Back at MSG, UFC uber-prospect Bo Nickal seeks challenge and redemption

NEW YORK — Bo Nickal has been to Madison Square Garden before: The 2016 NCAA Division I Wrestling Championships, one of the lowest moments of his otherwise unassailable collegiate career.

Competing at 174 pounds as a 19-year-old freshman after redshirting his first year at Penn State, Nickal went 26-1 during the regular season, dominated the Big Ten Championship, entered the NCAA tournament as the top seed, and cruised to the final. But there, before a sold-out crowd under Garden lights, Nickal was upset by the tournament’s No. 11 seed, Myles Martin, an Ohio State freshman he’d beaten three times while on his tear earlier in the year.

“That was a tough moment for me. Being a young kid and losing on that stage; missing out on a goal that I had been training so hard for,” Nickal said Wednesday, back in New York, where he’ll compete at the Garden once again on Saturday versus Paul Craig at UFC 309. “I feel like I've taken the positive and the negative of that. The negative: not achieving my goal. But the positive of being able to learn and mature from that experience.

“I've been there, I've experienced loss. I know what it feels like. It's been eight years since that happened — and it's motivated me every day for those eight years. And now I get an opportunity to redeem myself.”

Such is the intensity Nickal has brought to his still-embryonic MMA career. He’s competing in a completely different sport now and still consumed with avenging a loss from nearly a decade ago against a wrestler he went 9-1 against over their collegiate careers.

But such is the intensity elite athletes like Nickal bring to nearly everything they do. The intensity that’s allowed him to make light-speed leaps in MMA, to the point where this Saturday he’ll be competing on his fourth UFC main card in only his sixth professional fight.

“I live in that intensity, you know?” Nickal said. “You should have seen some of the workouts I was doing as a little kid; should have seen some of the workouts I did through high school and through college. Most people would not believe that that type of stuff is going on. The intensity is really not an issue for me. I can turn it up real quick if we need to.”

A star in the wrestling world since he was a teenager dominating Texas state high school tournaments, Nickal entered UFC as one of its most accomplished athletes outside the sport. He’s a three-time NCAA Division 1 national champion, a U23 World Champion and the 2019 Big Ten Athlete of the Year. He was a finalist to represent the U.S. at the 2020 Olympics, falling at team trials to David Taylor, the eventual Olympic gold medalist at 86 kg.

Shortly after those Olympic trials, Nickal made his amateur MMA debut, earning a pair of first-round stoppages before jumping to the regional circuit and knocking out his first professional opponent within a minute. Only two months later, he emerged on the UFC radar, winning twice via first-round submission on Dana White’s Contender Series and earning a contract with the promotion.

In the span of four months, with fewer than five minutes of octagon time, Nickal went from his professional debut to being booked on his first UFC pay per view against 21-fight veteran Jamie Pickett. And after the fight was postponed three months to allow Nickal to overcome a shoulder injury suffered in a scooter accident, he ran through Pickett, too, sinking an arm triangle midway through the first round.

A first-round knockout of Val Woodburn and second-round submission of Cody Brundage have followed, upping Nickal’s record to 6-0 and his hype to an immeasurable level. But Saturday, Nickal will encounter his toughest opponent yet in Craig, a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt who’s finished 13 of his 17 professional wins via submission.

For the first time, Nickal will be facing an elite grappler who poses grave threats if he chooses to wrestle. He’ll also be at a significant experience disadvantage, with only 12 minutes and 10 seconds of octagon time to Craig’s nearly two-and-a-half hours.

“He's a guy that poses a lot of danger and some interesting problems to solve,” Nickal said. “This is the biggest challenge that I've had..

It ought to be an interesting test of Nickal’s development, although oddsmakers aren’t buying it, giving him squash match odds ranging anywhere from -1100 to -1400. That’s despite Craig having wins over Jamahal Hill and Nikita Krylov, both ranked within the top 10 a division up at light-heavyweight, within the last three years.

