National Bank Open: What to watch for in men's and women's finals

There have been twists, turns, and rain providing obstacles along the way, and on Sunday we will have the culmination of all that has made the 2023 National Bank Open so memorable.

Jessica Pegula must have been inspired by seeing a fellow American knock out the top seed on the men’s side Friday, asking Tommy Paul to hold her beer (figuratively) as she took to IGA stadium on Saturday and knocked out the women’s top seed Iga Swiatek in three sets.

With rain playing spoilsport once again in Montreal, the second women’s semifinal between Elena Rybakina and Liudmila Samsonova was postponed and will be played early Sunday afternoon. After some rest, the winner will then play the final against Jessica Pegula, who will be watching and waiting like the rest of us.

Jannik Sinner will hope that third time’s the charm as he heads into his third Masters 1000 final having lost the previous two (both in Miami). He looked at ease with the favourite tag going up against Paul on Saturday and more of that resolve will put him in good shape for Sunday.

His opponent will be Alex de Minaur, who is playing with house money having already taken out 11th seed Cameron Norrie, eighth seed Taylor Fritz, and second seed Daniil Medvedev. He put on a defensive clinic in his semifinal against Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, but it will be a different level of power he’ll have to contend with in the final.

Here’s a closer look at what Sunday has in store across both Toronto and Montreal:

Women's singles semifinal

1:30 p.m. ET / 10:30 a.m. PT: Elena Rybakina vs. Liudmila Samsonova

Men’s doubles final

1:30 p.m. ET / 10:30 a.m. PT: Rajeev Ram/Joe Salisbury vs. Marcelo Arevalo/Jean-Julien Rojer

Women’s doubles final

4:00 p.m. ET / 1:00 p.m. PT: Shuko Aoyama/Ena Shibahara vs. Latisha Chan/Zhaoxuan Yang

Men's singles final

4:00 p.m. ET / 1:00 p.m. PT: Jannik Sinner vs. Alex de Minaur

Women’s singles final

5:30 p.m. ET / 2:30 p.m. PT: Jessica Pegula vs. Rybakina or Samsonova

* Women’s final time is tentative based on completion of earlier matches.

JANNIK SINNER VS. ALEX DE MINAUR

One of Alex de Minaur or Jannik Sinner will win their first Masters 1000 title.

For Sinner, this is a massive opportunity to put a stamp on his potential and what others see in him by becoming just the second Italian man (Fabio Fognini was the first) to win an M1000-level event.

Carlos Alcaraz has zoomed ahead in terms of trophies but Sinner has still accomplished plenty to be viewed as his biggest challenger for the next decade. Turning 22 on Aug. 16, Sinner has already reached at least the quarters at all four slams. This title would only add further credence to that.

For de Minaur, this appearance in the final already makes a recent surge feel very real. He made the final at Queen’s (pre-Wimbledon event) and lost to Alcaraz, and is coming off a final in Los Cabos where he lost to Stefanos Tsitsipas. He’ll be at least 12th in the ATP rankings on Monday (11th if he wins the final).

Consistency with his groundstrokes has been the key to de Minaur’s success, as he’s arguably the fastest player on tour and possesses tremendous court coverage. Sinner has shown a steeliness about him in this tournament in the big moments, has served very well, and will like his chances as he holds a 4-0 record in his head-to-head with de Minaur.

JESSICA PEGULA VS. ELENA RYBAKINA/LIUDMILA SAMSONOVA

Jessica Pegula has built a reputation of being an extremely consistent player who can’t quite cut it with the very best in the game. She established herself as a top five player last year and her results in consistently making the quarterfinals or better at most events speaks for itself.

Where the debate over her ceiling begins is in knowing that she has made six Grand Slam quarterfinals and lost all six of them. On Saturday in Montreal, she showed that she could potentially revise that ceiling.

Defeating WTA No. 1 Iga Swiatek in a match that went back and forth right till the very end of the third and deciding set, having lost six of their seven previous meetings, was a huge statement.

She spoke after the match how it would not only give her confidence going into the final but the next couple of weeks as well going into the U.S. Open, and it will be particularly interesting to see if this proves a career-shifting moment in how she’s perceived as a player.

What will be funky for her in this final is having to prepare for two opponents. She won’t know her opponent until the Rybakina-Samsonova semifinal is actually completed tomorrow, and so will have to be ready for either one as there’ll be hardly time to do much prep after that match.

That being said, it is clearly a significant advantage for Pegula as her opponent is going to have to play both a semifinal and a final on the same day to win the tournament.