Bold UFC predictions for 2024: Prepare for a year of non-stop title turnover

Pugilism had quite the year in 2023.

The past 12 months saw the PFL and Bellator join forces in a landscape-altering move for mixed martial arts. In addition to that, a former UFC champion crossed over into boxing following a public contract dispute and nearly pulled off one of the biggest upsets of all time, all the while, the UFC continued to operate and adapt as the top combat sports organization out there.

The UFC celebrated its 30th anniversary in 2023 and it did so by holding 43 events. Titles changed hands in all but four divisions, with Leon Edwards, Islam Makhachev, Alexander Volkanovski and Weili Zhang the only fighters to enter and exit the year as champions of their respective weight classes. There were additional interim and vacant titles awarded, not to mention a non-stop barrage of highlight-reel knockouts, submissions and back-and-forth brawls.

Several of the annual predictions we made ahead of 2023 ended up coming true: Jon Jones did return a scarier version of himself, winning the heavyweight title in March without breaking a sweat; the light-heavyweight belt didn’t settle around one fighter’s waist beginning with Jamahal Hill winning the vacant belt in January only to later vacate it due to injury before his first defence. Then, Alex Pereira stopped former 205-pound champion Jiri Prochazka in November to win his second title in as many years and as many weight classes. 

The feared Brazilian striker enters next year as one of the reigning UFC champions sporting a target on their back and an intriguing list of contenders waiting for their own opportunity to snatch the title.

With 2024 shaping up to be another exciting year in the UFC, let’s see if we can nail a few more predictions … with some being bolder than others.

MIDDLEWEIGHT EMERGES AS MOST COMPELLING DIVISION

The 185-pound division has a long list of past champions who are either already in or will one day be in the UFC Hall of Fame. Despite the weight class’s respectable history and handful of notable rivalries — think Anderson Silva vs. Chael Sonnen or Israel Adesanya vs. Alex Pereira in recent years — middleweight has rarely, if ever, been the most compelling division in the sport at any given time. Well, that changes in 2024 beginning with the UFC 297 main event between Sean Strickland and Dricus Du Plessis.

Even though December’s UFC 296 was headlined by a welterweight title fight, fans left that event buzzing about the upcoming middleweight title fight after Strickland attacked Du Plessis in the stands moments after the two were shown on the jumbotron situated closely to one another.

Strickland, a popular and outspoken fighter, upset Adesanya in September to become champ several months after Adesanya finally defeated his rival "Poatan" to avenge three prior losses. Don’t think just because Pereira is now up ruling at 205 and Adesanya is taking a hiatus from the sport that the division lacks star power or intrigue. On the contrary. The division might be stronger and deeper than ever.

Du Plessis and Strickland will bring the heat on the microphones and in the cage at UFC 297, and unfortunately (or fortunately depending on how you like your fights promoted) altercations like the one we saw at UFC 296 are always going to be on the table when certain personalities are involved — and right now the ranked contenders at 185 offer plenty of opportunities for new rivalries to form in rapid succession.

There’s already so much to look forward to outside of the immediate title picture. In fact, the division headlines three consecutive cards, beginning with UFC 297. Roman Dolidze vs. Nassourdine Imavov and Jack Hermansson vs. Joe Pyfer headline back-to-back UFC Apex events to kick off February before Robert Whittaker and Paulo Costa are supposed to fight at UFC 298.

Jared Cannonier and Brendan Allen are each on hot streaks and have history with Strickland, while you also have two enormous x-factors, one of whom is more well-known to mainstream fans than the other.

Khamzat Chimaev is extremely relevant in this division, coming off a win over Kamaru Usman, and could be middleweight champion by the end of the year. Another blue chipper is the outstanding prospect Bo Nickal who opened as a massive favourite over Cody Brundage for their scheduled UFC 300 matchup. Nickal only began training MMA in 2021 but his phenomenal wrestling base and freak athleticism have him boasting an undefeated record and several highlight finishes. 

There won’t be a month that goes by this year without middleweight stealing headlines.

