There are major implications for the men’s bantamweight division this weekend as the UFC makes its return to Etihad Arena in the United Arab Emirates for a Fight Night card headlined by Cory Sandhagen and Umar Nurmagomedov.
The 135-pound title will be on the line in September when Sean O’Malley takes on Merab Dvalishvili at The Sphere and the winner of Saturday’s main event will certainly have a close eye on the result.
Nurmagomedov will have the Abu Dhabi crowd on his side. The surging contender will also have his cousin, retired former UFC lightweight champion Khabib Nurmagomedov, in his corner helping coach him.
Could that mean we see more of a wrestling-heavy approach from the 17-0 pro fighter looking for his sixth win under the UFC banner and his biggest victory to date?
Nurmagomedov has shown an ability to enforce his dominant wrestling skills on his opponents, averaging 4.51 takedowns per 15 minutes in the UFC. He is successful on 56 per cent of his takedown attempts and defended the lone takedown attempt he faced during UFC competition for what that’s worth.
Unlike his cousin, however, the 28-year-old Nurmagomedov does not always have a grapple-first game plan. Nurmagomedov has respectable striking skills like we saw in his first-round knockout of Raoni Barcelos early last year.
He averages 4.75 significant strikes per minute at 69 per cent accuracy but those offensive numbers are slightly skewed by the fact he landed 61 significant ground strikes against Bekzat Almakhan in March in a fight that began with Nurmagomedov being knocked down by a punch before taking control with takedowns and control for the duration of the match.
Sandhagen is among the most versatile, high-level fighters on the UFC roster and he’s riding a three-fight winning streak. It’ll be a year, almost to the day, since his unanimous decision win over Rob Font in a 140-pound catchweight bout by the time he steps into the cage to face Nurmagomedov.
Font replaced Nurmagomedov on two weeks’ notice last summer when the Russian withdrew due to injury, so Sandhagen has been preparing for the standout from Dagestan for longer than the weeks leading up to Saturday’s event.
Sandhagen told Sportsnet’s Aaron Bronsteter this week he had a long and arduous training camp to prepare for a well-rounded fighter with a unique style like Numagomedov.
“I’m feeling like the best version of myself. … I think there’s still a lot of unanswered questions about Umar,” Sandhagen said before adding. “I kinda feel like Umar isn’t going to be as much a puzzle to solve as it’s going to be a needle to thread. I just need to be very accurate and precise and very particular about the way that I approach this fight.
“He’s an undefeated guy that everyone thinks is gonna be the next guy, so I’m really excited to prove that he might be all those things but he’s not better than me.”
Sandhagen also has wins over Marlon Vera and Song Yadong on his current streak, plus previous highlight finishes of Frankie Edgar and Marlon Moraes. The 32-year-old is 10-3 in the UFC with his losses coming to Aljamain Sterling, T.J. Dillashaw and Petr Yan, all of whom are former bantamweight champions.
This is the fifth UFC main event and fifth five-round fight Sandhangen will participate in since 2020. It is Nurmagomedov’s first main event and first five-rounder in the UFC.
Despite the fact the difficulty level of Sandhagen’s UFC opponents greatly exceeds the calibre of Nurmagomedov’s opponents to date, the veteran fighter is more than a two-to-one betting underdog according to the odds.
Sandhagen, the No. 2 contender in the division entering this event, felled three fighters ranked in the top 10 on his current streak; Nurmagomedov does not hold a single victory over a ranked contender but he occupies the No. 10 spot.
The biggest statistical advantage Nurmagomedov holds, on paper, and one that will determine how this matchup could unfold is the minuscule 0.56 significant strikes per minute Nurmagomedov absorbs coinciding with his 76 per cent striking defence.
Sandhagen throws at a higher volume, landing 5.33 significant strikes per minute at 44 per cent accuracy, while absorbing 3.4 at 58 per cent defence. He successfully defends 64 per cent of his opponents’ takedown attempts.
Only one of Nurmagomedov’s UFC opponents has landed double-digit strikes against him during a fight and that was Barcelos who didn’t make it out of the opening round.
The only stoppage loss of Sandhagen’s MMA career was an 88-second rear-naked choke courtesy of Sterling in their 2020 title eliminator. Nurmagomedov’s preferred submission technique is the rear-naked choke. He has six wins via the hold in his career including UFC wins over Sergey Morozov and Brian Kelleher.
Projected UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov bout order below:
MAIN CARD
-- Cory Sandhagen vs. Umar Nurmagomedov
-- Sharabutdin Magomedov vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk
-- Marlon Vera vs. Deiveson Figueiredo
-- Tony Ferguson vs. Michael Chiesa
-- Mackenzie Dern vs. Loopy Godinez
-- Joel Alvarez vs. Elves Brener
PRELIMINARY CARD
-- Azamat Murzakanov vs. Alonzo Menifield
-- Mohammad Yahya vs. Kaue Fernandes
-- Shamil Gaziev vs. Don'Tale Mayes
-- Guram Kutateladze vs. Jordan Vucenic
-- Victoria Dudakova vs. Sam Hughes
-- Jai Herbert vs. Rolando Bedoya
-- Sedriques Dumas vs. Denis Tiuliulin
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