Canada's future is bright, but present is everything at Tokyo 2020

International basketball can be cruel and strange things happen.

Canadian basketball fans know this in their bones.

That’s what makes it fun and what makes the high points – when they come – so exhilarating. Success sometimes feels less like painting a masterpiece than it does the sense of relief you get from when you don’t get crushed by an on-coming tractor trailer.

The lows?

So often the question you’re left with is some version of: where – exactly — did that kick in the gut come from?

The Canadian senior women’s team is left trying to assess the damage as they lost a critical game to favoured Spain in 76-66 to conclude play in Group A with 1-2 record.

It doesn’t end their dreams of standing on the Olympic podium after missing out in 2012 in London and 2016 in Rio.

But it means they don’t control their destiny. And even if they get the breaks they need to squeak into the quarterfinals, it will be as a seven or eighth seed and possible matchups with a nearly insurmountable Team USA or another world power at the top of their game.

Canada players huddle during a women’s basketball game against Spain at the 2020 Summer Olympics, Wednesday, July 28, 2021, in Saitama, Japan. (Brian Snyder/Pool Photo via AP)

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The most likely scenarios that would allow Canada to advance are if the USA downs France by 15 points or more, if Australia beats Puerto Rico by less than 24 points, or if Nigeria downs Japan by less than 41 points.

So their tournament isn’t over.

How did Canada put themselves in this position after arriving in Tokyo ranked fourth in the world and with high hopes of advancing to the medal round for the first time since the senior women finished fourth in 1984?

The loss to No. 2-ranked Spain was obviously a big part of the story. A win Saturday night would have assured them as one of the two teams to advance from their group.

But if things don’t work out, the autopsy will look long and hard at the guts of their tournament-opening loss to Serbia, when Canada forced an astounding 28 turnovers in a 40-minute game and somehow lost by four points.

It’s hard to do but Canada somehow managed it thanks to shooting a miserable 38 per cent from the floor, including 5-of-24 from three and a shaky 15-of-24 at the free-throw line.

While Canada had pinned a lot of their hopes on their trio of WNBA players – Kia Nurse, Natalie Achonwa, and Bridget Carleton – the early returns weren’t there, as they combined to shoot 9-of-30 in the opener.

The ship appeared to right itself against South Korea as Carleton was outstanding, Nurse more herself and Achonwa looking more comfortable playing on a recently sprained knee.

Canada cruised to a 74-53 win and the hope was that they were hitting their stride in time for their meeting with Spain, undefeated heading into Saturday night.

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But the opposite proved the case. Once again scoring proved the issue as Canada again shot 38 per cent from three and again gave away points at the free-throw line, converting on just 13-of-19 chances. Spain was in control from the start as Canada gave up a 12-4 run at the end of the first quarter and trailed 23-13 to start the second.

An inspired second quarter followed where Canada’s trademark defensive intensity kicked in and kept the game close, but Spain was able to respond with key buckets every time Canada tried to get in position to even the score.

Canada cut Spain’s lead to four midway through the second quarter but couldn’t get any closer and trailed 40-34 at half.

When Spain started the third quarter on a 9-0 run, it looked like a blowout was brewing. Given the significance of point differential in international basketball, it appeared Canada was about to have their Olympic dreams crash and burn.

Losing to Spain would be one thing; but losing so badly that Canada wouldn’t be able advance as one of two wild-card teams – where point differential is an important tiebreaker – would have been especially painful.

But head coach Thomaidis extended Canada’s defence, pressing Spain all over the floor and giving long minutes to two of her youngest players – 22-year-old point guard Shaina Pellington, a speedster from the University of Arizona and 20-year-old Laeticia Amihere – a lightning-quick, six-foot-one do-everything forward playing at the University of South Carolina.

The defensive pressure worked as intended and a 9-2 run had Canada trailing by six with 6:47 to play, but that was as close as they could get.

Canada did well to avoid the blowout and the consequences that would bring, but their goals for this event were grander than having to wait on pins and needles in order to advance. There was hope that Korea could pull an upset over Serbia, which would allow Canada to advance as the second team from Group A but Spain was able to hold them off Sunday morning for the 65-61 win. Now Canada has to wait until the wee hours of Monday morning to learn if one of their other routes to the quarterfinals plays out.

Canada’s Kia Nurse (5), center, reacts after losing the ball during women’s basketball preliminary round game against Spain at the 2020 Summer Olympics, Sunday, Aug. 1, 2021, in Saitama, Japan. (Charlie Neibergall/AP)

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Regardless of what happens, the larger point remains: teams that have medal aspirations as Canada does can’t afford to have their destiny decided by outside forces.

And if they do catch a break? They need to find a way to score under pressure — specifically the likes of Nurse, Carleton, Anchonwa need to find their games — and as a whole the roster needs to convert their free throws a higher rate than something in the mid-60’s, three-pointers at better than 28 per cent and shoot better than 38 per cent from the floor overall.

But if this is indeed the end of Canada’s tournament, it will be a heartbreak for the countless people around the program who have poured everything they have into it for the past five years with an eye towards finishing the job that they couldn’t in 2012 or 2016.

The women’s field is too tightly bunched for Canada’s path to a medal to have been considered a lock, and their group in particular was a challenge — with Serbia and Spain always competitive and Korea no pushover either.

But to have the program elevate to this level and simply play less than their best when they needed to most as a collective will be tough to swallow.

It will be a disappointing end to the national team careers of Kim Gaucher and Miranda Ayim who – along with Achonwa – were hoping for more in their third Olympic appearance. It’s another Olympic disappointment for the likes of Nurse, Nirra Fields and Neyo Raincock-Ekunwe, returnees from 2016 who were determined to avenge an excruciating quarter-finals loss to France. It could also mean the end of Thomaidis’ term with the national team after nine seasons as head coach and 21 years on staff.

There is hope for the future – Canada’s best performance against France came from Amihere, Pellington and 24-year-old Carleton. Nurse is still just 25. Aaliyah Edwards – who has barely seen the floor – is 19.

But this time around, the present was everything. And, if Canada has indeed squandered what they hoped and believed was their best chance to win the first Olympic medal in the program’s history, it will be a cruel outcome and maybe a strange one, and for those that care, a painful one to be sure.