Joaquin Buckley poised to make big statement

This isn’t the first time it’s felt like Joaquin Buckley was on the verge of something.

In October 2020, competing on an Abu Dhabi Fight Night card not open to the public at the height of a global pandemic, Buckley reached just about every smartphone on the planet with a viral, jaw-dropping, spinning back kick knockout that would have seemed a bit rich if you saw it in a movie:

A month later at UFC 255, Buckley folded an undefeated Jordan Wright 18 seconds into the second round, earning his second straight performance-of-the-night bonus and announcing his arrival as a middleweight contender. But the hype train came to a screeching halt his next time out, when Buckley got caught with an Alessio Di Chirico head kick while level changing, sending him back into the 185-pound fray.

Undeterred, Buckley returned later that year and strung together three victories in 13 months — including two more performance-of-the-night bonuses — rocketing himself back up the middleweight ladder. But his progress stalled yet again as he began to face ranked opponents, and he ended 2022 with a pair of dispiriting losses.

Now, Buckley’s reemerged once more — this time as a welterweight on a tear through the division. He’s won five straight since moving to 170, punctuated by a thunderous knockout of Stephen Thompson at UFC 307 in October. Within a year-and-a-half, Buckley’s already climbed into his new division’s top 10.

Active as ever, Buckley’s turning around only two months later against the most renowned opponent he’s ever faced — three-time welterweight title challenger Colby Covington, his foe in the main event of Saturday’s UFC Fight Night in Tampa, Fla. It begs the question — is this when Buckley finally breaks through?

Circumstances are certainly lining up in his favour. Buckley was originally scheduled to face Ian Machado Garry this weekend, but the then-undefeated Irish striker was bumped up a week to fill in for injured welterweight champion Belal Muhammad against Kazakhstani terminator Shavkat Rakhmonov at UFC 310. And while Garry lost that fight thanks to Rakhmonov’s relentless control along the fence and on the mat, he arguably won the stand-up battle and demonstrated the rangey, accurate striking that could have given Buckley trouble.

Instead, Buckley now faces Covington — a higher-ranked opponent and more favourable matchup taking a short-notice fight. A +220 underdog against Garry, Buckley’s now a -300 favourite vs. Covington.

That’s because, at 36, this version of Covington is severely diminished from the one many fans remember. He’s washed up at worst and on the downslope of his career at best. Meanwhile, Buckley’s square in his prime and still getting better, having just out-struck Thompson — one of the most proficient strikers in the sport — through two rounds before knocking him out.

Yet, Covington’s name still carries weight — and would still look impressive on Buckley’s Tapology page. Despite a year of inactivity, Covington’s ranked No. 6 in the division and one of its more recognizable fighters thanks to his performative villainy outside the octagon. A win over him this Saturday would be the biggest of Buckley’s career; not to mention one that resonates more meaningfully with casual fans. And it could catapult him into welterweight’s top five.

That would be a welcome sign for the UFC in a division that has long been dominated by wrestlers. Buckley’s as explosive and dynamic of an athlete as you’ll find in combat sports, looking the part with a bodybuilder’s physique and backing it up by earning 70 per cent of his wins via knockout.

And Buckley’s shown flashes of being more than merely a rote, swing-for-the-fences slugger looking to land a lucky shot. His finish of Thompson, which saw Buckley level change and catch the veteran with a punishing, winging right as he moved along the fence, was a carbon copy of a set-up he attempted at the end of the second round that just missed. After the fight, Buckley said he altered his footwork between rounds to take space away from Thompson and force him into the shot’s path when he threw it again.

It's a sign of his development that Buckley’s making in-fight adjustments like that. But his most considerable adjustment has been moving down to welterweight. Seeing the size mismatch of Buckey’s fights at middleweight is jarring in hindsight. He’s admitted he was cutting minimal weight while fighting at 185 — sometimes as few as five pounds.

While no doubt a healthier choice for his longevity, fighting middleweights essentially guaranteed Buckley would be the smaller individual in any matchup UFC gave him. It’s a tough way to climb a division. And if you can’t beat the fighters cutting large amounts of weight to gain an advantage, you might as well join them.

The challenge is doing so without suffering a significant detriment to performance. And Buckley’s record since dropping down suggests he and his team have found the right approach. He’s looked fine on the scales and earlier this year, 24 hours before halting Nursulton Ruziboev’s nine-fight win streak, took the opportunity to mock those who suggested he’d struggle with the weight cut:

At 170, Buckley’s power has been playing up massively and he’s successfully defended four of the five takedowns attempted on him. In turn, he’s completed two-thirds of the takedowns he’s shot for and won the control time battle in all five of his fights. Against Thompson, Buckley hit four takedowns, spent nearly five minutes in top control, and still finished the fight with a knockout.

Of course, taking down and controlling Covington ought to be another challenge altogether. Covington’s second among active welterweights in control and top position time, averaging nearly four takedowns per fight while successfully defending two-thirds of the takedowns attempted against him. Buckley will likely want to keep things standing rather than hitting the mat with a former Div. 1 All-American wrestler.

And that should be achievable considering Buckley’s marked advantages in speed, athleticism and power. Buckley just proved against Thompson that he can carry heavy hands deep into a fight. Whether it’s early or in later rounds, it’s easy to envision a world in which Covington ends up on the wrong side of another one of Buckley’s highlight reel finishes.

There was once a time when Covington was a relentless, frustrating fighter to deal with, relying on a deep cardio reservoir to weaponize pace and wear down his opponents. He’d fight on the front foot with constant pressure and chain together takedown attempts to get the fight to the mat where he could utilize his superior wrestling to gain top control or threaten submissions. But we haven’t seen that guy since he 50-45’d Jorge Masvidal in 2022.

And we haven’t seen that version of Covington against an opponent in his prime since he decisioned Bryan Barberena eight years ago. That was the last time Covington beat a fighter younger than him. His last time out, in an uninspiring, unanimous decision loss to Leon Edwards nearly a calendar year ago, Covington appeared unusually tentative and gun shy. Some of that could be age (Covington’s 37 in February) and some of it could be inactivity (Covington’s averaged a fight per year since 2020). Regardless, it wasn’t a great look.

Which is what makes it so interesting that Covington has accepted this short-notice fight against a younger, more explosive athlete in his prime. It’s a massive risk. But similarly, turning back the clock with a vintage performance would make a massive statement that the MMA world was dearly mistaken in writing Covington off.

Yet, a more likely scenario is that Saturday’s fight is Covington’s last. If he loses, it’s hard to envision a road back to the welterweight title. It may make more sense to close the UFC chapter of his career and transition to WWE where the crude heel persona he’s been refining for years could make him an instant draw.

That’s the fight game. The young eat the old. And that’s Buckley’s job Saturday as he seeks to clarify his path to a title shot. If Buckley beats Covington, he could be matched up again against Garry or get Jack Della Madalena — an Australian who’s undefeated in his last 17 fights — at UFC 312 in Sydney this February.

Another win there — particularly another highlight-reel knockout — would put Buckley right on the championship doorstep. And yet, he’s been here before. There’s no denying Buckley’s athleticism, his potential, his flare for the dramatic. But he hasn’t met the occasion the last two times it has materialized. Improbably, he’s fought his way back to that point. Is this when Joaquin Buckley finally breaks through?