History was made on Tuesday night as the Canadian men’s national team reached the final stage of Concacaf World Cup qualifying for the first time since 1996-97 after defeating Haiti 4-0 on aggregate.
Having finally accomplished what appeared to be the unachievable for so long, the focus shifts to the Gold Cup this summer and, chiefly, the octagonal phase of World Cup qualifying.
Here’s how the road to Qatar sets up for Canada.
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What’s the format of the final round?
After undergoing a reshuffle due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the final round of Concacaf qualifying was expanded from six to eight teams.
All eight teams face each other home and away for a total of 14 games per side. The top three automatically qualify for the 2022 World Cup in Qatar. Fourth place drops into an inter-confederation playoff against a team from another confederation to be named later.
The games will be played during international breaks in September, October, November, January and March. This when each matchday is scheduled:
Matchday 1: Sept. 2
Matchday 2: Sept. 5
Matchday 3: Sept. 8
Matchday 4: Oct. 7
Matchday 5: Oct. 10
Matchday 6: Oct. 13
Matchday 7: Nov. 12
Matchday 8: Nov. 16
Matchday 9: Jan. 27, 2022
Matchday 10: Jan. 30, 2022
Matchday 11: Feb. 2, 2022
Matchday 12: March 24, 2022
Matchday 13: March 27, 2022
Matchday 14: March 30, 2022
Who will Canada face?
The other teams that will compete in the final round are: Mexico, United States, Costa Rica, Honduras, Jamaica, Panama and El Salvador.
Canada ironically welcomes Honduras, a team that’s inflicted heartbreak to the Canadians on multiple occasions, on Matchday 1. A crunch tie south of the border with the U.S. is on tap for Matchday 2 before closing out September with a home meeting against El Salvador.
Here’s Canada’s full schedule for the octagon:
We coming! #CANMNT #WCQ2022 pic.twitter.com/wsWfcSMze4
— Canada Soccer (@CanadaSoccerEN) June 16, 2021
Will Canada play at home?
The national team has played “home” matches in qualifying in Bradenton, Fla., and Bridgeview, Ill., in 2021 and the longer the Canadian Soccer Association has to stage games without fans, the more devastating the financial impact for the federation.
Considering the border with the U.S. is set to open soon, and with the Vegas Golden Knights being granted a special travel exemption to enter Canada to face the Montreal Canadiens in the Stanley Cup Playoffs, there’s optimism there will be proper home qualifiers in September.
Should that happen, the question then becomes: “Which city will host games?”
The CSA prefers cities with a training complex along with satisfactory stadium requirements. That’s why markets like Toronto, Montreal and Vancouver are beneficial.
The latter is marred by the fact BC Place has an artificial turf surface, not to mention the inconvenience of travelling to the west coast. However, fan support is strong in Vancouver. A 2016 qualifier against Mexico was sold out and a 2019 Nations League qualifier against French Guiana attracted more than 17,000 fans.
There’s also a case for Edmonton, one of the hosts for the 2026 World Cup and Alphonso Davies’ hometown. Surely fans would flock to Commonwealth Stadium to watch Davies, the team’s most marketable star and native hero. But again, the turf and lack of a top-class training facility is a disadvantage.
Canadian Premier League markets like Victoria, which was supposed to host a friendly in March 2020 before the pandemic hit, could (and should) be on the cards, too. Spreading the games across multiple cities not only builds momentum and fan support nationwide, it could give Canada a leg up on some opponents who use the sweltering heat or rabid supporters to their advantage.
What are Canada’s chances of qualifying?
The top two spots should go to the U.S. and Mexico. They are head-and-shoulders above most teams in the region, as the Nations League final on June 6 showed.
Costa Rica is the presumptive favourite to grab the third automatic qualifying spot, and given their home form, that’s justified. Los Ticos haven’t lost a home qualifier since 2012, a span of 14 games. Yes, they just fired coach Ronald Gonzalez, but performances were less than stellar under him, so that could reinvigorate an up-and-coming player pool.
That’s why Canada’s best chance of qualifying might be through the inter-confederation playoff as fourth-place finishers. Jamaica is one of the other contenders for that spot, having gradually built a formidable side after two runs to the Gold Cup final in 2015 and 2017, along with a semifinal in 2019. The commitment of West Ham United striker Michail Antonio gives The Reggae Boyz a proper No. 9 and they’re working on other dual nationals as we speak, as is Canada.
The key for Canada is winning home matches, because as impressive as the road win in Haiti was, that’s just one game. Facing the elements of Central America will be a whole new challenge for this group, so earning maximum points at home is pivotal.
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