Hope is a powerful thing. It fuels big dreams and grand visions. And as long as there are no hard-and-fast deadlines, it springs eternal.
In that context, men’s basketball at the Olympics is still a competition. It’s still a tournament where all 12 teams enter on equal footing, and gold is something each of them can aspire to win.
It’s a pipe dream, of course. In a tumultuous world full of chaos, uncertainty, water-borne pathogens and virus-laden mosquitoes, one certainty remains: The United States will win the gold medal in basketball. (Two of them, actually. As dominant as the men’s team is, the women are even better.)
It wasn’t supposed to be like this. Not now. Not in the seventh competition since the powers that be opened the event to NBA players and the U.S. sent a roster full of Hall of Famers to Barcelona in 1992 to sign autographs, pose for pictures and blow out opposing countries.
Why were the best U.S. pros included in the international game? “There were two reasons,” explained FIBA secretary-general Boris Stankovic later. “For years, we had professional players from other countries—the only ones who could not play were NBA players. That seems immoral. [And] in 1936, the U.S. was represented by Amateur Athletic Union players,” Stankovic continued. “They dominated for a while, but the world caught up. Then the U.S. changed to college players, and they dominated for a while, but the world caught up. Now NBA players are dominating, but one day—not in my lifetime, but one day—the world will catch up.”
There was hope on that front for a while. After easily sweeping to gold with Dream Teams I and II in 1992 and 1996, the U.S. encountered some resistance in 2000 in Sydney. Lithuania led the U.S. by one with 1:36 left in the semifinal, and missed a three at the buzzer that would have eliminated the Americans from gold-medal contention. Then, in the final against France, the U.S. led by just four with four minutes left.
And it turned out those near misses were just the beginning: The next six years were the dark days for American basketball. At the 2002 World Championships, they finished sixth. In Athens in 2004, they dropped two games in the round robin to Lithuania and Puerto Rico before losing to Argentina in the semifinal.
Was the world closing the gap? Briefly. The Americans’ response was to learn from the countries that were beating them. They established a pool of players that would carry over, year to year. They created a U.S. select program where young NBA players could get exposure to the national team in the summers before being added to the main roster. It was all run under the eye of Duke head coach Mike Krzyzewski, who had the credibility to get NBA players to buy into a game plan that acknowledged the nuances of the international game.
Aside from settling for bronze at the 2006 worlds, the result has been a tidal wave. Since their poor showing in Athens, Team USA is 42-1 in major competitions and has won gold at every World Championships and Olympics dating back to Beijing in 2008.
The result is that heading into Rio, the U.S. is playing for first and the rest of the world is hoping for something to go wrong. “The U.S. is always going to be a powerhouse,” says Australian cornerstone Andrew Bogut. “Early on in the 2000s, they had issues with camaraderie, they picked who they wanted with no camps, and they’ve realized they can’t do that anymore. [Now] when they have the same amount of preparation as other countries, they are clearly the favourites.”
So how does the rest of the world approach it? “Look, you’re not expected to win, so you get a free hit at them,” Bogut says. “If it was a seven-game series for a medal, I’d say the U.S. would never lose, but when it comes to one game, you never know what could happen. All it takes is someone getting hot from three or someone getting hurt. There are a lot of variables in one game, but clearly they’re the favourites year in and year out.”
They will certainly be the favourites going into Rio, although there has been a considerable changing of the guard. It’s expected that LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Paul—a good chunk of the core of the Redeem Team that won gold in 2008—won’t play in Rio. Kobe Bryant is retired, and two-time NBA MVP Steph Curry won’t play this summer either, citing the need to recover from a long, trying season and injuries to his knee and ankle. “That’s a tough choice, because being in the Olympics is a great honour,” said Golden State Warriors coach Steve Kerr. “But for Steph, I think he weighed all the dynamics and realized that a summer of rest would be the best thing for him long-term. And I think that’s the wise choice.”
Losing that many marquee players will sting, but—USA Basketball being what it is—there are always more players to choose from. Curry out? How about the Cleveland Cavaliers’ Kyrie Irving, the man who got the best of Curry in the NBA Finals, or Toronto Raptors guard Kyle Lowry. No James at forward? How about Draymond Green or Paul George, two of the best defensive players in the NBA and knockdown three-point shooters to boot. At centre, Team USA will be rolling with DeMarcus Cousins and DeAndre Jordan, two big men that the rest of the world can’t match.
The U.S. has no plans to relinquish its place on top of the mountain anytime soon. And for the rest of the world, there’s always hope—so long as they’re aiming for second place.
