Welcome to Middleweight Month in the UFC!
Beginning with this weekend’s Fight Night card in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia and through to the wrap-up event in Seattle, there are eight contests in the 185-pound weight class set to hit the Octagon, including three of the next four main events.
Though divisional matchups often come in clusters, especially in the lighter weight classes, where the headcounts are higher, a month like this, flush with important matchups serves to have a significant impact on the landscape in the middleweight division. Eight of the 16 athletes stationed in the latest iteration of the rankings are set to compete over the next month, which means the potential for significant change is high as we head into February’s first event.
With that many matchups on tap and the winds of change potentially set to blow through the weight class, it feels like a perfect time to dive into these contests and try to diagnose how things may look once the dust settles and we move towards March.
CRITICAL CLASHES IN SAUDI ARABIA
The penultimate fight on this weekend’s event at anb Arena might be the most singularly intriguing of all the contests on the middleweight schedule for the month ahead.
Coming off a tremendous double spinning backfist knockout win in October at UFC 308, Shara Magomedov faces, in theory, his toughest test to date as he steps in with Michael “Venom” Page, who ventures up to middleweight for this fascinating clash of strikers.
“Shara Bullet” has experienced only success since landing in the UFC and all throughout his MMA career, posting a 4-0 mark in the Octagon and 15-0 record overall. If there have been any criticisms of the unbeaten emerging talent, it’s that he hasn’t exactly been facing a murderer’s row of opposition, as three of his four opponents have been coming off losses, while the other was a short-notice replacement from outside the promotion.
“MVP” is more experienced overall, and while he’s just 1-1 to begin his UFC tenure, he’s 22-3 overall and a compelling dance partner for Magomedov this weekend. The victor won’t necessarily vault into title contention, but a strong effort on either side would establish the winner as someone to pay extremely close attention to going forward.
Saturday’s headliner pits former two-time champ Israel Adesanya against ascending Nassourdine Imavov in a matchup that should provide some clarity regarding where each man fits in the hierarchy at the moment.
It’s impossible to know what to expect from Adesanya at this point, as he steps in for his first non-title bout since beating Anderson Silva at UFC 234 during his meteoric rise to the top of the division. He has lost two straight — albeit to the two men battling for the title at UFC 312 — and is at the age (35) where we often start wondering about what a fighter has left in the tank or left to prove.
But he’s also less than two years removed from sparking Alex Pereira and reclaiming the middleweight strap, so it’s hard to say what to expect from him this weekend.
Imavov enters on a three-fight winning streak, having looked better with each successive victory last year. He rumbled his way through an emotional, foul-filled win over Roman Dolidze in February, finished Jared Cannonier in their main event pairing in June, and then dominated Brendan Allen over three rounds in Paris to advance to 15-4 with one no contest for his career.
He’s strong in every facet of the sport, seems to be growing more comfortable in each phase with every appearance, and his arrow is clearly pointing up at the moment. A big win over Adesanya to start the year would ensure he’s included in the title conversation heading into and coming out of UFC 312, and it might even be enough to make him the No. 1 contender, especially if the champion retains in Sydney.
RUN IT BACK
After battling for the belt during Toronto’s Hoth-like cold snap last January, Dricus Du Plessis and Sean Strickland trade “The Six” for the New South Wales capital and switch roles heading into their championship rematch next weekend.
Du Plessis edged out Strickland at UFC 297, claiming the belt by landing on the happy side of a split decision in a bout where all three judges gave Strickland the final round, which contributed to some feeling like the wrong man won. The South African nonetheless solidified his standing atop the division by submitting Adesanya at UFC 305 in August, while Strickland secured his opportunity to challenge for the title by out-working Paulo Costa over five rounds a couple months earlier at UFC 302, and now the rivals are poised to run it back.
Since the first fight was ultra-competitive and essentially a coin-flip fight on the scorecards, most assume this second meeting will be similar, and that very well could be the case. While their approaches look dramatically different, the champion and challenger are, at their cores, similar fighters that utilize pressure and a good amount of volume to overwhelm their opponents.
The one thing that could be a differentiating point though is the superior power and finishing abilities of Du Plessis, who had only been to the scorecards once before the first encounter.
If “Stillknocks” retains, he’ll have taken out the last two titleholders before him, besting Strickland twice, and put himself in a position to welcome new names into the champion picture. Should Strickland become a two-time champ, we very well could be staring down a trilogy bout between the two later in the year, especially if the fight is close.
Those are very different directions for the division to take, but thankfully, we don’t have to wait that long to find out which road the middleweight ranks will be taking in 2025.
QUALITY CONTESTS, WRONG ALIGNMENT?
There are important middleweight pairings on each of the final two cards of the month, with the most prominent of the group being the main event matchup between Jared Cannonier and Gregory Rodrigues at the UFC APEX on Feb. 15 and the clash between Brendan Allen and Anthony Hernandez taking place one week later in Seattle.
Both are meaningful matchups and the right type of assignment for all parties involved, but one could argue that they feel a little misaligned, with the latter perhaps being better suited and more worthy of main event status.
Although Cannonier is a former title challenger and long-time contender, he has dropped consecutive contests to tumble to No. 8 in the rankings, while Rodrigues currently resides in the “Second 15” and is stepping in with a ranked opponent for the first time in his career.
Conversely, Allen sits one spot behind Cannonier and had a seven-fight winning streak snapped last time out by Imavov, and Hernandez, who is ranked No. 12, enters their meeting on a six-fight winning streak, most recently trouncing Michel Pereira in his initial main event assignment. Not only do Allen and Hernandez profile as the competitors with the most upside of the quartet at the moment, but they also have history with one another, having battled it out for the vacant LFA middleweight belt several years ago, giving the promotion a further way of selling the main event.
By the way, Hernandez won the first meeting by unanimous decision, and Allen has always wanted a chance to avenge the loss.
Regardless of where they’re situated on their respective cards, how these two fights play out will further contribute to the potential reshuffling of things in the 185-pound ranks heading into March and the rest of the year.
AN EXCITING PROSPECT TO WATCH
One last name to know amidst this smorgasbord of middleweight names competing in February is Mansur Abdul-Malik.
The 27-year-old earned his place on the UFC roster with a second-round stoppage win over Wes Schultz last August on Dana White’s Contender Series and then took out fellow DWCS alum Dusko Todorovic in his promotional debut three months later to move to 7-0 overall.
While still noticeably green and unpolished, it’s impossible not to recognize the raw talent and abundance of upside the Xtreme Couture product has exhibited to this point in his career. XC head coach Eric Nicksick raves about Abdul-Malik’s athleticism, and his matchup with Antonio Trocoli in Seattle should be another opportunity to gauge where he’s at in his development as he embarks on his first full year on the UFC roster.
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