have everything.
Here are some under-the-radar candidates for this season who might make good Zero G options:
Akira Schmid, New Jersey Devils
Schmid looked really strong in the 18 games he played last season and followed that up by briefly stealing the job from Vitek Vanecek in the playoffs.
That should show you how much confidence the Devils have in him and, given that Vanecek really faded down the stretch in 2022-23, the door should at least be open a crack for Schmid to take over. I’d expect the Devils to be a top-five team again, so Schmid could be a huge contributor to your squad if he gets decent playing time in New Jersey.
Pyotr Kochetkov, Carolina Hurricanes
Kochetkov is less under the radar this season after an impressive showing in a small sample size last year, but with Frederik Andersen and Antti Raanta returning, he’ll probably again be starting the year third on the depth chart. What Kochetkov has going for him, though, is that Raanta and Andersen both carry significant injury risk, meaning Kochetkov will likely get quite a bit of playing time just by default. Raanta has played only 30 games once in the past five seasons and Andersen has missed more than half the season in two of the past three years.
The Canes are also one of the best defensive teams and arguably the most goalie-friendly in the league. Heck, they’ve even won with a Zamboni driver in net. Even if Kochetkov isn’t on the roster full time this season, he’s probably still going to be a big asset for stretches.
Devon Levi, Buffalo Sabres
Levi may be the biggest wild card on this list.
We’ve seen very little of him at the NHL level, and for him to have value this season, a few things would have to be true. The Sabres are going to have to be much better, Levi will have to earn the starting job, and hold it for a significant part of the season. That won’t be easy because Eric Comrie and Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen are still around and Levi would probably benefit from some time in the AHL to refine his game.
Still, Levi has the most upside of the three and if the Sabres take a big jump like the Devils did last season, he might end up being a steal.
Joseph Woll, Toronto Maple Leafs
I see parallels with Woll and what Skinner turned into last season. I’m not saying Woll is going to have the same value as Skinner did a year ago, but they are at least in similar situations.
Woll has someone in front of him who doesn’t have a huge track record as a starter in Ilya Samsonov, and even if Samsonov does continue to play well, he’s never played more than 44 games in a season. The likelihood of him starting 60 games suddenly seems very low.
That means Woll is probably going to play around 35 games behind a very strong team in a worst-case scenario and have a chance to steal more playing time if Samsonov falters in a best-case scenario.
Wolf is still third on the Flames depth chart, but for how long? Jacob Markstrom is coming off a major down year and Dan Vladar feels pretty expendable at this point, with Wolf ready to take the next step. He was named the AHL’s best goalie in each of the past two seasons and won the overall MVP last season as well. There’s not much more for him to do there in regards to his development.
The biggest impediment for Wolf is going to be Markstrom, who, despite coming off a rough year, is still one of the few workhorses left in the league in goal. Former coach Darryl Sutter played Markstrom a ton, but there’s a chance new Calgary head coach Ryan Huska won’t be as loyal.
Joel Hofer, St. Louis Blues
All Hofer has to do this season for a shot at decent playing time is beat out a goalie whose numbers have consistently plummeted since the Blues won the Stanley Cup in 2019. Jordan Binnington only has a loose grasp on the No. 1 job at best at this point, so there is an opportunity sitting in front of Hofer to take it. Hofer looked good in a brief callup late last season, giving many fantasy hockey enthusiasts the hope that he is ready for the job.
How you feel about Hofer this season probably depends on how confident you are in the Blues. If St. Louis can bounce back from a down year, Hofer should have a chance to be rosterable for a good chunk of the season. I think stealing starts from Binnington will be less of an issue.
Jack Campbell, Edmonton Oilers
I’m likely higher on Campbell for next season than most for a few reasons. First, Skinner has only 64 NHL games under his belt and, as good as he was in the regular season, he was equally bad in the playoffs.
I don’t think his grip on the job is as firm as people think and Campbell does have the big contract, so the Oilers are going to keep giving him chances.
You could probably get Campbell very late in drafts this season and the team in front of him is very strong, so if he even bounces back somewhat, he’s going to have value.
I’d bet the starts between Campbell and Skinner are closer to 50/50 this season.