How the draw for Euro 2024 favoured Portugal, but punished Italy

Defending European champion Italy and World Cup semifinalist Croatia were the big losers during the official draw for UEFA Euro 2024. 

The opening round of next summer’s tournament that will be hosted by Germany was determined during Saturday’s gala event in Hamburg as the 24-country field was divided into six round-robin groups. 

The top two nations in each group — along with the four-best third-place teams overall — advance to the knockout round of the competition, which is scheduled for June 14 to July 14 in 10 cities across Germany. Twenty-one nations have already clinched their berths for the tournament. The last three spots will be determined during the final round of the qualifying playoffs next March.

Here’s what stood out from the UEFA Euro 2024 draw.

Germany vs. Scotland in tournament opener 

Germany has had a rough go of it the last five years, having bowed out of the group stage of the previous two FIFA World Cups and losing to England in the round-of-16 at Euro 2020. Julian Nagelsmann has just one win in four games since being named the team’s new manager in September, which is further indication of the tough job he faces in restoring Germany amongst the elite nations in the world.

But Die Mannschaft will have a distinct next summer as they’ll host the event and play all of their games in front of the home fans.  

The Germans, No. 16 in the FIFA world rankings, will also have the benefit of a somewhat manageable first round after being pooled in Group A with Switzerland (No. 18), Hungary (No. 27) and Scotland (No. 36). The tournament’s opening match pits the hosts against the Scots on June 14 at Allianz Arena in Munich, one of the most intimidating venues for visiting teams in world soccer. 

Italy, Croatia and Spain in the Group of Death 

UEFA’s decision to march to the beat of its own drum had dire consequences for Italy and Croatia. 

FIFA relies on its monthly world rankings to make sure no top-rated nations are placed amongst the lowest-ranked teams in pot 3 and 4 of its World Cup draws. Had this convention been followed for Saturday’s proceedings, ninth-ranked Italy and No. 10 Croatia would have been in pot 2 and would have likely received more favourable draws. 

But UEFA based its seedings for the draw for Euro 2024 solely on the teams' results in qualifying for the tournament. That meant Italy wound up in pot 4 and Croatia was in pot 3. Italy was beaten twice by England en route to finishing second in its qualifying group, while Croatia also dropped valuable points in the qualifiers that allowed Austria to beat them out for a place on pot 2. 

As a result, the Italians and Croatians ended up being drawn into Group B for Euro 2024, where they’ll play No. 8 Spain (semifinalist at Euro 2020) and No. 62 Albania. This is the only group of the six to have three teams ranked in the top 10.

The lone saving grace for Italy is that it faces Albania on June 15 in its opening match of the competition, while Spain and Croatia face off that same day. It’ll be vital for the Azzurri to pick up three points against the modest Albanians before taking on the Spanish and Croatians in games that could seal their fate.

Denmark out for revenge vs. England 

Denmark went on a somewhat surprising run at Euro 2020 when it managed to just get out of its group and then defeated Wales and the Czech Republic in the knockout round, before losing to England in the semifinals. 

The Danes (No. 19) and the English (No. 3) will meet again at Euro 2024 in Group C, where they’ve also been drawn with Serbia (No. 34) and Slovenia (No. 54). With Harry Kane in fine form for Bayern Munich this season — 22 goals in 18 games in all competitions — England has to be considered among the favourites going into next summer’s European Championship.  

But don’t discount Denmark, who topped its qualifying group ahead of Slovenia, with Manchester United forward Rasmus Højlund — just 20 years old — score seven of the team’s 19 goals. 

France set to clash with the Netherlands — again 

Group D is an interesting one as it features two nations in the top 10 rankings in No. 2 France (last year’s World Cup finalist) and the Netherlands (No. 6) who also battled each other in the qualifiers. 

On paper, these two giants — who have combined to win three European championships — should be favoured to go through from their group as they both feature talented attackers, most notably Paris Saint-Germain forward Kylian Mbappé. 

But don’t sleep on No. 24 Austria, who came out of a tough qualifying group that included Belgium and Sweden and has won seven of its last 10 games (including a win over Germany). A playoff winner — either Poland, Wales, Finland or Estonia — will round out the group. 

Belgium’s last chance? 

Belgium was touted as one of the World Cup favourites last year in Qatar. But Eden Hazard and the rest of the squad’s superstars failed to live up to the hype and bowed out of the tournament in the group stage. 

Belgium’s “Golden Generation,” which includes Romelu Lukaku and several other World Cup holdovers, will likely have one final opportunity to finally come good at Euro 2024, as the fourth-ranked Red Devils were fortunate to be drawn into Group E with Romania (No. 43), Slovakia (No. 45) and a playoff winner (Israel, Iceland, Bosnia and Herzegovina, or Ukraine). 

Favourable draw for Ronaldo and Portugal 

Portugal breezed through the Euro qualifiers with a perfect 10-0-0 record and outscored its opponents by a combined 36-2, with Cristiano Ronaldo scoring 10 times. 

Ronaldo, who turns 39 in February, should be able to go on another goal-scoring rampage at Euro 2024 as No. 7 Portugal was drawn into Group F with Turkey (No. 37), Czechia (No. 39) and a still-to-be-determined playoff winner (Georgia, Greece Kazakhstan or Luxembourg).