Sportsnet’s soccer panel offer their picks, predictions and analysis of Wednesday’s UEFA Champions League group stage matches.
Champions League: Group standings | Stories to follow | Players to watch | Top group stage matches
Napoli vs. Arsenal
James Sharman (Sportsnet): People have been expecting Arsenal to fall off its perch all season but it hasn’t happened. In fact, despite settling for a 1-1 draw to Everton on Sunday, the Gunners once again showed a real fight and zest that has been lacking in recent campaigns.
Arsenal leads Group F, and a point against Napoli will be enough to see it through to the knockout stage, while the Italians need a win to have a shot at moving on. In such a tight group, Rafa Benitez’s men need to win, and likely by two goals to ensure advancement. Of course, a tie would also suffice if Marseille were able to pull the shocker and beat Borussia Dortmund.
Arsenal won 2-0 at home to Napoli back in October in a great performance, but this is anything but a done deal. Napoli were held to a 3-3 draw by Udinese on the weekend in Serie A, it’s defence creaking. Marek Hamsik and Valon Behrami are both doubts for this one, and as key pieces they would be major losses. Worth watching will be a reunion for four former members of Real Madrid, as Mesut Ozil locks horns with Gonzalo Higuain, Raul Albiol and Jose Maria Callejon.
Prediction: Arsenal wins 2-1.
Wednesday programming alert: Watch Napoli vs. Arsenal (on Sportsnet), Milan vs. Ajax (on Sportsnet ONE) and Chelsea vs. Steaua Bucuresti (on Sportsnet World). Also, watch these five games exclusively on Sportsnet World Online: Atletico Madrid vs. FC Porto, Austria Wien vs. Zenit Saint Petersburg, Barcelona vs. Celtic, Marseille vs. Borussia Dortmund and Schalke 04 vs. FC Basel . Live coverage begins at 2:30 pm ET/11:30 pm PT. | TV schedule
AC Milan vs. Ajax
Gerry Dobson (Sportsnet): Milan earned a comprehensive win on match-day five over Celtic and now find themselves needing only a draw to advance. But it won’t be easy, and the signs are not good around this team. Their latest setback was a 2-2 draw at Livorno in Serie A. Mario Balotelli scored both their goals, which is good news, but the rest is ugly. That draw was Livorno’s first point since early November. Milan has lost five games already and sits in eighth place in Italy, a whopping 22 points behind leaders Juventus. Defensively they’re not very good and Ajax will take note. Manager Massimiliano Allgeri seems to have no idea who he wants to play in the centre of defence and that’s not good.
Ajax has proven they can get the job done when it matters. Their somewhat surprising win over Barcelona two weeks ago is evidence enough. This is a team bursting with confidence. They’re a strong second in the Eridivese and are coming off back to back wins by a combined score of 8-0. They’ve scored more goals than any other team in the Eridivese and manager Frank DeBoer has gone on record recently to say he’s convinced his club will win the league. They might just beat a struggling Milan as well to book their place in the round of 16.
Prediction: Ajax wins 2-1.
Atletico Madrid vs. FC Porto
Dan Riccio (Sportsnet 590 The FAN): Porto’s round of 16 hopes rest on this match at the Vicente Calderon against an impressive Atletico Madrid. Porto needs a win to even have a chance of qualifying on to the next phase. The trouble with that is Atletico has not lost on their home turf since May 12.
Porto can take comfort in the fact that Atleti may field a lesser squad having already qualified for the next round, however that didn’t stop Los Rojiblancos from causing trouble for Zenit a couple of weeks ago in Russia. The feeling is that Atletico is just a far superior team in this group, and their hard-working style will not be easy for Porto to break down.
Porto coach Paolo Fonseca is in the hot seat. The team just ended a run of six games without a victory, and haven’t looked very impressive throughout this young campaign. It’s a tough task set a struggling squad, and I don’t think they are up for it.
Prediction: A 1-1 draw.
Schalke 04 vs. FC Basel
Thomas Michalakos (sportsnet.ca): Schalke must win to progress into the knockout stage, having failed to build upon a perfect start (two wins) to their European campaign and descending into the depths of elimination after securing a single point from their next three matches. The Royal Blues threw away a sizeable advantage by playing out a scoreless draw in Bucharest two weeks ago. It was made worse by the Swiss champions securing a remarkable double over Chelsea (winning 1-0 home and away) which shifted the pendulum in the visitors’ favour heading into this decisive fixture.
A draw would be enough for Basel to get to the next round for the second time in club history. The RotBlau have proven their giant-killing status in recent years, beating Tottenham on penalties in the Europa League quarter-finals last year and eliminating Manchester United from the Champions League group stage in the previous season. Basel are favoured to go through here. However, Veltins-Arena provides an auspicious environment that obviously favours the hosts, and Schalke must feed off that energy or else the Europa League will be their next destination.
Prediction: A 1-1 draw.
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