SPORTSNET’s soccer panelists offer their predictions for the group stage of Euro 2012.
GROUP A
Stephen Brunt, Sportsnet: Well, someone has to come out on top, but what a dreary group. The opening match — Poland versus Greece — may be the least attractive in major tournament history. For entertainment’s sake, let’s hope the Russians find the form that got them to the semifinals four years ago in what was Andrei Arshavin’s break out competition. And let’s hope the Greeks don’t mount a dull-but-effective run to a championship as they did in 2004.
Prediction: 1) Russia, 2) Czech Republic, 3) Poland, 4) Greece
John Molinaro, sportsnet.ca: Much as I always like for the hosts do well, it’s hard for me to see Poland emerging from this group. Outside of a few players, they have neither the depth nor the quality to advance to the group stage. That leaves a three-way fight for the top two spots, and the Russians are a pretty balanced side. That should see them take first place ahead of a Greek team that is nowhere near as dour as it was eight years ago. Manager Fernando Santos has done a wonderful job rebuilding this team by introducing several young prospects.
Prediction: 1) Russia, 2) Greece, 3) Czech Republic, 4) Poland
Thomas Michalakos, sportsnet.ca: The Czech’s have a history of overachievement at the Euros; continuing that trend was made easier by this year’s draw. Defending is the key to success, especially with Petr Cech commanding a solid group of defenders. It might be close, but the Czechs should do enough to top the group.
Greece might be mocked and condemned for playing “anti-football,” but a team must play to its strengths. The Greeks live and die by their defensive methods, albeit new manager Fernando Santos deploys an entertaining 4-3-3 system that is more free-flowing than the previous model.
The co-hosts may have an entire nation pushing them forward, but Poland is really thin depth-wise which will be their downfall. Heroic performances by Wojciech Szczesny and Robert Lewandowski won’t be enough to save them.
Despite having the edge depth-wise, mental fatigue and physical exhaustion will derail the Russians high expectations. A result of an 18-month long domestic season is to blame. The Russians are notorious underachievers, and an early defeat will shatter their morale and set the tone for a poor showing.
Prediction: 1) Czech Republic, 2) Greece, 3) Poland, 4) Russia
GROUP B
Brunt: The Dutch are two years removed from the World Cup final, when following a brilliant tournament they tried to win ugly over Spain, and broke even their supporters’ hearts. They ought to get through here if Arjen Robben and company are in anything close to top form. But Germany, brilliantly coached and producing wave after wave of talent, looks poised not just to win this group, but perhaps to win this tournament.
Prediction: 1) Germany, 2) Netherlands, 3) Denmark, 4) Portugal
Molinaro: It sounds so boring and predictable to pick Germany as one of the favourites. But considering they have such great depth and can call upon players the calibre of Mesut Ozil and Bastian Schweinsteiger, it takes a brave person to say they won’t win it all. Germany looked like a team on the verge of greatness at the 2012 World Cup. Two years later, they are poised to fulfill their destiny. Netherlands offers a lot going forward, and although they are suspect at the back, they’ll make it to the knockout stage. Denmark has had Portugal’s number over the years, and that should be enough for the Danes to finish third.
Prediction: 1) Germany, 2) Netherlands, 3) Denmark, 4) Portugal
Michalakos: The Germans are built for success and are primed to reap the benefits of over a decade-long reconstruction of their football program. This is one of the deepest squads in recent memory. Goalkeeper Manuel Neuer puts to bed any question marks about a weak back line, while the midfield has too many weapons to name that can provide adequate service to target-men Miroslav Klose and Mario Gomez.
Netherlands come into the tournament with an array of highly skilled individuals. Bert van Marwijk should find goals easy to come by with Robin van Persie and Klaas-Jan Huntelaar as striking options, complimented by a clever midfield that will guide the team into the next round.
The one glaring issue for Portugal continues to be the absence of a true number nine; they are overflowing with talented wingers and midfielders that are expected to compensate. Cristiano Ronaldo carries much of that weight. Lots of creativity and slick defending won’t be enough to climb over the mountain.
Denmark is the interesting wildcard; not much is expected and for good reason. They are simply outclassed and a bit unlucky. The Danes are made up some decent parts, Christian Eriksen being the most skilled and sought after in the bunch.
Prediction: 1) Germany, 2) Netherlands, 3) Portugal, 4) Denmark
GROUP C
Brunt: Until proven otherwise, hats off to the defending European and World Cup champions. Any side with Xavi running the show is going to be beyond formidable. But they’re going to miss the finishing touch of the injured David Villa. And who knows what to expect from Fernando Torres. With a match fixing scandal unfolding, Italy bonded in 2006 and unexpectedly won the World Cup. It’s getting ugly back home once again, but this time let’s assume it’s going to be a distraction. That opens the door for Croatia to slip through.
