Though it failed to collect a single point at the 2023 FIFA World Cup in Qatar, the Canadian men’s team will enter this summer’s Concacaf Gold Cup as one of the genuine top favourites to win the continental competition.
Canada firmly established itself among the top countries in the Concacaf region when it finished in first place in qualifying for last year’s World Cup, winning eight of 14 games with only two losses, and going undefeated against traditional regional heavyweights Mexico, the United States and Honduras.
Now it’s time for the Canadians to prove themselves again at the Gold Cup, a tournament they have won just once, way back in 2000. Luckily for John Herdman’s side, they have a pretty easy route to the knockout round after Friday’s official tournament draw.
Ranked No. 47 in the world by FIFA, Canada was drawn into Group D alongside Guatemala (No. 116) and Cuba (No. 165). Canada’s third Group D adversary will be the still-to-be-determined winner of a preliminary round of qualifying matches: either Trinidad and Tobago (No. 104), Guyana (No. 170), Grenada (No. 175) or non-FIFA member Guadeloupe (unranked).
The 12-nation qualifying competition runs from June 16-20. The Gold Cup kicks off on June 24 and wraps up on July 16.
The other Gold Cup first-round groups are:
- Group A: United States (13), Jamaica (63), Nicaragua (140), Preliminary round winner
- Group B: Mexico (15), Haiti (87), Honduras (80), Qatar (61)
- Group C: Costa Rica (39), Panama (58), El Salvador (75), Preliminary round winner
The Concacaf gods were incredibly kind to Canada during Friday’s draw, which was conducted in Los Angeles at SoFi Stadium, site of the Gold Cup final. Canada was placed in Pot 1 alongside top seeds Mexico, the U.S. and Costa Rica, and was drawn into the weakest of the four groups. Canada avoided drawing the three strongest teams from Pot 2 (Panama, Jamaica and Haiti), the two best nations from Pot 3 (El Salvador and Honduras) and Pot 4’s Qatar, who’ll be competing at this Gold Cup as a special guest.
Mexico wasn’t so fortunate, as it was put into the “Group of Death” against regional stalwarts Honduras, an ever-improving Haiti, and a Qatar team fresh off hosting the World Cup. The U.S. can’t afford to look past two-time Gold Cup finalist Jamaica, while Costa Rica should have its hands full with Panama, who like the Costa Ricans qualified for the World Cup in Qatar.
Herdman won’t admit it publicly because the last thing he wants to do is give Canada’s first-round opponents any extra motivation. But the group stage draw couldn’t have worked out any better for his team. All three games are incredibly winnable against much weaker opponents, all of whom aren’t even ranked in the top 100 in the world.
Canada has won 10 of 13 games against Guatemala (with one draw) dating back to their first meeting in 1977 and has won four in a row. Cuba hasn’t fared much better against Canada, with just two wins in 15 matches. The Cubans have lost six in a row by a combined 20-1. Even if Trinidad (arguably the toughest team in the preliminaries) advances to Group D, its record against Canada is pretty poor: just four wins in 13 meetings.
Herdman’s team has reached a point where it can rightfully consider itself amongst the elite nations of Concacaf, so there’s really no excuse why it shouldn’t take all nine points on offer from the group stage. Anything less would be a letdown, even more so when you consider the Canadians are expected to play a portion of the group stage at Toronto’s BMO Field. The full tournament schedule, including stadium assignments, will be released in the next few days by Concacaf.
The knockout stage of the tournament is when it’ll get very interesting for Canada. Should the three other top seeds win their groups, the Canadians must travel down a tough road in order to win their second Gold Cup: most likely vs. Jamaica in the quarter-finals, with the potential to meet Mexico (in the semis), and either Costa Rica or the U.S. (in the final).
Canada’s near flawless run in the final round of the World Cup qualifiers was impressive, but it came over a seven-month period. That was a marathon. The Gold Cup is a sprint. The games take place in quick succession, giving teams little time to prepare for their next opponent. The margin of error is also much slimmer. This tournament will be a test of Canada’s tactical acumen under Herdman, but also its mental strength and its physical resilience.
Last month, Herdman warned that his team can’t afford to rest on its laurels after its World Cup appearance and said establishing Canada as the “Kings of Concacaf” was the team’s overarching theme in 2023.
“It's about going right back to the top and finishing the end of this year showing that we are the best team in Concacaf. We may not have the biggest player pool. We may not have the biggest budgets. But we'll be the best team and that's our mission," Herdman promised.
They’ll get their chance this summer.
John Molinaro is one of the leading soccer journalists in Canada, having covered the game for over 20 years for several media outlets, including Sportsnet, CBC Sports and Sun Media. He is currently the editor-in-chief of TFC Republic, a website dedicated to in-depth coverage of Toronto FC and Canadian soccer.
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