It says one thing about Craig’s recent form, as the 36-year-old has lost four of his last five and looked significantly diminished after making a big cut down to middleweight. But it says another about Nickal’s talent. He’s absorbed only seven strikes across five UFC appearances. The only opponent he hasn’t taken down at will is Woodburn, who he knocked out 38 seconds into the fight. He’ll have a massive advantage in speed and athleticism over Craig, who allows that Nickal’s ability is uncommon.

“I do believe Bo Nickal has all the credentials and all the skillset to be a champion,” Craig said. “He's just got to get through me first. And I do believe that it's a tough fight for him.”

It’s worth noting that Craig is arguably most dangerous when he’s on his back. That’s the position he beat Hill from, trapping the one-time light-heavyweight champion in a triangle while dislocating his elbow and earning a stoppage with upward strikes. Krylov, too, who Craig forced to tap with a triangle he sunk out of nowhere after spending most of the fight absorbing a hurricane of shots from above.

The fighters who have done best against Craig have defended takedowns relentlessly and kept the fight on the feet at close distance. Nickal could choose to do that, too. As inexperienced as he is, Nickal ought to be able to handle Craig’s striking. But he’d still be trying to win the fight with one of the rawer aspects of his game.

“He’s a very good striker. He’s got power in his hands. He’s very, very quick. But I do believe my striking is just a little bit longer and I can use that range,” Craig said. “Space is not going to be Bo Nickal's friend in this fight.”

This is why styles make fights; and why UFC made this one. Craig can counter Nickal’s strengths but isn’t much of a threat to his weaknesses. He’s a recognizable-enough name to sell the fight but far enough from his prime to control it. Nickal isn’t being given a huge jump in competition — he’s being given just enough. And an opportunity against an unexceptional striker to add another highlight finish to his resume.

“Something that's really important about this fight for me is it's going to show that I'm a complete fighter and I have skills outside of just wrestling,” Nickal said. “Whereas in other fights I've been able to utilize the wrestling to really dominate. Paul Craig is great off his back. So, it's going to show that I have grappling skills, that I have striking skills.”

The UFC has a delicate risk-reward line to walk with Nickal as it advances him fight to fight, fueling his development and upward momentum with the right matchups at the right times while resisting the temptation to rush him into more prominent bookings against tougher fighters who would love to be the ones to derail the hype train.

Nickal’s athletic background and work ethic have allowed him to improve foreign aspects of his MMA game rapidly. But he can only gain so much ground on competitors who have been drilling striking or practicing jiu-jitsu for decades. Put him in an octagon against an experienced fighter with a deep bag of tricks in a skillset Nickal’s still familiarizing himself with and he’s liable to get exposed.

But the organization can’t waste star potential like Nickal’s by booking him against no-names at the UFC Apex on Fight Night cards. And some fans have already begun to crow about perceived inactivity and favouritism. The former argument is hard to make as Nickal’s fought twice per year since entering UFC; but there’s some credence to the latter when you see him go from his professional debut to a pay-per-view main card in less than a year.

Ultimately, it’s an attention-driven game — and there’s great interest in how Nickal’s MMA career plays out. An entertainment game, too. And Nickal has held up that end of the bargain with early stoppages in each of his fights and polished proficiency on the microphone afterward. That performance is going to be hard to sustain as the competition get tougher. But the competition has to get tougher for the interest to sustain, too.

Of course, Nickal can’t worry about any of that. He’s got a fight on Saturday back at the venue where he suffered one of his most disheartening defeats — a loss that still burns at him to this day. On Tuesday, Nickal was invited to the Garden to watch a New York Rangers game. It was his first time back since the NCAA tournament in 2016. Walking around the arena, the anxiety, the emotions quickly rushed back to him.

“I absolutely let that match feel bigger than it was. It was a big match and a big opportunity. It definitely overwhelmed me a little bit,” Nickal said of his 2016 loss. “As a kid, that type of thing is going to happen. And I think God put that lesson in my life for a reason. Just to help me mature and grow.

“At the end of the day, I know that I'm not defined by winning and losing. My value as a person, it doesn't have to do with my record in sports. It's about character, treating people well, my effort, my attitude, things like that. And that's really a big lesson that I was able to learn from that experience.”