SHEVCHENKO BECOMES DOUBLE CHAMP

Valentina Shevchenko had a 2023 to forget — losing her title to Alexa Grasso in March then failing to win it back thanks to a split draw in the September rematch — and that could mean she’s being underestimated heading into the new year. The former 125-pound champion will be 36 in March and although her best years as a fighter might be behind her, Shevchenko is a special fighter and a difficult style matchup for many. By all accounts, Shevchenko should’ve won her title back at Noche UFC but one judge’s 10-8 fifth-round scorecard in favour of Grasso is what ultimately led to the split draw result instead of a split decision for Shevchenko.

Watch Shevchenko avenge her previous loss to Grasso to win back the flyweight title and instead of defending against Erin Blanchfield, Manon Fiorot or another flyweight challenger on the rise, she’ll turn her attention to 135 pounds and the winner of UFC 297’s vacant title bout between Raquel Pennington and Mayra Bueno Silva. Shevchenko previously competed at bantamweight where she holds wins over former champions Holly Holm and Julianna Pena, so the UFC would welcome her star power back to that division now that Amanda Nunes is no longer in the picture.

THE TITLE TURNOVER DOESN'T STOP

If the two predictions above are any indication, the overall theme of 2024 is going to be champions having difficulty retaining their titles. In fact, don’t be entirely surprised if more than half the divisions end up getting new champions and, in several cases, multiple new champions.

Here are my subjective power rankings of current titleholders most likely to lose their belts at some point in 2024:

1. Sean Strickland
2. Alexa Grasso
3. Sean O'Malley
4. Alex Pereira
5. Alexander Volkanovski
6. Leon Edwards
7. Alexandre Pantoja
8. Zhang Weili
9. Islam Makhachev
10. Jon Jones/Tom Aspinall*
*interim champion

As mentioned above, middleweight should be crazy competitive next year and there’s an intimidating line of contenders with interested eyes on Strickland vs. Du Plessis in Toronto.

If O'Malley defends against Marlon Vera at UFC 299 then his next fight will be against one of Cory Sandhagen, Merab Dvalishvili or Henry Cejudo. Sandhagen mops the floor with O'Malley if those two meet.

As much as it pains me to say it, I think that head-kick knockout loss to Makhachev is going to have a lasting effect on Volkanovski’s durability at age 35 and although he’s favoured to defend his title against Ilia Topuria at UFC 298, fans should think of Topuria as a live dog in that one.

I like Edwards’s chances to beat Belal Muhammad, the rightful next in line, but right now welterweight is starting to feel like Shavkat Rakhmonov is the uncrowned champion. Rakhmonov sent “Wonderboy” off into the sunset and did it with a compromised ankle at UFC 296, so he can take some extra time to recover and wait for his turn as Edwards and Muhammad do their rematch. Rakhmonov is 18-0 with 18 finishes and his 19th victory will see him become a UFC champ.

ASPINALL ERA BEGINS; HEAVYWEIGHT BECOMES TOP-THREE P4P

This past year was a whirlwind for the big fellas, both in MMA and boxing, and the two sports collided in when former UFC champion Francis Ngannou fought lineal boxing champion Tyson Fury to a decision many felt Ngannou could’ve earned, especially after dropping Fury with a clubbing left hand that shook up two sports in a single moment.

Will we get anything that dramatic again in 2024?

The heavyweight division in MMA has ebbed and flowed over the years and it’s only natural for championship belts to change hands frequently when there’s such tremendous power behind heavyweight strikes and submissions. However, at times the division has lagged behind others in terms of the technique and/or fight IQ at the top of the division. Every handful of years, though, an athlete emerges that introduces a new element to the weight class and elevates the division to a new level altogether.

Fedor Emelianenko and Cain Velasquez are two prime examples of this from the past and the UFC’s current interim heavyweight champion, Tom Aspinall, is the next. Jon Jones is recovering from an injury and the organization seems set on having Jones fight Stipe Miocic when he’s ready to return.

It won’t matter who Aspinall ends up facing next — it could be the winner of Curtis Blaydes vs. Jailton Almeida — because he’ll pick up another dominant victory as interim champ and begin rising up the UFC’s pound-for-pound rankings where he currently sits No. 12. Timing-wise, a Jones-Aspinall unification bout doesn’t seem too likely for 2024 but by the end of next December it’ll be crystal clear Aspinall is not only the future of the heavyweight division, but also that he’s truly among the sport’s elite talents when it comes to overall skill set.