Despite a disappointing loss to New York Red Bulls on Wednesday, the Montreal Impact appear to be on the right track, bound for a playoff berth in only their second season in Major League Soccer.
After missing out on the post-season in the team’s inaugural MLS campaign, new head coach Marco Schällibaum has the Impact looking poised and able to compete with any team in the league. Key to the Impact’s success this year will be keeping the ball out of the back of the net, and already, they look much improved in that regard.
Of course, without the ability to score goals, even the best defending won’t get you far. Take a look at this chart of the 2012 Eastern Conference. Each of top five teams that made the playoffs had a positive ratio of goals per game minus goals conceded per game. We’ll use this basic measure as an indicator of what it took to make the playoffs in 2012.
Notice the pretty clear correlation that the five playoff teams in the East all had a positive ratio of goals per game vs. goals against. Columbus fell a point short of the playoffs with an even ratio; and to further illustrate that defending on its own is not enough in this league, look at New England, whose defensive numbers stacked up well, but still fell well short of a playoff position.
Also, recall that in the unlikely event of a dead heat in points, the team with the most goals scored will make the playoffs.
2013 so far…
If the trend for 2012 holds true in 2013, the Impact look well positioned to make the leap into the playoffs this year.
Thus far, the Impact are conceding significantly less — and a full season of Marco Di Vaio up front combined with improved wing play from Justin Mapp and the additions of Daniele Paponi, Andrea Pisanu and Andres Romero bodes well for the attack going forward.
Bernier’s the boss
In 2012, former Montreal coach Jesse Marsch used a 4-4-2 formation before switching to a 4-2-3-1, with Collen Warner and Patrice Bernier holding down the defensive midfield position.
Schällibaum has favoured the 4-1-4-1 formation in 2013, though the team has at times played in a basic 4-4-2.
Key to Schällibaum’s preferred 4-1-4-1 has been the play of Bernier, who has been one of the best players in the entire league in the first few months of the 2013 season.
Bernier plays a crucial role as a defensive disruptor in the centre of the midfield, allowing Montreal’s talented offensive players to get forward without fear. The Quebec native has also tallied a goal and has provided good distribution to launch attacks, tied for second in the league with three assists.
Bernier’s continued emergence as a star player in MLS has been a key factor in Montreal’s improved form this season, but even when opposition is able to bypass him, the Impact’s backline has mostly held strong.
The backline
Alessandro Nesta was supposed to be the key cog in the Impact’s defence after joining the team in mid-season last year. While Nesta has been good when he’s played, and certainly commands respect given his track record, injuries have forced the Impact to shuffle the deck in central defence thus far in 2013.
Ideally, Nesta would be partnered with Matteo Ferrari – still criminally underrated in terms of MLS central defenders – week in and week out, but the revolving door of centre backs hasn’t seemed to make a huge mark on the Impact’s overall defending numbers. Keep in mind the sample size for 2013 is too small to draw any definitive conclusions, but the consistency at the back looks like a positive sign going forward:
* includes March 16 vs. TFC, where Nesta was withdrawn after 12 minutes.
Going forward
The numbers bear out that Montreal’s defending has been much improved in 2013. The club’s tendency to leak goals, particularly early in 2012 when Marsch was understandably experimenting with different looks, proved the death knell of their playoff hopes.
But in 2013, given the team’s improved attacking options, and roster continuity, the Impact look like a sure bet to reach the postseason regardless of which personnel they are forced to use in defence.