Prediction: 1) Spain, 2) Croatia, 3) Italy, 4) Ireland
Molinaro: It’s true that Spain’s midfield axis of Xavi and Andres Iniesta are coming off long seasons in which Barcelona manager Pep Guardiola ran them into the ground. But honestly, how do you bet against Spain? They could field two teams in this tournament that are capable of meeting in the final. Such is their depth and class. Croatia would have to be considered a dark horse favourite but for the fact they rely far too much on Luka Modric. If you shut him down, Croatia stalls. Italy is reborn under Cesare Prandelli, who has rebuilt the squad by blooding several youngsters. The match-fixing scandal won’t distract them in the least. Ireland is a plucky side, but that won’t be enough.
Prediction: 1) Spain, 2) Italy, 3) Croatia, 4) Ireland
Michalakos: Like a matador waving a red flag to get the attention of the bull, Spain has a big bull’s-eye on its back, but is still favoured to make history by repeating as champions. Questions might be raised about fatigue, and Spain might have dipped slightly. Nevertheless, immense depth will see them out-gun the opposition into submission.
In what will be his final duty as manager, Slaven Bilic has put together a side capable of shaking up the natural order of the group. A sturdy defensive core of lesser names should manage to keep the ball out of the net, and with Luka Modric pulling the strings, Croatia are in good position to turn some heads.
Italy is marred by another match fixing scandal, and the notion that the Azzurri can mirror results of the past under adversity are seriously misguided. Mario Balotelli is a ticking time-bomb, and defensively the Azzurri are absent of a true leader. Too many on-field question marks and outside distractions will be their downfall
Giovanni Trapattoni has done a tremendous job guiding the Irish through qualification and into their first European Cup in 24 years. Unfortunately, they are over-matched in every department,
Prediction: 1) Spain, 2) Croatia, 3) Italy, 4) Ireland
GROUP D
Brunt: Normally, expectations at home for England are crazily out of whack with reality on the eve of a big tournament — and then they lose in the quarter-finals. This time around, even their most ardent supporters aren’t holding out much hope, especially with Wayne Rooney beginning the tournament under suspension. It’s tempting to pick Sweden ahead of them, or maybe even the home side from Ukraine. But that would spoil all the fun wouldn’t it? The best team here, though, will be France, stocked with a new generation of talent, and held together under the steady hand of Laurent Blanc.
Prediction: 1) France, 2) England, 3) Sweden, 4) Ukraine
Molinaro: You have to admire the job Laurent Blanc has done with France since taking over the managerial reins in the aftermath of the 2010 World Cup debacle. Les Bleus enter this competition on the back of a 21-game unbeaten run. Look for Karim Benzema to run wild and bag lots of goals. Talk of England’s pending failure has been overblown. Although the absence of Rooney for the first two games hurts, the Three Lions have enough scoring prowess to overcome. Still, I give the nod to Sweden for second place, as they have a solid core of players who have been here before and Zlatan Ibrahimovic, no matter what you think of him, is a game breaker.
Prediction: 1) France, 2) Sweden, 3) England, 4) Ukraine
Michalakos: The French are a great underdog pick; Laurent Blanc has a potent attacking force at his disposal, starting up front with Karim Benzema, continuing in midfield and on the wings by a star-studded collection of players. Spearheading the assault are Franck Ribery, Yohan Cabaye and Mathieu Valbuena, with goalkeeper Hugo Lloris making sure France will outscore their opponents to come out on top.
With expectations plummeting faster than the injury list is filling up, getting out of the group would be seen as a miraculous achievement for Roy Hodgson. Despite the obvious obstacles, England does have enough quality to grab the remaining qualification spot, but barely. Results will be hard fought and ugly, so anticipate low scores.
Other than feverish home support, Ukraine does not have much of a leg to stand on, they are quite simply overmatched. A close consolation will come by way of Andriy Shevchenko scoring on home soil to cap off his illustrious international career.
The Swedes are full of fire power, lead by goal machine and kung-fu expert Zlatan Ibrahimovic, complimented by great distributors Kim Kallstrom, Sebastian Larsson and Christian Wilhelmsson. However, Sweden tends to fold against stronger opposition and will be unable to bully their way into the next round.
Prediction: 1) France, 2) England, 3) Ukraine, 4) Sweden